YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 12/30/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IEV.

Stocks declined modestly again during the light trading week due to the coming New Years day. Economic news were positive as manufacturing activities in mid-Atlantic region turns positive after 8 months while jobless claims rose but in-line with the expectation. However, the positive news pushed the yield of 10-year treasury note higher again and weighed on investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.14% to 3839, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.17%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.3%.

S&P 500 index formed a hammer pattern for the second week indicating a pause in the down trend and an effort to turn around. 2022 turns out to be the worst year for stocks since 2008, the year of great recession, as S&P 500 index lost almost 20%. Without the Santa Claus rally, we are now looking for January effect to to take us out of this drought.

I will be traveling next week and the weekly post will be delayed. As inflation is receding and FED may pause the rate hike in the first half of next year, we are looking forward to the coming of 2023. Happy New Year everyone!

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/23/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEQIX, Buy FIEUX.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy EWI.

Stocks declined modestly for another week even though the major indices closed mixed. Economic news released during the week were positive in general: The commerce department increased its estimate of 3rd quarter GDP from 2.9% to 3.2%, and the personal income rose 0.4% in November. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased 5.5% year over year, the lowest inflation level in the past year. However, these positive economic news also incurred investors' fear for future rate hikes from the FED. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.2% to 3844, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.86%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.94%.

After S&P 500 index failed to hold above its EMA resistance 3 weeks ago, the index has bounced off the 3800 short term support this week as we have discussed in the blog 3 weeks ago. If we the index can successfully bounce off the support (although with declining momentum) in the next few weeks, we may see the trend slowly turning positive. Santa Claus rally started this past Friday and ends on Dec. 30 this year. We will see if Santa brings investors big gift for this difficult year.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/16/2022

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSENX, Buy FSDAX

Stocks declined sharply again as FED increased the interest rate by 0.5% in its policy meeting Wednesday. As FED chair, Jerome Powell expected that the interest rate will be around 5.1% and stay there for some time in 2023, investors feared the increase likelihood of recession. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.08% to 3852, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.66%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/09/2022

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, Buy IEZ

Stocks declined sharply giving back the gains from the past two weeks. The surprising uptick in the ISM's (Institute for Supply Management’s) index to 56.5 dampen investors' hope for FED's ending its interest rate hikes sooner (ISM's index greater that 50 means economy is expanding). For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.37% to 3934, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.77%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.99%.

After staying above its 28 week EMA for three weeks, the S&P 500 index turned back to retest its support as we have discussed in the previous blogs. Unfortunately, the test was not successful, and the index closed below its 28 week EMA support. If the index can not mange to climb above its 28 week EMA (now becomes the resistance) next week, we think that the rally since mid October will be over and we will see the index retreats to 3800 first and then 3500 for the worst scenario.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/2/2022

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell CONINC, Buy 05087

Stocks advanced higher for another week as comment from FED chair Jerome Powell indicated slower pace for interest rate hikes going forward. The positive mood was dampen a bit Friday as November employment data showed US added 260K jobs better than the 200K expected by economists, which complicated the FED's effort to slow down the economy and bring inflation lower. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.13% to 4071, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.09%.

Continuing from last week, S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week EMA with ascending momentum. The 28 week EMA is now acting as a support line instead of resistrance. We think the index will continue heading higher for another few weeks and come back testing the support. A successful retesting will indicate the trend reversal.

Another trading signal was issued this week in RSP model portfolio to move from defensive cash position to LSV large cap value fund. With this trading signal all the model portfolios are out of cash positions.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/25/2022

Happy Thanksgiving! Stocks advanced higher in this holiday shorten week as Fed minutes from November meeting indicating that the FED is willing to slow down the pace of rate hikes. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.53% to 4026, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.78%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.72%.

S&P 500 index broke above the 4000 psychological barrier and closed above its 28 week EMA for the thirdd week. Its momentum indicator is above the mid point and climbing higher. As we have discussed last week, the index has a good chance to continue trending higher if it manages to stay above its 28 week EMA.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/18/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDRXX, Buy FEQIX.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy CSVYX.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EWW.

