YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: January 2015

Fund Rankings Update, 1/30/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Company earnings were impacted by slow down in Europe and stronger US dollar. Investors sentiment swing to negative starting Tuesday and stay negative through out the week. S&P 500 index closed at 1995, down 2.77%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.87%, while Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.58%.

The sharp sell-off has given back all the gain we had last week. S&P 500 index closed the week below its 28 week moving average and only a few point above its short term support of 1988 level. Since the beginning of the year, S&P 500 index has been traded between 2064 and 1988. We will find out next week if the market is strong enough to bounce from this level again.

The market volatility has forced investors to act cautiously. Defensive sector funds such as health care, real estate, and utility have stayed strong for the past few weeks while finance and energy sectors have been weak. Interestingly, the light crude oil price looks to be building a support at $44 in the past 3 weeks. Of course oil price will not turn around right away after the collapse in the last six months but it has to start somewhere and this may be the turning point.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Weekly chart of Light Crude Oil Price

Fund Rankings Update, 1/23/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a bigger than expected quantitative easing (QE) program to jump start the slowing economy in euro zone. Investors welcomed the easy money policy, and the positive sentiment drove up the major stock indices. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2051, up 1.6%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.92%, while Nasdaq composite index increased 2.66%. Going forward, the QE from ECB will lower the value of euro and drive up the equity value in Europe, which may impact US company earning and investors' asset allocation.

Technically, we got the rebound we would like to have a week later in S&P 500 index. Both weekly chart and daily chart display favorable pattern for the next few weeks. In the weekly chart, the index bounced above the 28 week moving average again this past week the third time, and poised to rally forward. The technical pattern in the daily chart also indicated that a short term rally is coming: the STO indicator is moving upward above 50 and the MACD is turning positive with the black line cross above the read signal line.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Daily chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/16/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Slow global growth, declining oil prices and jittery about corporate earnings handed Wall street the third week of loss. Volatility still prevailed in the markets and made investors nervous. On Tuesday, Dow Jones Industrial Average went up almost 300 points before plunging more than 400 points to the low of the day and closing just 32 points below the open. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2019, down 1.24%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.27%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.48%.

S&P 500 index did not get the technical rebound as what we have discussed last week. However, the up trend appears to be intact as the index still closed above its 28 week moving average and the momentum indicator is still on the high side.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/9/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Oil prices continued to pull down the markets causing extreme volatility in stock markets with Dow Jones Industrial Average swing more than 600 points during the first full trading week of the year. Stock prices plunged the first two days of the week follows by two days of strong rebounds and settled down a bit on Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2044, down 0.65%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.54%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.48%.

S&P 500 index touched the 28 week moving average during the week, bounced back and closed above the support line. The price movement formed a "Hammer" candle pattern in the weekly chart that we have discussed before. This "Hammer" pattern (a candle with long tail and short body) can be seen several times in the past during this rally, for example, in October 2014, August, 2014, February 2014, October 2013, .etc.. And each time S&P 500 index moved higher for another few weeks after the "Hammer" pattern occurs. Of course, past experience does not guaranty the future outcome, but it will be interesting to see whether the index behave the same way as in the past.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/2/2015

Traders sold in the last day of 2014 to lock in the gain for the year in this shorter trading week. Disappointing manufacturing and construction data did not help stock prices either. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2058, down 1.46%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.22%, and Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.67%.

Technical picture of S&P 500 index stays the same as last week, with price remains above its 28 week moving average and high upward momentum. In the US sectors, biotech, and real estate are still strong while energy related sectors continue to be weak and expected to remain weak for a while. A trading signal was generated in RSP model portfolio this week. FCNTX was pushed out of 7 ranks, and is replaced by the current number one ranked fund, SSGA REIT index.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index