YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: June 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 6/24/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy VGRDX

Stocks rebounded sharply as economic data showing signs of economy slow down and inflation moderating. Existing home sales fell to the lowest level in May since June 2020, and June manufacturing activities came in well below expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 6.45% to 3911, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.39%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 7.49%.

With the strong rebound, S&P 500 filled and downward gap left behind last week and got back abvoe the 3800 support level. The top side strong resistance is at 3800 level which corresponding to the previous high and 28 week moving average. On the downside, there is a weaker support at 3600 from the previous low and a stronger support at 3500. As the momentum indicator of S&P 500 index is still very weak in the overbought region, any rebound can only be treated as a counter trend rally. A reversal will not happen before the index breaking above it 28 week EMA resistance.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/17/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FDRXX (Cash)

Stocks experienced the worst weekly loss since March 2020 with FED aggressively raised interest by 0.75 percentage points to counter the high inflation, and investors' fear of recession elevated to the highest state. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.79% to 3674, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.79%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.78%.

S&P 500 started the week with a gap down and closed the week solidly below its previous low of 3810. As discussed in the blog last week, the index looks to go down testing 3500 support level which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. We will continue to monitor the index' price action and momentum change at that level to look for indication of trend reversal inflection point.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/10/2022

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWZ, Buy Cash

Stocks experienced the worst weekly loss since January after release of 8.6 % consumer price index reading for May, which is higher than the 8.2% increase expected. The stubborn high inflation data will likely push Fed to take more aggressive action in hiking interest rate in its policy meeting next week as investors feared. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.05% to 3900, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.58%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.6%.

The extreme trading pessimism can be seen in the weekly chart of S&P 500 through the long red body candle this week. If the index falls further below the previous low of 3810, we will see more downside toward the 3500 level. If the index can hold it at this level, we may see a rebound with a double bottom pattern forming and a positive divergence between momentum indicator STO and its price pattern.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/3/2022

Stocks consolidated with small loss after big gain the previous week. Economic data showed US economy slowed but still in expansion territory. US added 390 K jobs in May more than the expected 320K, and the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) service sector activities fell but manufacturing activities accelerated in May. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.2% to 4108, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.94%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.98%.

In the weekly chart, S&P 500 is trying to form a bullish flag pattern after big white candle the previous week. The index is near 4200 resistance and a continuation of the rally due to the pick up of momentum can push the index close to 4300, the 28 W EMA resistance, next week. As discussed in the past blogs, breaking the 4200 and 28W EMA resistance levels are the two critical steps for the index to reverse its downward bearish trend. Hopefully the index can slowly turn the tide and start the reversal in the month of June now that May is behind us.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index