Stocks declined slightly after strong gains the week before. October core produce price index released on Wednesday provided another evidence that the inflation is slowing down, while the jobless claims for the previous week remained steady in the same range as in September. On the company earning front, Target announced disappointed earning and weak sales outlook causing sharp plunge in its stock price while Walmart, Footlocker reported better-than-expected results and positive forecasts for the upcoming holiday season. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.69% to 3965, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.01%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.57%.

After strong advance the week before, S&P 500 index forms an indecision candle stick pattern with a short body in the middle of the trading range. Even though the index closed the week on the down note, it still manages to closed above its 28 week EMA. The price action of the index in the next couple of weeks will be critical to see if it can hold above its support and continue to march higher.

With strength of the recent rally, three trading signals were issued to move out of their cash positions: SSPP model portfolio to FEQIX, HSA model portfolio to CSVYX, and iETF model portfolio to EWW. After going over the funds in the new HSA line up, I decided to discard the old ranking table and start the HSA rankings from ground up as most of the funds are newly added to the family. Because of the new AMI calculation, the HSA ranking data may take a few weeks to stabilize.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/11/2022

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks advanced strongly this week as the released consumer price index showed signs of receding inflation and rekindled investors' hope for ease of rate hikes from the FED. Growth stocks especially rate sensitive tech stocks outperformed general markets in a big margin. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 5.9% to 3992, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.154%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 8.1%.

With the strong rally, S&P 500 index has completed the first step of the trend reversal by closing above its 28 week EMA and push its momentum indicator, STO[15,1] above the mid-point of 50. We should see the index continue to go up and come back to test its 28 week EMA (now becomes the support) in the next few weeks. A failed test, like the ones in March and mid August, will take the index further down to 3200, while a successful test will signal the beginning of the uptrend just like the one in June 2020.

The fund compositions in HSA ranking family has undergone a drastic change. Five funds have been replaced with new ones and fifteen funds were soft closed which means the current fund owners can still keep the fund but can no longer invest in it further. For example, FKAIX is being replaced with LMOIX, while CLSPX has been soft closed. Owner of the CLSPX can still hold the fund but can not invest it further in the future. I will update the HSA ranking table with the new fund lineup next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/4/2022

Stocks fell this week as FED increased the short term interest by 0.75% as expected. Fed Chair's hawkish stand at the press conference after the meeting weighed on investors sentiment for a pause or slower pace rate hikes. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.35% to 3770, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.65%.

As the bear market continues, the S&P 500 index retreated under the resistance of 28 week EMA as seen in the weekly chart below. The momentum indicator of the index also failed to break the mid-point and heading south. The downtrend is expected to continue for a while with weak momentum and negative sentiment.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/28/2022

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy IYE

Stocks went up sharply for another week with help from positive earning reports from energy and industrial sectors. Investor sentiments were also helped by hope that FED will slow down its pace in hiking interest rates to avoid global economy instability. Tech sector under performed the general market as big tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Facebook announced steep declined in earnings and weaker financial outlooks . For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.95% to 3901, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.72%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.24%.

With the big weekly advance, the S&P 500 index is approaching its 28 week moving average as observed in the weekly chart below. Its momentum indicator also rose sharply to the middle at 49. However, the index is still making lower lows, lower highs pattern. We need to wait for the index to close above its trend line and forming a higher lows, higher highs pattern to confirm the trend reversal.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/21/2022

Trading signal occurs in Select model portfolio: Sell FBIOX, Buy FSENX

Stocks rebounded strongly from its 3600 level with positive third quarter earning reports from major companies. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 4.74% to 3752, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.89%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 5.22%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/14/2022

Stocks were mostly lower as volatility continued with the third quarter earnings report season started and worries from persistent high inflation data released during the week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.55% to 3583, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.11%.

S&P 500 index fell to 3491 Thursday and staged a strong comeback surging 5.5 % to closed the day at 3670. However, with the current weak market sentiment, the index could not hold its gain and closed at 3583 the next day after giving back most of its advance. From the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index is still trying to hold on to its support around 3600, which is a difficult task under such extreme negative sentiment and momentum. For the tide to turn, we need to see the inflation coming down and the Fed slowing down its pace to hike the interest rate.

