Fund Rankings Update, 12/28/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Market volatility reached its 10 month high as stocks rebounded sharply this past week. On  Wednesday, Dow Jones Industry Average went down 145 points before reversing itself in the final trading hour and ended up more than 1000 points above its opening price.  Strong Holiday sales seemed to boost investor sentiment this week while government shutdown has not been a negative factor yet.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2485 up 2.86%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.75% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.97%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of 5-year S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index rebounded from its 200 week moving average at 2350 this week. From the 5-year weekly chart above, the index rebounded twice from its 200 week moving average at 1810 in early 2016 after declining 15% from its high of 2134. The index then went on a multi-year bull market reaching the high of 2940 and setting up the sharp plunge that we are experiencing right now. Will the history repeat itself? We will have to see how the index behaves around this critical level. However, as the 28 week moving average of the S&P 500 index is trending downward and its momentum is extremely low, we don't expect the index will reverse itself anytime soon. 

Fund Rankings Update, 12/21/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy CASH
Trading signal occurs in SELECT model: portfolio: Sell FSHCX, Buy FSLXX

Stocks plunged further into bear territory after Fed raised the interest rate by quarter point. Looming government shutdown at midnight Friday also weighed in on investor sentiment.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2416 down 7.05%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.878% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 8.36%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 has plunged more than 17% from its peak at 2940 in September and closed above the round number support at 2400 this week with weekly momentum indicator at its lowest level in more than 5 years. With all the negativity, it is easy to expect the continuation of the down trend. Looking down, there is a 200 week moving average support around 2350 and a stronger support at 2100. We will see how the index react at these critical levels.

With the steep decline and overwhelming negative sentiment, our model portfolios are all moved to either sideline or ultra conservative position. Two trading signals were issued in SSPP and SELECT model portfolios to moved to cash positions. Momentum ranking method is a trend following method, and we will follow what the market is telling us.  

Fund Rankings Update, 12/14/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYH, Buy IDU
Trading signal occurs in sETF model: portfolio: Sell IHF, Buy IDU

Stocks struggled to rebound from the sharp plunge last week. Fear of global economy slowdown weighed in on market sentiments as weak economic data trickled in from China, Germany and France over the week.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2599 down 1.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.18% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.84%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 turned in an impressive reversal candle stick pattern in the daily chart on Monday. The index initially went down 47 points to 2583, but miraculously reversed itself and ended up 7 points higher at 2637.  However, negative sentiment prevailed and pulled the market down for another week. On the bright side, the index closed this week right at the 2600 support level. Hopefully Santa will bring some optimism to the market to reinforce this support level. 

As market down trend continues, two of our model portfolios have changed their holdings to move to even more defensive positions. With  negative average momentum indices (AMIs), ETF and sETF model portfolios have signaled to sell their current holdings and move to utility index fund, IDU.  

This month is when fund companies distribute their year-end dividend and capital gains. These distributions greatly affect the momentum ranking calculation, and I have tried to take them into account as accurately as I can.  However, these data are not publicly available and not accurate even if they are available. Please noted the rankings may have larger error margin during this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/7/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks declined sharply as elevated volatility persisted.  Trade dispute with China and concern about economy slowdown dominate the sentiment of investors.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2633 down 4.60%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.5% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.93%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell sharply after the attempt to break above its resistance this past week. The index is clearly in the bear market with trend line sloping downwards as seen in the weekly chart, and the weekly momentum indicator, STO, going back down toward the oversold region. Holding the support at 2620 level is the best we can hopeful for now. Our market outlook has turned negative since beginning of November when the index failed to close above its 28 week moving average. It will remain negative before the index breaking and closing above its resistance. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/30/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Major indices rebounded from their oversold levels encouraged by positive Thanksgiving sales data and Fed chair's comment about interest rate being close to neutral level.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2760 up 4.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.16% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 5.64%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Even with the strong rebound from ~2620 supporting level, the S&P 500 index still close below its 28 week moving average as seen in the weekly chart. The weekly momentum indicator has bounced off the threshold of 20 but is still not out of the wood yet. As the trend line is sloping down and the index has not been able to close above the resistance, we expect S&P 500 index to stay below trading between the trend line resistance and the supporting level for another few weeks.