YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: December 2021

Fund Rankings Update, 12/24/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Major indices rebounded in this holiday shorten week as concern about Covid Omicron variant abated. Positive economic data on durable good order and consumer confidence during the week also helped to push stocks higher. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.28% to 4725, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.65%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.19%.

On the technical front, the S&P 500 index has been in horizontal consolidation since early November. The index has managed to stay about its 28 week EMA and its momentum indicator has climbed back to overbought region and heading higher. Investors usually buy back stocks in January, after year-end tax selling (the so called January effect). We will see how that plays out early next year. In the meantime, our cautiously positive outlook for the next few weeks stay the same.

Weely chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/17/2021

Major indices gave up some of their gains from last week as FED indicated more rate hikes in 2022 and faster tapering of asset buying program. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.94% to 4620, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.58%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.95%.

Weekly chart of &P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/10/2021

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSNGX, Buy FSELX

Major indices rebounded this week to reach closely their record highs as the fear of COVID omicron variant abated and the jobless claims reached the all time low. S&P 500 index went up 3.82% to 4712, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.02%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.61% for the week.

S&P 500 index rebounded from the trendline support to keep the uptrend alive. As the index tries to get back to its upper trading channel with lower momentum, we maintain our positive outlook with caution for the next few weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/03/2021

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWN, Buy IOO

Continued concern about the economic impact from COVID omicron variant and the news that Fed may tighten its money policy sooner because of the persistent inflation pressure pulled stocks down for the second week. S&P 500 index went down 1.22% to 45384, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.91%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.62% for the week.

A cautious trading note was issued at the end of the blog last week as S&P 500 index showed a divergent pattern in its weekly chart, and the FEMKX timing system issued a sell signal. S&P 500 looks to be heading down to test its trend line support at 4400 while there is a stronger support below at 4200. To continue its bull run, the index has to stay above its 28 week EMA trend line. The price action in the next couple of weeks will tell us if this consolidation will turn into a more severe correction.

Again, we have reached the end of year when funds are distributing capital gains which affects the fund prices and momentum rankings. The distribution information are difficult to obtained beforehand, and I can only do my best to keep the data and rankings up-to-date. Similar to the past years, the ranking information will not be as robust in the last few weeks of the year.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index