Weekly chart of S$P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/7/2022

Stocks started the week with a strong 2 day rebound from its 3600 support, but the rally faded after OPEC+ announcing production cut of 2 million barrel oil a day on Wednesday. The announcement coupled with the positive job report on Friday caused the index to give up most of its gain as investors worried that the economy is not slow enough to bring the inflation down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.51% to 3639, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.99%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased only 0.73%.

S&P 500 index rebounded strongly from its 3600 support to the high of 3800 in the first two days of the week, however, the selling pressure and negative sentiment weighed in and the index closed at 3639 only a tad above the support level. The index is well below its 28 week exponential moving average and its momentum indicator is at an extremely oversold level. As discussed previously, the index very likely will fall to 3200 level if it can not hold the 3600 level with such low momentum.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FDRXX.

Stocks declined again for the third week as economic data showing continuous inflationary pressure despite Fed's interest rate hikes. Weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since April while the ccore (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 4.7% well above the expected 4.4%. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.91% to 3585, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.92%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.69%.

S&P 500 index fell below its previous low of 3636 and closed the week below the 3600 support level as we have discussed last week. Looking down, the next support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 3500 which is close to where we are now, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3200. To get a rebound or trend reversal, we need to see inflation receding and Fed slowing the pace of its interest rate hike, which may take a longer time than investors' expectation though.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/23/2022

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy Cash.
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IDU.

Stocks declined sharply again after Federal Reserve raised the interest rate another 0.75% on Wednesday, brining the FED fund rate to 3.0% - 3.25%. This is the third 0.75% rate hike and fear of recession due to FED's hawkish interest rate policy weighed on investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.65% to 3693, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.0%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.07%.

S&P 500 index reached the 3600 supporting level after declining sharply for two weeks. Even though the index still closed above the previous low of 3636, a rebound next week does not look to be likely with its deteriorating momentum. Support on the downside are 3200 and 3000 if the index can not hold the 3600 support. As this bearish trend was induced by interest rate hikes, we expect the reversal will only come when the FED slows the pace of the hikes or reaches its targeted rate range of 4.0% - 4.5%.

With the current extreme bearish sentiment, three trading signals were issued in our model portfolios this week. HSA, FEMKX and ETF model portfolios will sell their current holdings and move either to cash or defensive utility index fund.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/16/2022

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IEO.

Stocks declined sharply after August consumer price index ticked higher with core CPI jumped to 6.3% instead of the expected 6.1%. Investors were spooked by the higher inflation data and feared of the aggressive FED policy that will lead to a global recession. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.77% to 3873, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.13%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.48%.

As observed from weekly chart below, S&P 500 index briefly reached the 28 week EMA and retreated sharply to close below the low of last week with a big red candle. Its momentum indicator also declined sharply from above 50 last week to close the week at 34, well below the mid point. As its momentum is deteriorating, we expect the index to stay below the trendline for another few weeks. On the down side, there is a support at 3600 while on the upside, the trendline resistance at 4100.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/9/2022

Stocks rebounded sharply after three weeks of relentless selling induced by FED chair, Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Holes symposium. Stocks rallied Wednesday as FED's “Beige Book” showing moderation of price increase. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.65% to 4067, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.66%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.14%.

S&P 500 rebounded from its 3900 short term support with its momentum indicator STO [15,1] climbing above 50. For the index to gain back its upward momentum, it has to break the following three resistance levels: The 28 week EMA trend line resistance at 4128, the stronger midterm resistance at 4200 and the resistance from the previous high at 4325. If the index can successfully reach these targets, we will have a highs lows and higher highs pattern to confirm the bullish trend.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/2/2022

Stocks declined sharply for the second week as worries about FED's hawkish monetary policy continues. On the economy front, data showed US added a solid 315,000 jobs in August above the expectation of 300,000. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.29% to 3924, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.99%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.21%.

