YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: December 2020

Fund Rankings Update, 12/25/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

News about new variant of Codv-19 virus identified in England pushed down investors sentiment while the passage of stimulus bill pulled up the stock markets. Stocks ends up almost flat with big Tech and small cap leading the way in this holiday shorted trading week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.17% to 3703, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.38%.

S&P 500 hovered around 3700 for the fourth week and stays 8.2% above its 28 week EMA. Its momentum indicator is in the extreme overbought region and showing sign of slow down. It is possible that the index will push a bit higher before the correction to the trend line.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2020

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy NSVAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy ILF

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy IEZ

Signs of progress in congress to reach an agreement on stimulus bill and rollout of Codv-19 vaccine pushed the major indices to record high while discouraging economy data in unemployment and retail sales indicated the slow down of economy recovery by the second wave of the pandemic. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.25% to 3709, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.05%.

S&P 500 index finally closed above the psychological barrier of 3700, and stays 9% above its 28 week EMA. Our market outlook stays the same: The index will likely marching higher into early next year due to positive seasonality but caution is warranted as it is too far away from its trendline.

Three trading signals occur in our model portfolios this week due to the recent surge in small cap stocks and energy sectors. So far this year, our SSPP, SELECT, FEMKX, and RSP model portfolios have handily beaten the 14.8% of S&P 500 index. Wish everyone a Happy Holiday and looking forward to another profitable year next year!

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2020

News on imminent vaccine approval from FDA was out-shadowed by the uncertainty of stimulus bill from congress. Weekly jobless claims jumped from 720k to 850k due to the recent wave of infection also weighed in on investor sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.96% to 3663, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.57% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.69%.

S&P 500 index closed below 3700 for the second week and stays 8.3% above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is still heading higher in the overbought region due to positive seasonality effect. Our cautious outlook remains the same as index is marching higher.

Mutual funds and ETF funds started to distribute year-end capital gains and dividends. In some cases, they even split the fund prices to attract more investors. These information are difficult to obtain and process ahead of the time for momentum ranking calculation. Please keep in mind that with these large fund prices adjustments, the rankings in the momentum ranking tables won't be very reliable in December.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/4/2020

Trading signal occurs in iETF, Sell EWD, Buy EWY.

Prospect of new economic stimulus package coupled with positive vaccine news for approval and availability pushed all major indices further into record territories. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.67% to 3699, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.03% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.12%.

S&P 500 index broke above the top of flag formation and closed at 3699, one point below the psychological resistance of 3700. As it broke the bull flag pattern, the index looks to go higher in the next few weeks with positive seasonality. However, it is prudent to start reducing the market exposure as the index is 10.1% above its 28 week EMA. Looking back in August and February, S&P 500 index were 13.6% and 7.6% above its 28 week EMA right before the correction respectively. Remember that the index always come back down to its average after extended run. Investors should prepare for the coming corrections/consolidations when the index is more than 6% above its 28 week moving average.

A trading signal occurs in our iETF model portfolio this week. Momentum ranking of our current holding, EWD has been pushed below the number 7 threshold and warrants a position change. EWD (Sweden index fund) will be replaced with the number one ranked fund, EWY (Korea index fund).

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index