Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks climbed higher along with a bounce in oil prices in this holiday-shorten week to give investors a Christmas gift.  Oil prices rallied on the news that US rig count continued to decrease and the inventory went down surprisingly. Economy data released during the week also booted the rally in stocks as new home sales rose and jobless claims declined in November. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2060, up 2.76%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.47% while NASDAQ composite index increased 2.55%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

In the last four weeks, S&P 500 index has been slowly making lower low and lower high with declining momentum as seen in the weekly chart.  However, the index is in a short term rebound phase due to oversold condition, which propelled it back above the 28 week moving average. As the short term rebound working against the downward bias from intermediate term down trend, we expect the index to move side way with downside support at 2000 and upper resistance at 2100 around its 28 week moving average for the next couple of weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks started the week strong in anticipation of   Federal Reserve's raising interest rate for the first time in 10 years. On Wednesday, in its announcement after FOMC meeting, the FED raised the Fed fund rate by 0.25% and made it clear that the subsequent rate hike will be gradual and data driven.  Traders and Investors were encouraged by FED's dovish stance and rallied immediately. Unfortunately, the rally fell apart on Thursday and Friday, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 600 points in those two days. Plunging oil prices, which fell below $35 a barrel, and quadruple witching day were attributed to be the culprit of the sharp drop in stock prices.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2005, down 0.34%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.79% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.21%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A bearish reversal showed up in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. After a long red candle a week before, the index tried to rallied back above its 28 week moving average.  However, the bearish sentiment still dominates the trading floor and overpowering the bull forcing the index to fall back down and end up below where it began. With the index staying below its trend line and heading downward with declining momentum, we expect the volatility will last for anther few weeks and no Santa rally this year.  

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWK.

Plunging oil prices handed stock market a brutal week. Oil price went below $36 a barrel, down 11% for the week. On Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 300 points. With the first rate hike by Federal Reserve on the horizon, investors rushed to sideline for a wait-and-see position.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2012, down 3.798%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.268% while NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.06%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A big plunge in stock prices has forced a long red candle in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index has fell below its 28 week moving average.  Again, it is the action after either a big jump or big loss that indicates the strength of the markets. Investors have anticipate a rate hike by Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this coming Tuesday. Market reaction to the event is critical and will determine the direction for the next six months.

An trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, the average momentum indicator(AMI) of EWY has turned negative even though its AMI ranking is still above the threshold. We will replace the fund with the current number one1 fund, EWK, in the iETF ranking table. The model portfolio has held EWY for 46 days with a loss of 9.2%. Performance of iETF model portfolio has lagged the other model portfolios since its inception. Global funds have experienced larger volatility influenced by not only the  market condition but also the currency exchange rate. 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/4/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Whether Federal Reserve will raise interest rate in its next FOMC meeting on December 15 has put markets on edge and in a wait and see holding pattern.  On Tuesday, stocks went up thinking Fed will not raise interest rate in December, but on Wednesday and Thursday stock markets turned sharply down thinking Fed will raise interest rate. Interestingly, the same thinking that Fed will hike interest rate in December pulled the markets back up on Friday to close the week flat.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2091, up 0.08%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28% while NASDAQ composite index increased 0.29%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index closed flat for the second week as shown in the weekly chart waiting for the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve 10 days from now. The index appears to be holding up firmly above the support level with increasing momentum. The index went down during the week to test its 28 week moving average and successfully came back up to where it was. We expect the index to be flat before the rate hike decision from the FED.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/27/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05088, Buy 42627 (see RSP ranking table) .

Following Thanksgiving tradition, major stock indices were flat this shortened trading week. Economy data showed growing personal income, falling jobless claim and upward revision of 3rd quarter GDP.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2090, up 0.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.14% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.44%.

Weekly chat of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index stabilized around the recent high level to reduce the volatility in the weekly chart. In the past years, "Santa Rally" usually moved the market higher through out December into Christmas. This year, we have yet to see any indication of "Santa Rally". As we still have four weeks to go before Christmas, hopefully Santa can come in time to bring gift to the markets.

This week another model portfolio moved away from defensive position. A trading signal occurred in RSP model portfolio to sell Black Rock US debt index (05088) and buy SSGA REIT index (42627) due to momentum ranking change. We have held 05088 for 91 days with a gain of 0.3%.  

