YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: September 2019

Fund Rankings Update, 9/28/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FIUIX

Stocks fell for the second week as congress started the impeachment inquiry into President Trump, and mix signals from US-China trade talk. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2961 down 1.01%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.43% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.19%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After an indecisive week, S&P 500 index closed lower and successfully test the upper resistance of the previous trading channel at 2940. The highs of momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is getting lower and its duration above 80 is getting shorter. It is likely that we will see the index consolidates and test the 2940 level again. Below 2940, there is a trend line support at 2900 and a stronger support at 2800. We will see how the markets play out in the next few weeks.

As both political and economic uncertainty grow, defensive utility sectors outperformed other industrial sectors. A trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio to move its position from growth fund, FDEGX, to utility fund, FIUIX. The model portfolio has held FDEGX less than 3 months with a loss of 1.9%.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/20/2019

An attack on Saudi Arabian oil facility knockout out half of the nation's oil output on September 14. Oil prices spiked up and remain high through out the week. On Wednesday, Fed cut interest rate by 0,25 point as expected. Stocks did not react much to these events and closed the week where it started. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2992 down 0.51%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.05% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decrease 0.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index started the week at 2996, and closed four points below at 2992. It traded between 3021 and 2978 within the trading range of previous week as observed in the weekly chart. It is clear that the index is taking a break to digest its gain after 3 weeks of advancement. The index is still above its 28 week moving average and its momentum is still moving higher. In our opinion, the uptrend is still intact while some minor consolidation may lie ahead.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/13/2019

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBSOX, Buy FSELX
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks moved broadly higher as Trump administration and China officials took steps to de-escalate the trade tension. China revealed a list of US products that will be excluded from the new tariffs and White House quickly responded with delay of the 5% tariff increase on 250 billion Chinese goods for two weeks. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3007 up 0.96%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.57% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.91%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened the week with a cap up at 2988. It quickly pulled back and reached a intra-day low of 2957 on Tuesday testing the 2940-2950 support level. After successfully testing the support, the index marched higher and closed the week at 3007 within 1% of its record high. The momentum indicator of S&P 500 index has move back up above 80 and trending higher. We expect the index will continue it march upward.

Trading signals occur in our SELECT model portfolio as well as in our FEMKX timing system this week. The upward momentum of FBSOX has been slow down in the past few weeks and the model portfolio will replace FBSOX with the current number one rank fund, FSELX, in SELECT ranking table. For FEMKX timing system, the momentum indicator STO[15,1] has quickly rebounded from the low of 25, and a buy signal was issued as STO[15,1] crossed above 50 according to the trading rule.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 9/6/2019

Optimism about US-China Trade talk and monthly long Hon Kong unrest drove the stock market higher. On the economy front, US created 130,000 jobs in August less than the expected 160,000 while US productivity rose more than expected in the second quarter. The mixed reports did little to affect the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2978 up 1.79%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.49% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.76%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After four weeks trading between 2820-2940 range, S&P 500 index finally broke through the trading channel on the top side. The 2940 level has now turned from a resistance to a support. Usually after breaking out from the trading range, the index is expected to come back down to test its support in a short time. If the test fails, the breakout is consider a false breakout and it will be followed by a severe sell-off. If the test is successful, the bull is in control and the index will just keep trending higher. The market sentiment has been more positive than negative lately and the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index has turned back up so it is likely that the back test will be successful. However, no one can predict the future so we will see how the markets play out in the next couple weeks.