Fund Rakings Update, 2/21/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm  and AMI Tables and Logs


Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FTRNX, Buy FOCPX. 

Stocks were mixed due to weak economy data and firm company earnings. S&P 500 index closed at 1836, down 0.13%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.32%, while Nasdaq composite increased 0.46% for the week. 

S&P 500 failed again to break above the mighty 1850 resistance as seen in the weekly chart below. This may turn the rebound from "V" shape into a "W" shape in the coming week. In that scenario, the index is going to pull back and retest the 28 week moving average. We will see how this unfolds in the coming weeks.  

The effect of sector rotation continues to be felt in our model portfolios. This week, the AMI ranking of FTRNX in SSPP ranking table has dropped to 9 and is replaced with the current number one rank fund, FOCPX, in our SSPP model portfolio.  The portfolio has held the fund for 39 days with a gain of 1.59%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/14/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm  and AMI Tables and Logs


Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAIX, Buy FBIOX. 

Stocks continued to rebound for the second week. S&P 
500 index closed at 1838, up 2.32%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.28%, and Nasdaq composite increased 2.86% for the week. 

In the weekly chart, we can see the "V" shape rebound of S&P 500 index off its 28 week MA. The index has failed four times to break above 1850 resistance before this pull back. It will be interesting to see whether the index breaks the resistance next week.  

Notice that the health care and technology sectors have been very strong in the past few weeks.  The sector rotation and the bad weather has pushed down the AMI ranking of FSAIX out of the top 7 in SELECT ranking table, and a signal to replace it with the current number one ranked fund, FBIOX has been issued. 

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/7/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm  and AMI Tables and Logs


Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy FDGRX. 

Stock prices plunged early in the week due to weak manufacturing data and slow auto sales, but rallied by the end of the week. S&P 
500 index closed at 1797, up 0.81%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.61%, and Nasdaq composite increased 0.54% for the week. 

In the weekly chart, we can see S&P 500 index decisively bounced off the 28 week MA as it has done in the past. The uptrend remains as long as the index holds above its support. 

This correction has pushed down the AMI ranking of ARGFX out of the top 7 in RSP ranking table, and a signal to replace it with Fidelity growth company (FDGRX) fund is generated for RSP model portfolio. We have held ARGFX for 53 days with a loss of 1.7%.  

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/31/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm  and AMI Tables and Logs


Another down week due to worries about emerging markets. S&P 500 index closed at 17820, down 0.43%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.14%, and Nasdaq composite decreased 0.59% for the week. 

It is encouraging to see S&P 500 index reached 1770 level and bounced back at the closing of the week in the weekly chart. On the upside, the 28 week moving average stands at 1750, and the index has bounced off from the 28 week MA three times in the past year. On the downside, however, the momentum are deteriorating in both daily and weekly charts, which indicates that the index may be hovering around the 28 week MA for a while.     

Weekly Chart of S&P500 Index

As this pull back is induced by the rout in emerging markets, let's take a look at the weekly chart of Fidelity emerging market fund, FEMKX. FEMKX peaked in mid October at $24.71, and heading downward ever since.  It bounced off from 28 week MA in mid November and stayed above the support for two months before its final plunge last week. Its momentum indicator, slow STO[15, 1], dipped below 75 in late December, 2013 and our FEMKX timing system issued a sell signal and move to cash position at the time. Looking back, the signal maybe early but turns out to be a good call. 

Weekly Chart of FEMKX