YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: March 2021

Fund Rankings Update, 3/26/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Major indices ended the week mixed with optimism about reopening of the economy outweighing concern about the rising interest rates. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.57% to 3974, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.36%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.58%.

Weekly charts below show that S&P 500 index continued its side way consolidation the past two weeks while the NASDAQ composite index retested its 28 week moving average support. The momentum indicator, STO[15,1], of S&P 500 index has climbed back to overbought position and headed higher, while momentum indicator of NASDAQ composite index has slowed down its downward falling near 50, and appears to turn around if we can get a positive close next week. As we have discussed last week that this consolidation has been concentrated on tech sectors and growth stocks. It is likely that the general market will resume its up trend once the tech sector consolidation is over. We will see how this play out next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of NASDAQ composite index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/19/2021

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EWO

Stocks opened the week strong reaching record high in mid week. However, rising treasury yields and Fed's refusal to lower the capital reserves for the back pushed down the markets. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.77% to 3913, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.46%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.79%.

S&P 500 index failed to break above the resistance at 4000 and fell back down. As we have discussed that this time around the correction is concentrated in tech sectors with general markets in a side way consolidation pattern. A divergent pattern seem to be forming in the weekly chart as well. The index is making double top (if it falls back to 3700) while momentum is a lower high, which does not bode well for the market direction in the next couple of weeks.

Another trading signal was issued in iETF model portfolio this week: Sell EWY, and buy EWO due to momentum ranking changes. We have held FDGRX for 105 days with a gain of 7.1%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/12/2021

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy ARGFX

Stocks advanced broadly higher this week as treasury bond yields retreating and pricing data showing inflation is under control. Investors' sentiment were also boosted by lower than expected weekly jobless claim and the 1.9 Trillion Codv-19 relief package being singed into law by President Biden. On the sector front, consumer discretionary and real estate stocks outperformed the general markets, and small caps extended their leadership over the large caps. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.64% to 3943, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.07%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.09%.

Last week, S&P 500 index closed the week with an indecision candle formation. This week, the index advanced higher closing near the record high of 3950. The behavior of the index next week is very important in determining its intermediate term direction. If the S&P 500 index breaks and closes above the 3950 resistance next week, we will see a push toward 4000 and above. If the index failed to break and close above 3950, we see a bearish double top chart formation and a more severe correction down to 3500 ahead.

After FEMKX timing system issuing a trading signal to move to cash position last week, the RSP model portfolio has signaled a position shift this week: Sell FDGRX, and buy ARGFX due to momentum ranking changes. Small cap stocks have been strong since the beginning of 2021. With the recent correction in tech sectors and growth stocks, the momentum ranking of FDGRX has fallen below the threshold and is replaced with the current number one ranked and small cap oriented fund, ARGFX. We have held FDGRX for 280 days with a gain of 47.6%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/5/2021

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FDVLX

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH

Major indices ended the week mixed with lingering worries from investors about the rising Treasury yields. Value stocks outperformed the growth stocks and energy stocks led the sectors with higher energy prices. Interest rate sensitive tech stocks were were particular weak for a second week. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.81% to 3841, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.82%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.06%.

S&P 500 index closed this week with an indecision Doji candle stick pattern on the weekly chart. The index opened the week strong on Monday, went up above 3900 but sold off soon for the next three days, reached the low of 3723, climbed back above its 50 day moving average and closed the week at about where it began. This correction has hit harder on technology sectors than the general markets. As one can see in the weekly chart of NASDAQ composite index, the $COMPQ has reached its 28 week moving average at 12920 which is 9.1% below its high of 14125, while the S&P 500 index has not reached it 28 week EMA yet, and has only corrected 5.7% at the low of 3723. We are third week into the correction. If the past pattern is of any indication, the end of correction may end in a week or two.

Two trading signals were issued in the model portfolios due the recent market correction. In SSPP model portfolio, the position has been moved from Growth Company fund, FDGRX to a more defensive Valued fund, FDVLX, and the FEMKX timing system has issued a trading signal to move to cash position due to the its trading rule. FEMKX timing system has been a very reliable indicator for the general market direction. The signal has also validated our cautious stance on the market since the end of 2020. Once on the sideline, the next thing is to wait patiently for the the market to consolidate and reenter at the proper time.

Weekly chart of NASDAQ Composite Index

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index