YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: February 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 2/25/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks experienced high volatility this past week as Russia launched broad-scaled invasion into Ukraine. Dow Jones Industrial Average went down more than 800 points Thursday morning, but closed the day in the positive territory and continued its rebound Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.82% to 4384, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.06%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.08%.

S&P 500 index formed a hammer candle stick pattern this past week with short body and long wick as shown in the weekly chart below. It appears that the index has successfully tested the 4200 support level and is trying to form a "W" shape double bottom in the weekly chart. In order to complete the formation, the index needs to continue rebounding higher, breaking its 28 week EMA first and then the 4600 short term resistance level in the next few weeks. We will continue to monitor the development and adjust the portfolio positions accordingly.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/18/2022

Stocks closed lower for the second consecutive week as worries of Russian's imminent invasion to Ukraine and the coming rate hikes due to high inflation prevailed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.58% to 4348, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.90%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.76%.

S&P 500 index has closed below its 28 week EMA for the fifth week. Its momentum indicator STO[15,1] is still above the over sold region but heading downward. It is likely that the index will retest its 4200 support level around mid-March when the first rate hike occurs. At that time, the best scenario is for the index to successfully test the support, form a double bottoms and climb above the 28 week EMA to resume its uptrend. However, if the index fails to hold or rebound from the support, we will see it plunging lower and will have a pro-long market down turn.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/11/2022

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VFIAX, Buy PCRIX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGN, Buy IYE

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy EZA

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy 05087

Stocks headed lower as higher than expected annual inflation of 7.5% triggered the fear of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the FED, and plunged the stocks lower at the end of the week. Imminent treat of Russian invasion to Ukraine also contributed to the sell-off on Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.82% to 4418, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.18%.

S&P 500 index struggled to break above its 28 week EMA midweek and closed below its trend line for the fourth week. As shown in the weekly chart below, the index has reached the high of 4600 in the last two weeks but ended up below the EMA each time. With the declining momentum, we expect the index to continue staying below its trend line and likely to retest its recent low of 4200. Our market outlook remains the same as last week that this pullback likely will last a few more weeks into March.

Four trading signals were issued this week due to heavy sector rotation. All of our model portfolio holdings have now been moved to either defensive or anti-inflation type of funds. Looking back at the trading logs, the first bearish signal for this market pullback was issued in FEMKX timing system on 11/29 last year. At that time, the S&P 500 index is still above its 28 week EMA, but the FEMKX, which tracks the small cap index closely, has turned bearish and gave an early signal to take up defensive position. The 21 month long bull run (April, 2020 - Jan, 2022) has come to an end and it remains to be seen if this pullback will turn into a prolong bearish decline.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/4/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FGRIX

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IEO

All major indices continued their rebound for the second week under heighten volatility as more than 100 companies reported their 4th quarter earnings over the week. Facebook (Meta) saw its stock price falling more than 20% Thursday after disappointing earning report, while Amazon stock rose 13.5% rewarded by its better than expected quarterly earnings Friday. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.55% to 4500, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.05%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.38%.

In the weekly chart below, S&P 500 rebounded and climbed above its 28 week EMA in midweek but still closed the week a few points below the EMA. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of the index is still declining and heading toward the over sold region. If the index can not break the 28 week EMA next week, we will see it retesting the 4200 support. Our market outlook remains the same that this pull back likely will last a few more weeks into March.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index