YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: February 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 2/28/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Investors grew panicking as outbreak of corona virus in China spread globally to South Korea, Iran, Italy and other countries. All major indices plunged to correction territory with continuous selling every day. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 11.49% to 2954, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12.36% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 10.54%.

What goes up must come down. We started to caution readers about market pull-back in December 2019 as S&P 500 index was way too much above its 28 week moving average by historical standard. It was also discussed in the blog that the pull back can be quick and intense. In addition, our FEMKX timing system issued a sell signal to move money into cash position on blog dated January 31, in which it was mentioned that the FEMKX system has been very consistent in telling the market turning points. Investor sentiment tends to over shoot both ways. S&P 500 index is currently 5.8% below its 28 week moving average, and stands at the 2950 support level. We will see if the index can successfully consolidate at this level or wend down further next week.

By design, our momentum ranking systems do not react that fast to a one-week event, and that may be a good thing in this market condition. All our model portfolios stay with the same holdings while waiting for the market development in the next few weeks. Diligently following the trading rule is the best way to navigate out of this severe market uncertainty.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/21/2020

Market was closed on Monday due to President day. Stocks initially went up and reached record high on Wednesday. However, economy impact due to corona virus outbreak weighed in on investors' sentiment and pulled the major indices to the negative territory. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.25% to 3337, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.38% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.59%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/14/2020

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSPTX

Hope for containment coronavirus outbreak and expectation of Fed reducing interest rate push stocks to record high. For the week, S&P 500 index climbed 1.58% to 3380, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.02% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.21%.

S&P 500 index advanced to record high of 3380 and is 7.7% above its 28 week moving average. Even S&P 500 is making new high, we still remain cautious because of its high valuation.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/7/2020

Investors' sentiment was driven by the perception of coronavirus outbreak situation this week. Stocks went up sharply midweek on news that number of reported new coronavirus cases reduced for two consecutive days and good progress on vaccine has been made. However, stocks pulled back Friday as China announced new infection cases and an outbreak in cruise ship anchored in Japan. For the week, S&P 500 index climbed 3.17% to 3327, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.0% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.04%.

S&P 500 index bounced off the lower end of the support level at 3225 and recovered the loss of the last two weeks. The large swing was caused by the virus outbreak and we expect stock markets to remain highly volatile before the spreading of virus is under control .

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/31/2020

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FPBFX, Buy FBGRX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IYW
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy IOO
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FLPSX, Buy FDGRX
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks moved sharply lower amid growing concern about the decline of global travel and economic activities due to the outbreak of coronavirus. Stronger than expected earning reports from Apple, MicroSoft, and Amazon helped to support the technology sectors. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.12% to 3225, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.53% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.76%.

S&P 500 index started the week with a gap down and bounced off 3245 support level. It failed to break the short term resistance level of 3280 in mid-week and closed the week at the lower end of the support level at 3225. We expect the pull-back to continue but not clear on the intensity and duration. Looking down, we have a weak support at 3125 and a stronger support at 3020, which are 3 % and 6.3% respectively from where we stand now.

The pull-back in the last two weeks has so far caused the momentum rankings and position changes in all our ranking tables except SELECT rankings. In addition, FEMKX timing model has signaled a defensive posture to move to side line this week. Long term readers should know that FEMKX timing model has consistently indicated the market turning points in the past.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index