Fund Rankings Update, 2/23/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Market volatility remained in a high state as stocks experienced large daily swing.  Worries about higher interest rate pushed down the stock prices while strong economy fundamental moved the markets up.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2747, up 0.55%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.36% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.35%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index advanced modestly higher after closing at 28 week moving average two weeks ago. For a "W" shape recovery, the index will go back down to test the 28 week moving average at 2640. However, the index appears to go higher judging from its daily action in the past week. We should see if this a "V" shape recovery or "W" shape recovery in the next couple weeks.

As the momentum indicator has fallen below the threshold of 75 due to recent volatility, a sell signal was issued in the FEMKX timing system (detail in "Trading Logs" page) to move to cash position. We have held FEMKX for a month with a loss of 2.4%. 

Fund Rankings Update, 2/16/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rebounded sharply after two weeks of deep dives. Volatility receded but still in an elevated state. Technology sectors together with financial and healthcare outperformed the general markets. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2732, up 4.3%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.25% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 5.31%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index redounded from its 28 week moving average as seen in the weekly chart. Large red candles and white candle indicate the elevated volatility. We expect the volatility to continue for another few weeks before the market resume its direction.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/9/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks plunged more than previous week as sell-off continued and volatility reached record high. DJIA had intraday swing of more than 500 points for six days and fell more than 1000 points on Monday and Thursday.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 27622, down 3.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.12% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.53%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell sharply below its 28-week moving average in two weeks and close right at the trend line around 2600 level. The index has plunged 9% from its record high at 2872 two weeks ago. We expect the high fluctuation will continue for another couple of weeks before stocks settle down to a more normal sustainable path. Our trading systems look for intermediate trend and are not that sensitive to the short term abrupt sell-off. Adherent to the trading plan is the best way forward in these kind of situations.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/2/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IAI

Concern about rising interest rate and profit taking handed stocks the biggest weekly drop since January 2016.  Volatility spiked at multi-month high. On Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 600 points. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 27622, down 3.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.12% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.53%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 still stay above its 28-week trend line with strong momentum.  The index has gained more than 50 % in the past 2 two years with only minor consolidation back to trend line. The index was progressing in a more sustainable uptrend before it went parabolic in mid November.  With the sound economy backdrop, we do not view this as onset of direction change but a getting back to a more normal growth path.  Several round number levels with various strength are waiting to support the index from below, and 2600 looks to be a likely candidate. 

A trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio this week. Concern about rising interest rate pushes down the Home construction index fund (ITB) out the top seven ranked funds while boosted financial related index fund (IAI) to the number one ranked fund in the sETF momentum ranking table.  We have held ITB for only two months with a loss of 0.9%. We will buy into IAI and see how it performs.