Fund Rankings Update, 11/20/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell IUTIX, Buy JLVIX.

After last week's sharp drop and terrorist attacks in Paris, stocks rallied this week, recovered most of the lost of last week.  Markets seemed to be prepared for the interest rate hike in December as indicated in Fed's meeting minutes released on Wednesday.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2089, up 3.35%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.71%  and Nasdaq composite index increased 3.59%. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Strong rally pushed S&P 500 index back above its 28 week moving average as shown in the weekly chart. Momentum of S&P 500 index is trending higher and the test of the support level looks to be successful to sustain the up trend. Next step is for the index to break above its previous high of 2125 level.

As market condition turned positive, more model portfolios have moved away from defensive positions. This week, a trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio to sell  US treasury index, IUTIX, and buy Large equity fund, JLVIX, as IUTIX has fallen below top 5 ranks in the HSA ranking table. We have held IUTIX since beginning of September with a loss of 0.45%. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/13/2105

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 After six weeks of advance, stocks finally took a breather but fail sharply lower.  Worries about a rate hike in December haunted the markets through out the week after strong job report last Friday. Technology sector and retail sector were dragged down the most by negative earning reports from CISCO and Norstrom.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2023, down 3.63%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.71% and Nasdaq composite index fell the most by decreasing 4.26%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A long red candle showed up this week in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index reflecting the overwhelming negative sentiment in the market. In the past two weeks, I have discussed the test of the support level after S&P 500 index breaking above its 28 moving average.  A successful test is needed to keep the momentum going and sustain the up trend. Ideally we would like the pull back to be mild and not as disruptive, but this time the rally on the way up was too fast so the pull back we get is sharp and violent. As the index fell below the support, it is critical to see if it can pick itself up and climb back above its 28 week moving average in the next couple of weeks. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/06/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IGM.
Major indices continued to march higher for the sixth week.  Job report Friday showed US economy added more than 270,000 jobs in October far better than the expected 185,000. The job report not only provided evidence that US economy growth is still on track, it also provided ammunition  for FED to raise interest rate in December. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2099, up 0.95%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 1.85%

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 Three weeks ago, S&P 500 index climbed above it 28 week moving average and its STO went higher than 50 signaling the close of the 9 week correction phase. The next question is whether the index can maintain its momentum and resume the up trend is had before the correction. In the last two blogs, I have said that the rally has been very strong and the index has move up very fast. It will be healthier if the index can take a pause for a couple of weeks to digest its gain and move higher afterwards.  At the same time, the index is approaching the resistance of previous high in 2125 area so some consolidation action are expected. 

Another model portfolio move from the cash position to long equity position. sETF model portfolio has met its 30 day holding threshold for cash position and move to buy the current number 1 rank fund, IGM, in the sETF table. With this change, only two model portfolios, HSA and RSP, are left to hold more defensive funds.


 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/30/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy FRESX.
Trading signal occurs inETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IGM.

Major indices took a breather after 4 weeks of strong rally.  Stock price movement during the week were mostly affected by the mixed company earning reports.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2079, up 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 0.43%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

As seen in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has gone up more than 200 points from the low of 1875 in five weeks.  The weekly momentum index, STO, stands at 74  and is approaching the overbought area above 80.  As the index breaks above the resistance line for the first time, it will usually comes back down to test it as the resistance level becomes the support level.  If the test is succesfully, the index will then continue to move higher.

Two tradings signals occurred in our model portfolio this week due the strong rally and relief of the holding period. In the SSP model portfolio, the trading signal called for buying real estate fund, FRESX after holding cash position for 60 days.  In the ETF model portfolio, trading signal asks for moving out of cash position and move into technology index fund, IGM.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/23/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EWY.
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy EWY.

Encouraged by European Central Bank's announcement to buy back debt and China's rate cut, stocks continued to head higher for the third week.  Technology sector provided the biggest gain among the industrial sectors as big tech companies, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet (Google), all reported better than expected quarterly earnings.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2075, up 2.07%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.97%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has risen 2% above its 28 moving average with the momentum indicator, STO, above the 50 mark. With these condition, the correction phase since mid August has concluded. The development is about one to two weeks ahead of our prediction. With the index rising so fast, we may see the index consolidate above the moving average or even retest the support in the coming weeks.