S&P 500 index went down substantially for the past three weeks as observed by the 3 long read bearish candles in the weekly chart below. Its momentum indicator, once climbed above 80, has retreated quickly and heading below 50. If the index can not hold at the current 3900 support, it will very likely go down to test the previous low of 3600 as we have discussed last week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/26/2022

Stocks plunged on the last trading day of the week after FED chair, Jerome Powell made a hawkish comment about its aggressive interest rate policy to slow down the inflation at Kansas City FED's annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Economy data released last week were mixed with July home sales fell for the sixth month while weekly job less claims continue to decline and the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment went up unexpectedly. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.4% to 4057, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.22%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.44%.

4200 level turned out to be a very strong resistance level. S&P 500 held above 4200 for only one week then experienced a sharp retreat closing below its 28 week EMA for the week. The price action of the index in the next couple weeks are critical in determining the direction of the index. The upward momentum can be sustained if the index can quickly rebound from the sharp decline this week and climb back above it trend line, otherwise, we may see the index fell toward its previous low around 3600.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/19/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDRXX, Buy FIUIX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy CLSPX

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks gave up some of the gains from last week. Economy data showed that industrial production and and retail sales in July were surprisingly strong. Weekly jobless claims also defied the expectation and going lower. While the strong data gave hopes to investors for avoiding recession, it also fueled the fear for FED's continuation of its high rate policy. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.21% to 4228, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.26%.

S&P 500 consolidated this week and is in the process of testing its 4200 and 28 week EMA support levels. As the index remains above its trend line, there is a very good chance for continuation of the up-trend after the consolidation.

Three trading signals were issued this week in SSPP, HSA and FEMKX model portfolios to move out of the cash positions. The FEMKX timing model, as discussed last week, has issued a buy signal with its momentum indicator climbing above the threshold of 50. FEMKX timing model has been a every robust indicator for market direction. It will be interesting to see how it performs this time.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/12/2022

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FDRXX, Buy FBIOX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy IBB

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IHE, Buy IBB

Stocks marched higher as July inflation data came in lower than expected. Headline inflation went up 8.5 % lower than the 8.7% expected, and core inflation rate was flat in July also below estimation. While investors cheered slower inflation, Fed still stressed the need to tame the inflation and keep the rate high. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.26% to 4280, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.92%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.08%.

S&P 500 broke above its 4200 resistance and closed well above its trend line. As discussed in the blog last week, the index may consolidate or retest the trend line support in the next few weeks and continue to advance higher with rising momentum.

With the strong rally in the last few weeks, SELECT, ETF, and sETF model portfolios have issued trading signals this week to move from sideline positions to Bio tech related sector funds. The STO[15,1] momentum indicator of FEMKX is at 49, one short of triggering a buy signal. The FEMKX timing model has been a every robust indicator for market direction. We will see if a buy signal will be issued from FEMKX timing system next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/5/2022

Stocks closed the week mixed as job data showed U.S. created 528K jobs in July more than double the expectation. Investors were relief about the state of economy on one hand but worried about FED's keeping its aggressive stance on interest rate on the other. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.36% to 4145, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.15%.

S&P 500 broke above its 28 week EMA this week after staying below the trend line for more than four months with momentum indicator STO [15,1] above 50 and rising. In the next few weeks, we expect the index to continue marching higher gaining more footing above the trend line and consolidate around 4200 level before another upward push.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/29/2022

Stocks rose substantially higher after FED raised the interest rate 0.75% on Wednesday as expected. Second quarter GDP came in negative 0.9% more than the expected 0.5% contraction as economic slow down took holds. With the contraction in two consecutive quarterly GDPs, investors think that the FED will slow down the pace for rate hikes or stop the rate hikes sooner, which extend the stock rally. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 4.26% to 4130, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.97%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.7%.

