YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: 2019

Fund Rankings Update, 12/27/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks advanced for another record close over the holiday shorten trading week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3240 up 0.58%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.67% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.91%. Note that S&P 500 index stands at 6.8% above its weekly trend line and showing parabolic ascending pattern.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/20/2019

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VTRIX, Buy VVIAX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EWJ, Buy IBB

Upward momentum carried stocks to record high as S&P 500 index stands at 6.7% above its trend line. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3221 up 1.65%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.14% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.18%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/13/2019

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IBB
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42626, Buy FLPSX

News that US and China have reached a phase one trade deal even though without much detail, keep the stock markets afloat for another week. However, November retail sales went down 0.1% and worst than expected Jobless report kept the markets in check. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3168 up 0.73%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average and technology laden NASDAQ composite index gained 0.43% and 0.91% respectively.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index continue to pull away from its 28 week moving average ant stands at 5.5% above the trend line. The index still possess extreme high momentum and may carry it higher till the end of the year. As the index advances higher and moves further away from its trend line, more caution is needed. History has taught us that pull back is usually much more intense and severe than moving-up as indicated by the long red candles on the chart above.

Two trading signals occurs in the model portfolios due to momentum ranking changes. With the recent surge in Bio-tech and small cap stocks, holdings in sETF and RSP model portfolios will be replaced with IBB and FLPSX.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/6/2019

Positive job reports on Friday pulled the stocks up in the otherwise down week due to negative comments about the US-China trade talk from White House. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3145 up 0.16%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average and technology laden NASDAQ composite index lost 0.13% and 0.1% respectively.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Our technical outlook for the market remains the same. As S&P 500 index forming a topping formation with increasing volatility, we expect a short term pullback or side way movement going forward. December is also the month when funds distribute their year-end dividends which distorted the accuracy of AMI rankings. I will keep the data as updated as possible but some distortions are inevitable as dividend information for funds usually are not released before their distribution.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/29/2019

Stocks resumed its advance with optimism on US-China trade talk and positive economic data on durable good order, new home sales and upward revision of GDP. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3140 up 0.99%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.63% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.71%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index closed at a record high of 3140, 5.4% above its 28 week exponential moving average. Caution is needed if the index keeps climbing higher without pull back to digest its lofty gain since late September.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/22/2019

As markets were light on economic data and company earning reports, stocks took a breather after six week of advancing higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3110 down 0.33%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.46% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.25%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

As discussed last week, S&P 500 index moved side way and tried to digest its lofty again this past week. After rebounding from 2855 in late September, S&P 500 index has climbed 255 points higher. Momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is still at an elevated level and we think a pull back will be short-lived and healthy to the continuation of the up-trend.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/15/2019

Stocks continued to march higher for the sixth week as investors still hoping for a "phase one" trade deal between US and China. On Friday, White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow told reporters that negotiations were coming down to "short strokes". For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3120 up 0.89%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.17% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.77%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index - 11/15/2019

S&P 500 index continued to make record high after breaking above the 3020-3030 resistance level three weeks ago. The index has went up non-stop for six weeks and is currently 5.5% above its 28 week moving average. It is likely that the index will take a brake either moving side way or have a short term pull back in the next couple weeks to digest its recent gain.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/08/2019

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FPBFX
Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NBRIX, Buy VTRIX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYR, Buy EWJ

Stocks largely influenced by the US-China trade negotiation this week. Optimism about a "phase one" trade deal and a roll back of tariffs boosted investors' sentiment even though it was toned down by White House later in the week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3093 up 0.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.22% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.06%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 is now 5% above its 28 week moving average. Both the index and its momentum indicator are making higher highs and we expect the up-trend to continue. However, caution is needed if the index keep pulling away and is more than 6% above its 28 week moving average.

As long term interest rate rises, the dividend from utility and real estate stocks becomes less appealing to investors. Several trading signals occurs in our model portfolios to move out of utility and real estate funds due to this reason.

Most mutual funds also distribute year-end dividend during this period, and we expected higher volatility in fund rankings due not to market volatility but to data availability and updates.

Fund Rankings Update, 11/1/2019

Stocks rose for the fourth week and reached record high with Fed cutting interest rate on Wednesday and stronger than expected job report on Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3066 up 1.47%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.44% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.74%

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index reached record high as discussed in the blog last week. The index is comfortably above its 28 week moving average, and its momentum index is in the oversold region marching higher. We expect that the overall trend represented by the 28 week moving average will continue advancing higher at the current rate. However, the rally is four week old and we may see some short term digestion in the next couple of week.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/25/2019

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42634, Buy 42626

Stocks rose for the third week with company earnings driving the market direction. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3022 up 1.22%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.9%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After three weeks of advance, S&P 500 index closed at 3022 and poised to reach record high next week. As observed in the weekly chart, the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is moving back above 80 and heading higher. We expect the index to move higher in the next few weeks.

