YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: September 2021

Fund Rankings Update, 9/24/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell NBRIX, Buy MLAIX
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWL, Buy EWN

After two consecutive down weeks, stocks recovered a bit with energy stocks outperformed the market. Stocks plunged Monday in fear of the ripple effects to the global banking systems from the possible default of China's second largest real estate developer, Evergrande. Stocks regained most of the loss Wednesday as news about intervention from Chinese government surfaced. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.51% to 4451, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.62%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.02%.

A hammer candle stick pattern was formed this week in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The weekly candle has a short positive body and a long lower wick which almost touches the 28 week moving average. The index closed the week above the short term support of 4400 level that we have talked about in our last blog. As long as the index stays above its 28 week moving average, the up-trend is still intact. We expect to see a couple more weeks of side way consolidation and continuation of the up trend afterwards, if the index can mange to stay above the trend line.

Two trading signals occurs in our model portfolios due to recent sector rotation and momentum ranking changes. The position in the HSA model portfolio is moving from real estate fund, NBRIX, to large cap growth fund, MLAIX after holding for 95 day. In the iETF model portfolio, the holding is changed from EWL to EWN after holding for 32 days. Please see rankings tables and trading logs for more detail.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/17/2021

Stocks ended lower for the second week. Worries about supplier chain challenge and the tightening monetary policy weighed in on investor sentiment. However, economic data on inflation and retail sales released during the week surprised the analysts on the positive side. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.57% to 4432, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.07%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index declined 0.47%.

S&P 500 index declined for the second week but still follows the up trending trajectory since November 2020. 4400 level is a short term support while 4200 level around 28 week EMA and previous resistance is a more meaningful support level. The index is currently 4.3% above its 28 week EMA within our 5-6 % threshold so we do not see a large pulled back on the horizon. Month of September is usually a weak month of the year for stocks according to seasonality. We shall see how the index performs this year in two weeks when the month ends.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/10/2021

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FDEGX

Trading signal occurs FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks ended lower this week as long term interest rate climbing higher. Worries about increasing spread of Delta variant of the coronavirus that hinders the economy recovery and the persistent high inflation rate that would force the Fed to tighten its monetary policy early also weighed in on investor sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.69% to 4458, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.15%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.61%.

S&P 500 index has slowly moved upward following its trajectory since last November as shown in the weekly chart below. The index is still above its 28 week EMA with high momentum. We expect it will continue to march higher with small consolidations along the way.

Two trading signals were issued this week. A buy signal from our FEMKX timing model was issued on this down week. The FEMKX timing model has been consistent in telling the market direction in the past and we shall see how it performs this time. Another trading signal was issued in SSPP model portfolio this week to sell real estate fund, FRESX, and buy the growth related FDEGX fund due to rising longer interest rate. Readers can find the detail trading records in the trading log pages.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/3/2021

Stocks ended mixed this week as August job report showing U.S. only created 235,000 jobs well below the estimation of 750,000 jobs. Within the markets, small real estate sector outperformed while financial sectors lagged. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.58% to 4535, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.55%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index