 As the general market wen up strong for three weeks, the timing indicators in our ranking tables have switched to a more bullish stance. In the iETF ranking table, Korean index fund has turned green and a trading signal was issued to move out of the cash position and move to EWY.  For FEMKX timing model, we use the momentum indicator, STO, as the timing signal. FEMKX timing model has been on the sideline since the end of May and has turned bullish this week as its STO has risen above 50.  After this week, we still have SSPP, ETF, and sETF model potfolios holding the cash positions either due to holding period threshold or negative AMI. As the market condition improves, we expected these model portfolios to move away from the cash position in as well.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 10/16/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Drops in the consumer price index and weekly jobless claim couple with a rise of consumer sentiment help stocks maintaining their upward momentum following last week's strong gain. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2033, up 0.9%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 1.16%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 All major indices have rise up to touch their 28 week moving average. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index has climbed up above the first peak of "W" bottom at 2020 and closed up just a bit above its 28 week moving average. The momentum indicator, STO, has reached 50 from below. If this upward momentum continues for another 2-3 weeks, the correction phase will complete just as we have discussed in the past blogs.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/09/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued marching higher as Alcoa kicked off third quarter earning report season and investors' hope of Fed not raising interest rate this year arised. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2014, up 3.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.72% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.61%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 S&P 500 index formed a double bottom on its weekly chart and closed in on its 28 week moving average. Weekly Momentum indicator is slowly rising but STO is still below 50. The correction phase should complete in another 3 - 4 weeks and we will see how the index behaves afterwards.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/02/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy Cash.

Stocks opened the week with a sell-off and spent the rest of the week climbing back due to bargain hunting and short covering by investors.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1951, up 1.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.97% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 0.75%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 remained in the correction zone trading below its 28 week moving average. A reversal pattern showed up this week indicating that the 1867 low reached five weeks ago may be the bottom of this correction. The index has fallen to this level twice and each time it climbed back and ended up higher. In terms of timing, we still expect the correction to last another four to five weeks such that the volatility subsides and the moving average comes down to 2000 level to meet the index. 

As the correction phase continues, one more model portfolio issue the trading signal to move to side line. This week the AMI of the top rank fund, ITB turned negative and a trading signal was issued to sell ITB and move to Cash.   

Fund Rankings Update, 9/25/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy Cash.
 
Investors continued the selling from last week before Fed Chair Janet Yellen's remark Friday that the Fed is still on track to raise rate this year.  Report on better than expected second quarter GDP also boosted investors confidence about US economy.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1908, down 1.36%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 2.92%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Here we are, six weeks into this correction. S&P 500 index is trading in 2000 - 1900 range, and its momentum looks to be stabilized on the lower end. Among the sectors, we are seeing bio tech index plunged due to Hillary Clinton's price gouging comment on drug prices, and Volkswagen's (VW) stock prices fell sharply after the company admitted its cheating in Federal emission test.  I think we are about  half way into this correction phase. The 28 week moving average for S&P 500 index currently stands at 2037 and acts as a resistance.  As the index stays in the trading range for anther few weeks, we will see the moving average come down close to 2000 and will provide the index a chance to break the resistance. We will see how this all play out in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/18/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued to go higher at the beginning of the week due to strong retail sales and rebound in oil prices. However, the Fed's decision to not raise interest rate on Thursday caused concern about the stablility of the global economy. Stocks plunged Thursday and Friday, and ended up mostly lower for the week. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1958, down 0.15%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% while Nasdaq composite index ended up a bit higher by increasing 0.1%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 A "shooting star" pattern showed up in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index this week. The index briefly broke the 2000 resistance level but succumbed to selling pressure and closed the week a bit below the opening price.  The reverse pattern indicates that the negative sentiment in the market remains strong and traders are waiting for opportunity to sell their holdings. As discussed in the last couple blogs, we expect the index to remain below the 28 week moving average for another 4 or 5 weeks before most of the selling dissipates.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/11/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rebounded but still with big swing during this holiday-shorten week. China's economy growth and timing of Fed's first rate hike since 2006 are still the major concern on investors' mind.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1961, up 2.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.05% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.96%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has been below its trend line for four weeks as seen in the weekly chart. This week we saw the index attempted to break and fail again at the 2000 resistance level.  It took the index 12 weeks to climb back above the trend line in 2011 correction so it may take about the same time to climb back this time. Judging from the trading pattern in the past two week, this is a very likely scenario. If this pans out, we will be in time for a year end rally.  As we are mostly out of the markets to avoid the further down side right now, we can wait  for the opportunity to get back in later.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/4/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks declined with same high volatility due to lingering concern about slow down in China's economy and worries abut Fed's first rate hike.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1921, down 3.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.25% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 2.99%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 S&P 500 index failed to climbed above 2000 to get a rebound, in turn, it went back to retest the 1900 level this past week. As S&P 500 index did not get a bounce this week, wee can rule out a "V" shape rebound like we had in October last year.  This correction looks to be more like the correction we had in August - October, 2011.  At that time, the index fell 18% from the high of 1350 to 1100 and stayed below the trend line for two and half months. This rally has been more than 2 years long and is due for a meaningful correction. The best scenario is for the index to hold the 1900 level and traded between 1900 and 2000 for a few weeks before meeting the trend line. The index is currently trading at the lower end of this channel and we will see how it goes in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/28/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy Cash
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKASX, Buy IUTIX
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05084, Buy05088