A trading signal occurs in the RSP ranking table due to momentum ranking change. PIMCO CORE PLUS BOND (42634) has fallen below the holding threshold in the ranking table and we will replace it with the current number one rank fund, SS WRLD DEV EXUS IDX (42626), in RSP ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/18/2019

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWL, Buy EWT

Stocks closed modestly higher as companies started to report quarterly earnings. Positive earning surprise from JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs boosted the markets on Tuesday while revenue miss from IBM weigh down on the market. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2986 up 0.54%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.17% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.4%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Short term technical picture of S&P 500 index stays about the same as last week but with momentum indicator turning a little bit upward. As the index is still above 28 week moving average, we may see a rally towards year end if the momentum indicator continue to rise.

A trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio this week to change position from Switzerland country fund (EWL) to Taiwan fund (EWT) due to momentum change.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/11/2019

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IHI, Buy ITB

Market sentiment was driven majorly by uncertainty in US-China trade negotiation this week. Rumors about US' plan on black listing Chinese companies and limiting US pension fund investment in China have plunged the major stock indices mid-week. However, signs of progress in the trade talk pushed the major indices higher at the end of the week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2970 up 0.62%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.91% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.93%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went down below its 28 week moving average in mid-week but ended up above the trend line support and even closed higher than it started. It is encouraging to see that this is the fourth time the index has successfully tested the 2940 support in the past 5 weeks and the second time the index went into 2940-2820 trading range and quickly recovered above it. If S&P 500 index can hold the 2940 level, we may see the index slowly changing its direction and move upwards.

A trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio this week to change position from medical device sector (IHI) to home construction (ITB) sector which is more favorable in lower interest rate environment.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/4/2019

Stocks plummeted midweek as weakness in manufacturing activities in Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index fueled investor's fear about economy slowdown. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 800 points in two days and reached the low of 26201 mid-day Thrusday. However, hope for interest rate cut from FED's October meeting turned the direction around and stocks recovered from large loss by the end of the week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2952 down 0.33%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.92% while technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.54%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went down for the 3rd week and is clearly in a downward decline. The index fell below the 2940 support and the 28 week moving average (trend line support) intra-week, but closed at 2950 above both support levels. As the momentum indicator of the index is also moving downwards, we expect the index to consolidate around its 28 week moving average for the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/28/2019

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FIUIX

Stocks fell for the second week as congress started the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, and mix signals from US-China trade talk. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2961 down 1.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.19%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After an indecisive week, S&P 500 index closed lower and successfully test the upper resistance of the previous trading channel at 2940. The highs of momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is getting lower and its duration above 80 is getting shorter. It is likely that we will see the index consolidates and test the 2940 level again. Below 2940, there is a trend line support at 2900 and a stronger support at 2800. We will see how the markets play out in the next few weeks.

As both political and economic uncertainty grow, defensive utility sectors outperformed other industrial sectors. A trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio to move its position from growth fund, FDEGX, to utility fund, FIUIX. The model portfolio has held FDEGX less than 3 months with a loss of 1.9%.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/20/2019

An attack on Saudi Arabian oil facility knockout out half of the nation's oil output on September 14. Oil prices spiked up and remain high through out the week. On Wednesday, Fed cut interest rate by 0,25 point as expected. Stocks did not react much to these events and closed the week where it started. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2992 down 0.51%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.05% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decrease 0.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index started the week at 2996, and closed four points below at 2992. It traded between 3021 and 2978 within the trading range of previous week as observed in the weekly chart. It is clear that the index is taking a break to digest its gain after 3 weeks of advancement. The index is still above its 28 week moving average and its momentum is still moving higher. In our opinion, the uptrend is still intact while some minor consolidation may lie ahead.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/13/2019

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBSOX, Buy FSELX
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks moved broadly higher as Trump administration and China officials took steps to de-escalate the trade tension. China revealed a list of US products that will be excluded from the new tariffs and White House quickly responded with delay of the 5% tariff increase on 250 billion Chinese goods for two weeks. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3007 up 0.96%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.57% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.91%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened the week with a cap up at 2988. It quickly pulled back and reached a intra-day low of 2957 on Tuesday testing the 2940-2950 support level. After successfully testing the support, the index marched higher and closed the week at 3007 within 1% of its record high. The momentum indicator of S&P 500 index has move back up above 80 and trending higher. We expect the index will continue it march upward.

Trading signals occur in our SELECT model portfolio as well as in our FEMKX timing system this week. The upward momentum of FBSOX has been slow down in the past few weeks and the model portfolio will replace FBSOX with the current number one rank fund, FSELX, in SELECT ranking table. For FEMKX timing system, the momentum indicator STO[15,1] has quickly rebounded from the low of 25, and a buy signal was issued as STO[15,1] crossed above 50 according to the trading rule.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 9/6/2019

Optimism about US-China Trade talk and monthly long Hon Kong unrest drove the stock market higher. On the economy front, US created 130,000 jobs in August less than the expected 160,000 while US productivity rose more than expected in the second quarter. The mixed reports did little to affect the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2978 up 1.79%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.49% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.76%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After four weeks trading between 2820-2940 range, S&P 500 index finally broke through the trading channel on the top side. The 2940 level has now turned from a resistance to a support. Usually after breaking out from the trading range, the index is expected to come back down to test its support in a short time. If the test fails, the breakout is consider a false breakout and it will be followed by a severe sell-off. If the test is successful, the bull is in control and the index will just keep trending higher. The market sentiment has been more positive than negative lately and the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index has turned back up so it is likely that the back test will be successful. However, no one can predict the future so we will see how the markets play out in the next couple weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/30/2019

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 42634.