As discussed last week, S&P 500 broke above 3900 after the Fed raises the interest rate and closed 10 point below its 28 week EMA. As the momentum indicator keeps rising, the index will most likely break above its trend line in the coming weeks. The best scenario going forward is for the index to retest its trend line support after breaking it and continue to advance higher toward the end of the year.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/22/2022

With commodity prices and oil prices came down substantially in the recent weeks and better than expected second quarter earning reports from some prominent companies, stocks climbed higher for the past week: S&P 500 index went up 2.55% to 3961, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.95%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.33%.

S&P 500 broke the consolidation pattern and closed above the 3900 upper bound formed in the last 5 week. If the index can hold it above 3900 after the Fed raises the interest rate next week in its policy meeting, we will see the index challenging its 28 week EMA resistance. With the rising momentum indicator which has climbed above over-sold region in the last 3 weeks, we may see the index breaking above its trend line the first time after more than 3 months.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/15/2022

Stocks retreated as investors focused on high inflation data with Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 9.1% in June. Wall street now expect the FED will raise interest rate by 75 basis point in their July meeting. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.93% to 3863, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.16%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.57%.

S&P 500 consolidated around 3800-3900 for another week but forming a bullish hammer candle stick pattern with a long wick and a short body. The index went down near 3720 in mid-week, but came back strong to finish the week a bit below where it stated with. The FED's next policy meeting is on July 26 and 27. Wall Street analysts have priced in a 0.75% rate hike from FED at that meeting, and we don't expect much stock movement before the announcement.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/8/2022

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell, FSENX, Buy FDRXX
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell, IYE, Buy FXI
Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell, IEO, Buy IHE

Stocks reversed its downward course on the optimism that the FED will tame the inflation without driving the the economy into recession. On Wednesday, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its estimates of services activity in June showing a continuation of slowdown in economic growth, and on Friday, the Labor Department's payroll data showed US economy added 372K jobs in June better than the expectation of 270K. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.94% to 3899, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.56%.

S&P 500 consolidated around 3800-3900 level this week. The momentum indicator STO has formed a "W" bottom and a bullish divergent pattern: The index is making lower lows in May and June, while the STO is making higher lows. As the index look to be forming a bottom right now, the final confirmation will come when the index breaks above its 28 week EMA.

Three trading signals were issued this week in our model portfolios due to the recent decline in oil prices. However, no leadership sector has emerged, and most of our model portfolios are still in cash positions waiting for the right time to buy.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/1/2022

Stocks gave back portion of its large gain from previous week as investors worried about recession looming on the horizon. Economic data showed consumer purchase fell 0.4% in May and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, if confirmed, indicates that we are already in recession with two consecutive negative quarterly GDP growth. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.21% to 3825, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.28%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.13%.

The silver lining of the decline in S&P 500 index this week is that it still closed above the 3800 resistance. If the index can hold at this level, it may signal the start of bottoming process. Since the index has come down a warping 21% from its high in January 2022, we think a "U" shape or "W" shape bottom is more likely than a "V" bottom formation. A bullish divergence in momentum indicator and a bottoming formation are the signs of reversal we are looking for.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/24/2022

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy VGRDX

Stocks rebounded sharply as economic data showing signs of economy slow down and inflation moderating. Existing home sales fell to the lowest level in May since June 2020, and June manufacturing activities came in well below expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 6.45% to 3911, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 7.49%.

With the strong rebound, S&P 500 filled and downward gap left behind last week and got back abvoe the 3800 support level. The top side strong resistance is at 3800 level which corresponding to the previous high and 28 week moving average. On the downside, there is a weaker support at 3600 from the previous low and a stronger support at 3500. As the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is still very weak in the overbought region, any rebound can only be treated as a counter trend rally. A reversal will not happen before the index breaking above it 28 week EMA resistance.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/17/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FDRXX (Cash)

Stocks experienced the worst weekly loss since March 2020 with FED aggressively raised interest by 0.75 percentage points to counter the high inflation, and investors' fear of recession elevated to the highest state. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.79% to 3674, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.79%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.78%.