Stocks experienced wild ride this past week. 10 minute into the first trading day, Dow Jones Industrial average plunged more than 1000 points while closed the day only 500 points down. On Tuesday, DJIA went up more than 400 points before the last hour selling and ended down 200 points. Investor sentiment finally turned positive and major indices rallied on Wednesday and Thuraday with help on company merger news and strong US second quarter GDP.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1988, up 0.91%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.11% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.2%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has formed a long tail "Hammer" pattern in its weekly chart similar to the pattern in October 2014. However, the index is further below its trend line this time around and will take longer to recover. The 28 week moving average used to be the support line on the way up, now it becomes the resistance, and the index has to break the resistance to the end this correction.  Next week's trading is critical to see if the index will have a "V" shape recovery or not.  

Due to the market sell-off, three trading signals were issued this week in SSPP, HSA and RSP model portfolios separately to move to cash or defensive positions (see "Trading Logs" page for detail). With these trading signals, all the model portfolios are either in defensive position or cash position. The last time this happened was in August - October, 2011 when S&P 500 index endured a 21 % correction for 3 months.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/21/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FSRPX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IDU
Trading signal occurs in sETFT model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy ITB
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWK, Buy Cash

Stocks plunged this week on worried about global economic slow down and the devaluation of China's currency while ncertainty about the timing of Fed's first rate hike rubbed salt into the wound.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 19701, downp 5.77%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.82% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 6.789%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

From the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has fallen below its trading channel of 2040 - 2130 in a violent way giving this rally a long overdue correction. In the 2014 sell-off during September-October time frame, the index fell from 2019 to 1820 with a 10% drop. At that time the index ended up a hammer formation (candle with long tail and short body) and rebounded right above the trend line in the next week to resume the uptrend. The chart pattern this past week showed a long boy candle which indicates that the selling has not quite ended although we may see some bounce next week.  The next support level on the down site is around 1900.  

The bio tech sector has suffer larger loss in this sell-off and caused position changes in several model portfolios this week. SELECT, ETF, and sETF model portfolios have trading signals issued to sell bio tech funds and move to more defensive funds.  For international funds, iETF model portfolio has issued trading signal to move to cash position. Please see detail in the "Trading logs" page.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/14/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rebounded from the lower bound of the trading channel.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2091, up 0.67%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by increasing 0.09%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/7/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks retreated broadly this week on concern of rate hike and weakness in energy sector.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2077, down 1.25%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.79% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 1.65%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/31/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks opened lower on concern of China's stock market slide. However, they managed to closed higher as investors turnEd  their attention to US economy growth as the week progressed.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2103, up 1.16%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 0.69% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by increasing 0.78%.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/24/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Relief about Greece was replaced with worries about company earnings and global economy growth. Stocks opened the week higher but declined through out the rest of the week.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2079, down 2.21%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.86% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 2.33%.