Stocks rose sharply in the last week of summer as investors seemed to be more optimistic about US-China trade talk. President Trump made encouraging tweets to boost investor sentiment after his damaging tweet ordering company to seek alternative to China. China's "calm" and non-retaliation attitude also helps to push major indices higher. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2926 up 2.79%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.02% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has traded in the 2940-2820 range for the fourth week. The index has closed at the high end of the range and above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is in the mid-point a bit above 50. As the quiet summer trading season coming to an end and investors coming back at trading floor after the long weekend, we expect the major stock indices will brake out their trading ranges and pick a direction to go in the next couple of weeks.

A trading signal occurs in the RSP model portfolio this week due to high volatility in August. The portfolio has switched to a more defensive position by selling the Contra fund (FCNTX) and buying into Pimco Core Plus Bond fund.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/23/2019

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKAIX, Buy NBRIX.
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAK, Buy IHI.

Stocks rose early in the week encouraged by strong retail sales and dovish Fed policy. However, Major indices experienced sharp sell-off Friday after China announced new tariff on US goods and President Trump "ordered" US companies to immediately seek alternatives to China in his retaliation tweets. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2847 down 1.44%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.99% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.83%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index reached 2939 intra-day Thursday and then experienced impulsive selling afterwards plunging to the low of 2847. In the weekly chart, the index has fallen below its 28 week moving average after 3 weeks of struggle. The momentum indicator is heading downward. We have discussed about the trading range between 2940 and 2820. It is critical to see if S&P 500 index can bounce off from the lower support next week. If the index fails to stay within the trading range, we may see the next wave of selling pushing the index down to 2600 level.

Two weeks ago, our FEMKX timing system gave out a sell signal and market has been down since. This week, we have two more tradings signals occurs in our HSA and sETF model portfolios to move from growth oriented funds to more defensive funds under the current trading environment.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/16/2019

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy IYR.

An inverted yield curve for a short period of time Wednesday stirred up panic about recession and caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than 500 points. However, market recovered a bit by the end of the week with positive July retail sales data from US Commerce Department. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2888 down 1.03%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.53% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.79%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell below its 28 week moving average intra-week, reaching the low near 2820 and closed above its trend line for the second weeks. As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has been trading between 2940 and 2820 for two weeks as we have discussed about the strength of these resistance and support in the blog last week. We think the index will still stay between these two levels for the coming couple of weeks. As long as the index closes above its trend line, the general uptrend is still intact.

After trading signal from FEMKX timing system last week, a trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio to move the position from software sector fund, IGV, to real estate fund, IYR, which has been strong in the past few weeks because of the low interest rate environment. We have held IGV for more than 5 months with a gain of 3.5%.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/9/2019

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks slowed its slide this week as trade friction with China dominated the news. Major indices plunged on Monday as China devalued its currency. Investors were afraid that the trade war may expand to a currency war. Stocks recovered mid-week but fell back on Friday as President Trump told reporter that he is not prepare to make deal with China. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2918 down 0.46%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.75% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.56%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened with a gap down and went down to 2822, less than 1% above the 2800 support level we talked about last week, at the beginning of the week. The index rebounded strongly mid-week but failed to break the resistance at 2940 level and closed the week at 2918, still lower than the close of the previous week. The price action showed the strong support at 2800, the resistance at 2940 and the indecision of the market after sharp sell-off the previous week. Falling below 2800, the index will test the next support at 2600, while breaking above 2940, the index is expect to reach record high. We think the index will trade between 2800 and 2940 next week or two before it chooses a direction to go.

Notice that our FEMKX timing system has turn negative with a sell signal issued this week. With the sell signal from FEMKX, we will use more caution and trade defensively in managing our portfolio.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 8/2/2019

Stocks went sharply lower and recorded the worst weekly loss since the beginning of the year. Investors were spooked mainly by concern about Fed's interest rate policy and US-China trade negotiation. President Trump slapped 10% tariffs on another 300 billion Chinese goods highlighting the tension in US-China trade talk. On Wednesday, Fed lower interest rate by 0.25% as expected but closed the door for further easing for the remainder of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2932 down 3.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.6% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.92%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index plunged lower after Fed's announcement of 0.25% interest rate cut on Wednesday, which validated our earlier view in the blog post on 7/12. As observed in the weekly chart, the index is forming a top and the sizes of the candles have increased in the last 4 weeks signaling higher volatility in the market. The index has fallen below the 2940-2950 support level and we expect to see more downward movement in the coming weeks. The next meaningful support level is around 2800. We will see how the index perform from here on and see if it will get to that level.