S&P 500 started the week with a gap down and closed the week solidly below its previous low of 3810. As discussed in the blog last week, the index looks to go down testing 3500 support level which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. We will continue to monitor the index' price action and momentum change at that level to look for indication of trend reversal inflection point.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/10/2022

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWZ, Buy Cash

Stocks experienced the worst weekly loss since January after release of 8.6 % consumer price index reading for May, which is higher than the 8.2% increase expected. The stubborn high inflation data will likely push Fed to take more aggressive action in hiking interest rate in its policy meeting next week as investors feared. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.05% to 3900, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.58%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.6%.

The extreme trading pessimism can be seen in the weekly chart of S&P 500 through the long red body candle this week. If the index falls further below the previous low of 3810, we will see more downside toward the 3500 level. If the index can hold it at this level, we may see a rebound with a double bottom pattern forming and a positive divergence between momentum indicator STO and its price pattern.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/3/2022

Stocks consolidated with small loss after big gain the previous week. Economic data showed US economy slowed but still in expansion territory. US added 390 K jobs in May more than the expected 320K, and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) service sector activities fell but manufacturing activities accelerated in May. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.2% to 4108, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.94%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.98%.

In the weekly chart, S&P 500 is trying to form a bullish flag pattern after big white candle the previous week. The index is near 4200 resistance and a continuation of the rally due to the pick up of momentum can push the index close to 4300, the 28 W EMA resistance, next week. As discussed in the past blogs, breaking the 4200 and 28W EMA resistance levels are the two critical steps for the index to reverse its downward bearish trend. Hopefully the index can slowly turn the tide and start the reversal in the month of June now that May is behind us.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/27/2022

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42635, Buy CONINC

After seven weeks of relentless selling, stocks finally rebounded strong encouraged by milder inflation data, softening but not recessionary economic news. While lowered outlook from Walmart and Target prompted the sell-off two weeks ago, the upbeat forecast from Macy and Nordstrom this past week more than made up the loss. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 6.58% to 4158, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 6.84%.

S&P 500 rebounded and closed firstly above its high of the past two weeks and secondly above the 4000-4100 level. The strong rebound indicate the selling in the past seven weeks was over done and the index is trying to consolidate at a comfortable price level. From the weekly chart, there are two resistance levels ahead of the index: the 4200 level which used to be a strong support and the 28 week moving average which stood at 4300 currently. Going forward, these two resistance levels may converged into an even stronger resistance. We shall see.

A trading signal occurs this week in RSP model portfolio to sell DIVRSFIED REAL ASSET fund and buy CONSERV INCOME FUND. The strong selling in the last seven weeks prompted the portfolio to move totally to cash position after one month hold in the conservative real estate fund.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/20/2022

Stocks, under relentless selling pressure, declined for the seventh week. Disappointing earnings and revenues from major retailers prompted investors' fear of economic recession as consumer pulling back on their spending. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.05% to 39013, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.9%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.82%.

S&P 500 reached 3800 at its low point this week with momentum indicator stayed in the over-sold region. The index is 19% below its high of 4818, 1% above the official definition of bear market. As the index closed below 4000 support level with weakening momentum, we likely won't see a trend reversal until the index finds a level to consolidate and build a double bottom or triple bottom.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/13/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FICDX, Buy FIUIX

Stocks declined for the sixth week, the longest stretch since 2001. Investors were worried about Fed's accelerating pace of increasing interest rates may cause a recession instead of a soft landing. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.41% to 4023, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.14%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.8%.

S&P 500 index gapped down this week, and at a lowest point on Thursday was nearly 18% below its high of 4818 reached in the beginning of the year. The index managed to climb back Friday, closed above 4000 and formed a hammer candle stick pattern for the week. If the index can consolidate and build a bottom at this level, we may see the beginning of the end. However, under current unfavorable interest rate and high inflation environment, it may take a long time for the index to get back to its upward trajectory.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/6/2022

Stocks declined for the fifth week as Fed raised the interest rate 0.5% on Wednesday to fight the heighten inflation. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.21% to 4123, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.54%.

