Fund Rankings Update, 5/24/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trade war between US and China pushed the market downwards for the second week.  Technology sectors suffered the most as Trump administration blacklisted China telecommunication giant Huawei, which immediately stopped its business relationship with US technology companies.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2826 down 1.17%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.69% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.29% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index successfully tested its 28 week moving average again this past week as observed in the weekly chart. The index opened at 2841, fell down the the weekly low of 2801 and closed the week at 2826,  0.9% above its 28 week exponential moving average. The stochastic momentum indicator STO[15,1] has declined below the over sold threshold of 80 and continued to heading south. As S&P 500 index trying to stay above the trend line, we may see a rebound next week. If it fails to stay above the 28 week EMA, the next supports below 2800 are 2730 and  2650. Looking back to my blog on 4/5, I have expressed my concern about the rate of ascending of the index at that time and have mentioned about "Sell in May and walk away", which turned out to be the case. Market sentiment has been largely affected by geopolitical tensions and tweets lately and less by economic news and company earnings, we will see how they all play out in the next few weeks.  

Fund Rankings Update, 5/17/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy FOCPX
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWH, Buy EWN

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX time model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Concern about trade war between US and China pushed the market downwards.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2859 down 0.76%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.64% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.27% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened the week with a gap down and test the 28 week exponential moving average (EMA) at 2800. By mid-week it has recovered most of the loss before but gave most of them back in Friday afternoon. The index is now 2.1% above its 28 week EMA not as over extended as a couple weeks ago.  As observed in its weekly chart, the index has successfully tested the support level in its first attempt. The momentum indicator, STO [15,1] has declined to 80 and likely will fall out of oversold territory next week. We will see in the next few week if the index will stay above its  28 week EMA. 

The sharp drop in the last two weeks also changed the momentum leadership in our ranking tables. Three trading signals have been issued this week moving holdings in model portfolios to funds that are less affected by tariffs and trade war with China. 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/10/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Rally Friday afternoon saved Wall Street from its worst weekly loss since beginning of the year. President Trump's tweet about hiking tariff on China imports to 25% starting Thursday midnight shocked the investors and initiated the decline of stocks for the week.  Friday afternoon, stocks staged a reversal rally as Treasure Sectary Steven Mnuchin calmed the markets by saying that the US-China trade negotiation were progressing well, and Federal Reserved officials also indicated its willingness to lower interest rate under the circumstance.   For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2881 down 2.18%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.12% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.03% for the week

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index started to move toward its 28 week moving average as we pointed it out 3 weeks ago. With the decline this week the index closed at 2881, about 3% above its 28 week moving average but only 2.5 % from its high of 2954. We think the index is entering a consolidation phase. Looking down, we see the next support level at 2800 and a stronger support at 2600 if it gets there. The best scenario is for the index to move side way with small downward bias to work out its 26% gain since December last year, and wait for the moving average to catch up. It will be interesting to see how the index go from here. 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/3/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42625, Buy FDGRX

Stronger than expected job report Friday pushed stocks higher and erased earlier losses. After policy meeting Wednesday, Fed kept the interest unchanged and dashed investors' hope for a rate cut this year. On the trade front, conflict signals about US-China negotiation confused the Wall street. Some said a deal is imminent and other said the negotiation is at an impasse on enforcement mechanism.    For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2945 up 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.14% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.22% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

On the weekly candle chart, S&P 500 index display an indecision week. The index opened at 2940, reached the low of 2900 on Thursday and close a bit higher at 2945 on Friday. S&P 500 index is 5.6% above its 28 week exponential moving average (EMA) compared to 5.8% last week. As discussed last week, we will closely monitor the deviation of the index from its 28 week EMA, and adjust our view of the market direction accordingly.