Fund Rankings Update, 12/26/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell INP, buy FXI.

Stocks trended higher during this short holiday trading week as investors were in a festive mood. Economy data also helped in boosting the markets: US economy was unexpectedly strong as the third quarter GDP  was revised upward to 5% while weekly job report showed lower jobless claims and consumer sentiment improved.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2088, up 0.88%.  Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 0.87%.   

The upward momentum looks to carry the S&P 500 index higher into early next year as shown in the weekly chart below.  Looking forwards to 2015, we see low oil prices and strong US dollars to continue with interest rate creeping up. The stock volatility will increase and vigilant is warranted as this rally has been more than three year old. Wish everyone a happy and prosper new year!

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/19/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Federal Reserve's "patient in raising interest" announcement on Wednesday boosted investors' sentiment and reverse the slide of stock prices in last week. S&P 500 index closed at 2070, up 3.41%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.03%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 2.4%.

S&P 500 index rebounded nicely from its 28 week moving average as seen in the weekly chart below. The chart pattern of the past 2 week is very similar to what happened in early April. As the index is still above its trend line with high upward momentum, we can expect the continuation of the uptrend.  

Some readers have asked me about when and at what price the oil price will bottom out. Looking at the weekly chart of $WTIC, one can find that the index is still trending down will very low momentum. Usually to spot a trend reversal in the chart, we need a few things: a "W" pattern in the price movement, a positive cross over in "MACD" indicator, and "STO" climbs above the extreme over sold level of 20. A bottom is formed before the trend reversal and that's why we only know the bottom after it was formed and can not tell it "during" its formation. With the current strong plunge in $WTIC, it is likely that the index will keep falling and eventually bounces back to hit the resistance by its 28 week moving average then falls back down to the second bottom before it forms a "W". It is the second bottom in the "W" pattern that a risk tolerant investor can take advantage of.  However, even if we can spot a bottom, we still do not know how strong the subsequent uptrend is. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of Light Crudel Oil Price

Fund Rankings Update, 12/12/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Collapse of oil prices pull down the major indices.  S&P 500 index closed at 2002, down 3.52%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.783%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.66%.

With the sell off, S&P 500 index has fallen close to its 28 week moving average of 1976. Looking back at early April and late July, we can observe the similar one week sell off in the weekly chart below. If the past experience is of any indication, whether S&P 500 index can rebound from its support next week is important to the continuation of this uptrend. 

As the sharp sell-off  in stock prices is caused by the collapse in oil prices, let's look at the daily chart of the $WTIC. The price of oil has come down since July, and the rate of falling has increased and reached the maximum as shown by the blue lines. At the end of this selling phase, we usually can see the price stabilized and rebound occurs. In the daily candle stick chart, this will happen when the "hammer" pattern shows up and the "MACD" gives a positive cross over.  

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Daily chart of light oil price

Fund Rankings Update, 12/06/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Strong job reports and rebound in oil prices pushed the major indices to record high while technology sectors remained flat.  S&P 500 index closed at 2075, up 0.38%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.73%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.23%.

S&P 500 index appears to be in a consolidation mode. In the weekly chart, its price pattern has flatten out for the past two week. However, the technical picture of the index stays the same, and we expect the up-trend with small consolidation will continue for the next few weeks. 

This is the time a lot of mutual funds and ETFs distribute their dividends and capital gains. I have to manually update the price one fund at a time, and the information may not be readily available. The momentum rankings may display some instability this month. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index