As S&P 500 index could not hold the 4200 support, the index looks to continue heading downward to the next support level at 4000. We are entering the month of May which is a seasonally weak month of the year with the adage: "Sell in May and go away." With the current market condition, it may be more true this year than the last.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/29/2022

Stocks declined for the fourth week with Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points again on Friday as Amazon.com's disappointing quarterly earning spooked investors. Major indices are squarely in the correction territory: S&P 500 index is sitting at 14% below its high and NASDAQ composite has fallen 24% from its high in November 2021. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.27% to 4131, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.47%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.93%.

After failing to closed above its trend line last week, S&P 500 index declined further and closed below its 4200 support this week. As discussed in the blog last week, the index is likely to decline further even to 3600, if it can not find a footing to get back above 4200 next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Ranakings Update, 4/22/2022

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 05087, Buy 42635

Stocks closed lower for the third week as Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points on Friday. Elevated inflation and increasing likelihood that the Fed will hike interest rate half point in its May policy meeting dominated investors sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.75% to 4271, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.86%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.83%.

S&P 500 index made an attempt to get back above its 28 week EMA during the week but ended up closing below the trend line. Its weekly momentum indicator fell below 50 this week and heading downward. The index looks to be moving down to test the 4200 support level again. If the index can not hold its 4200 support, the next meaningful support levels are 4000 and 3600. We will see how it plays out next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/15/2022

Stocks closed lower over the holiday-shorten week as corporates started reporting their first quarterly earnings. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.13% to 4392, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.78%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.63%.

S&P 500 index fell below its 28 week EMA and its momentum indicator declined from its last week high but still closed above 50. Trading volumes were below average through out the week. We will see if the index can get back above it trend line next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/8/2022

Stocks closed lower with Ukraine war and rate hikes largely weighed on investor sentiment. Consumer stable and healthcare recorded solid gain while technology suffered the most. US Economy seems to hold up well under the current high inflation environment as the weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest since 1968 and the ISM service index, released last week, still indicated robust economy expansion. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.27% to 4488, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.28%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.86%.

S&P 500 index still struggled to break the 4600 level resistance but closed the week above its 28 week moving average. It is a good sign that the index stays and consolidates above its trendline, and hopefully we will see it breaks the 4600 level soon in the coming weeks. Our cautiously positive outlook for the index to resume its uptrend remains the same as the index picks up its momentum and stays above its trendline.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/1/2022

Stocks were flat after 2 weeks of rebound with major indices ended the week mixed. Investor sentiment was largely affected by the evolving situation in the Russian-Ukraine war. On the economic front, the March nonfarm payroll report showed that US created 431K jobs below the expectation of 490K but the jobless rate fell a bit more than expected to 3.6%. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.06% to 4545, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.12%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.65%.

S&P 500 index broke the 4600 level intra week but closed below this second step resistance to resume its up-trend. As the momentum indicator STO[15,1] is trending upward and the index is above its 28 week EMA, there is a high likelihood that the index will continue to march upward to break its record high.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/25/2022

Stocks continued its rebound as investors digesting the progress or war situation in Ukraine. Information technology, material and energy sectors outperformed the market while healthcare lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.79% to 4543, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.31%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.98%.

S&P 500 index closed the weekly solidly above its 28 week EMA overcoming the first hurdle to resume its up trend. As discussed in the blog last week, the next step is for the index to break above the 4600 resistance and the 4800 all time high psychology barrier afterwards. With the pickup in the momentum indicator STO[15,1], the scenario may well plays out in the next few weeks.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/18/2022

Stocks closed sharply higher with falling oil prices and outcome from FED to hike interest rate by a quarter percentage point. Continued negotiation between Russia and Ukraine to end the war also boosted investor confidence. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 6.16% to 4423, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.5%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 8.18%.

S&P 500 index rebounded once more from its 4200 support level and closed the week right above its 28 week EMA of 4452. We have discussed this scenario in the blogs two or three weeks ago. In order for the index to resume its uptrend, it has to first climb above the trend line (28 week EMA) resistance and secondly break above the 4600 resistance. Now that the first step has been completed and with the uncertainty from Fed's first interest rate hike behind us, we could see the index consolidating a couple weeks around the 28 week EMA after the sharp move and then challenge the 4600 resistance or even the 4800 all time high.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index