In the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has given up all the gain from the week before and has fallen back to its 28 week moving average. The tug of war between bull and bear is still in play, and we are still stuck in this flat trading channel between 2040 to 2120.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankigns Update, 7/17/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIEUX, Buy FCNTX

Greece avoided the exit from euro zone by largely yielding to creditors' deman. The agreement removed the uncertainty in the market and rallied the global stock market at the beginning of the week. Stocks continued going higher throughout the week helped by the strong earning performance from technology sectors.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2126, up 2.41%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.84% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 4.25%.

After making a small "Hammer" candle stick pattern last week, S&P 500 index rebounded strongly from its 28 week moving average. The index has been in this flat consolidation mode trading between the channdel from 2040 to 2120 for the past five months. The strength of this uptrend can be seen from the weekly chart that the index has stayed above its trendline and bounced back up every time it touches or dipped below the trend line. If the index breaks above 2140, the flat consolidation phase will be over and the market will tend higher. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 The Fidelity Europe fund, FIEUX, in the SSPP ranking table can not keep its momentum going and the AMI rank has fallen below top 7 ranks. A trading signal is triggered to sell FIEUX and replace it with the current top one rank fund, Fidelity Contra fund (FCNTX). We have held FIEUX for only 46 days with a loss of 0.1%.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/10/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWK

Stocks largely influenced by Greek saga, opened  the week sharply lower again after a "No" vote in Greece referendum rejecting the austerity measure. Major indices plunged further due to slide in Chinese stock market and a system glitch that halted the trading in New York Stock Exchange before rebounded sharply Friday.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2076, down 0.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.17% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 0.23%

The S&P 500 index has made a small "Hammer" candle stick pattern in the weekly chart while closed the week a bit below its 28 week moving average. The momentum indicator is falling and has dipped below the neutral mark of 50. Whether S&P 500 index can rebound from here next week is critical in determining the continuation of the up trend.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart below showed the collapse of FXI in the past month. The index fund made a new high at $52.58 after the sharp rise from $43 in late March but failed to keep the gain at $48 and plunged below its 28 week moving average this week. The large volatility caused it to drop out of the top 7 ranks in iETF AMI ranking table and a trading signal was issued for iETF model portfolio to sell FXI and buy into EWK. The FXI has been held for 193 days with a gain of 2.63%.

Weekly chart of FXI

Fund Rankings Update, 7/3/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks open the week sharply lower due to Greek debt crisis and struggled to climb back for the rest of the short trading week.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2076, down 1.18%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.21% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 1.4%.

Weekly chart of  S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/26/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks open the week higher but weighed down by ongoing Greek debt saga. However, positive existing and new home sales in US provided a glimpse of hope for the second half of the year.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2101, down 0.4%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.38% and Nasdaq composite index ended up lower by decreasing 0.7%. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Technical picture of S&P 500 index remains the same.  In the weekly chart, the index still stays above its 28 week moving average, while the momentum has stopped falling. It appears that market is awaiting the outcome from Greek debt situation, and we just have to see how that plays out.  

Fund Rankings Update, 6/19/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Dovish message on short term interest rate from Fed policy meeting Wednesday boost investor sentiment while worries about Greece' debt crisis subsided a bit this week.  Stocks opened lower on Monday but quickly rebounded and climbed higher the next three days before profit taking on Friday.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2109, up 0.76%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 1.3%. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

In the past two weeks, S&P 500 index has rebounded from the 28 week moving average supporting trend line. The index has been "flat" since February, trading between 2040 to 2120. As discussed before, the trend line support of the index appears to be very strong, while its momentum is decreasing. The "flat" correction will continue for another few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 06/12/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Greece' debt crisis dominated the sentiment on Wall street even though favorable data showed US economy expanded in May with strong retail sales and consumer sentiment.  After two down days, Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 230 points on Wednesday and rose modestly on Thursday. Profit taking and concern on global economy pulled down the stock market Friday.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2094, up 0.06%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28% while Nasdaq composite index ended up almost flat by decreasing only 0.34%. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the momentum of the index is heading downwards since mid May while the index is flat trading around 2100 since February and magically stays above its 28 week moving average. It looks like the index is in a flat correction mode where the index stays in a horizontal trading channel while the momentum indicator falls to over sold condition. As discussed last week, we expect the STO indicator to fall below 50 and the trend less pattern to last for another few weeks.