YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: August 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 8/28/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

News about potential vaccines for COVID-19 boost stocks which benefit from reopening of the economy, such as airlines and travel sectors. However, Information technology sectors and large companies still outperformed the general markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.26% to record high of 3508, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.59% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.39%.

S&P 500 index reached all time high after breaking the 3400 resistance and is currently 11.8 % above its 28 week EMA. The index is exhibiting parabolic ascending pattern after the advancement this past week. The high momentum may carry the index higher but caution is warranted as the accompanied risk remain at the alarming level.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/21/2020

Major indices ended mixed this week with communication and technology leading the charge while energy and banking sectors lagging behind. On the economy front, existing home sales and business activities ticked up while weekly unemployment claims went up unexpectedly. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.72% to record high of 3397, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.0% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.65%.

S&P 500 index reached all time high and stayed 9.2% above its 28 week EMA for another week. As the index is trading abnormally high above its trend line, our assessment of high market risk going forward remains.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/14/2020

Major indices eked out another positive week with S&P 500 index moved closer to the 3393 all-time high set in February. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks while utility sectors lagging the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.64% to 3372, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.08%.

S&P 500 index is currently 9.2% above its 28 week exponential moving average far exceeding the 5% - 6% normal trading range. As observed in the weekly chart, the index suffered a severe plunge after breaking this comfort zone last time in February. With the extreme strong momentum, the index may keep continue to move higher but the higher it goes, the harder it will fall. It is prudent to start reducing market exposure at this juncture.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/31/2020

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IGV

Major indices ended the week mixed with tech stocks rebounded strongly from last week due to strong quarterly earnings from Apple, Amazon.com and Facebook. Economic data released at the beginning of the week weighed in on investor sentiment as initial estimate of 2nd quarter GDP showed whopping 33% contraction and a pick-up in weekly jobless claims. Stalling of the new stimulus package at the congress also pushed general stocks down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.73% to 3271, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.69%.

S&P 500 index continued to move side way for another week. The weekly range of the index is the same as last week, and the high of of the week did not break the high of the previous week. S&P 500 index is 7.3% above its 28 week moving average and caution is warranted if the index gets too much ahead of itself.

A trading signals occurs in ETF model portfolio this week as IBB continues to fall in the ETF momentum ranking table. IBB is replaced with Goldman Sachs Software Sector EFT, IGV.