YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: October 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 10/30/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks suffered the worst weekly loss since March as US election is only 4 days away. Resurgent of the corona virus pandemic, uncertainty about the election outcome and the pessimism about the deal for a 3rd stimulus package even after the election. Defensive sectors like utilities held up better in this broad based decline while information technology sectors suffered the most. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.64% to 3269, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.47% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.51%.

S&P 500 index plunged to 3200 and bounced back up above the 28 week exponential moving average at 3253. The 7% deviation of the index above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart last week has been reduced to 0.4% this week. Due the the large sell-off, we may see a small rebound next week. It is critical for the index to stay above the 28 week EMA to keep the uptrend intact. Last week, we mentioned that the best scenario is for the index to move side way and wait for the 28 week EMA to catch up. Instead, we got the worst scenario: The index plunged back to 28 week EMA. In the next few weeks, we would like to see the index consolidate above the 28 week EMA similar to what it did in June-July period before taking off. On the downside, the next support level is 3000, if the current strong 3200 support level can not be successfully tested.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/23/2020

Stocks declined modestly this week largely influenced by the negotiation of the third economic stimulus package. 91 companies reported their quarterly earnings during the week with 84% of the companies reported earning so far have beaten the estimates. Companies, like Netflix, and Intel, with disappointing earnings have seen their stock prices punished by investors. Technology sectors underperform the markets this week while internet stocks outperformed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.53% to 3465, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.95% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.06%.

S&P 500 index consolidated around the phycological resistance of 3500 after the run up from 3200 four weeks ago, and looks to be forming a bull flag patter. As November 3 election is approaching, we don't expect much movement in the price action before the election. The best scenario is for the index to consolidate between 3500 and 3400 for another two or 3 weeks such that the 28 week EMA can catch up.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/16/2020

Stocks eked out small gain after 3 weeks of advancement. Investors' sentiment is still largely driven the the codv-19 vaccine development and the progress of the economic stimulus package. Industrial and utilities sectors outperformed the market while banking sector lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.19% to 3483, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.79%.

S&P 500 index took a breather after 3 weeks of marching higher, and closed a bit below the phycological round number resistance at 3500. Earning season has started this past week and we expect higher volatility in stocks prices in the next couple weeks as investors react to company earning reports. The index is 7% above its 28 week EMA but its momentum indicator, STO, is still climbing higher. After the earning season is over, we expect the index to resume its advancement.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/9/2020

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRPX, Buy FSAVX

Stocks went up the third week with the best weekly gain since July. The advancement was largely driven by the optimism for new round of economic stimulus and the treatment for Codv-19. Small cap, utilities, and energy stocks outperformed the market while communication sectors lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.84% to 3477, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.27% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.56%.

As seen in the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index broke through the 3400 resistance without hesitation this past week. S&P 500 index started this uptrend in mid March recovering from the sharp plunge due to the pandemic. It climbed above the 28 week EMA and May and have since retested the supporting trendline twice, first in June and recently in September. With this strong upward advancement, and the turning of its momentum indicator, STO, we believe the index is heading toward another all time high.

A trading signal has been issued in our SELECT model portfolio to switch holding from retail sector fund, FSRPX, to automotive sector fund FSAVX. As economic recovery enters difference phase in the growth cycle, the automotive and construction sector funds have moved up the ranks in the momentum ranking table in recent months. We have held FSRPX for 109 days with a gain of 19.7% gain.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/2/2020

Stocks went up for the second week with small cap stocks leading the way. Investor sentiment was largely affected by the progress of economic stimulus package negotiation between White House and the congress. On the economy front, US economy only added 661,000 jobs in September below the expectation of 850,000 jobs, indicating the slowdown of the economic recovery. On Friday, news of President Trump's contraction of Codv-19 casted uncertainty on investors mind and caused the pre-market sell-off. Stocks recovered some lost ground and still closed the week positively. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.51% to 3348, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.87% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.48%.

S&P 500 index gapped up, reached the 3400 short term resistance level and retreated back to where it started as seen in the weekly chart below. With the political uncertainty (Trump's hospitalization, and coming presidential election), it is likely that the index may trade within the 3200-3400 range in the coming weeks. In order to keep the up-trend intact, the index has to stay above the 28week EMA during this consolidation. We shall see how this play out.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index