YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: November 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 11/25/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Happy Thanksgiving! Stocks advanced higher in this holiday shorten week as Fed minutes from November meeting indicating that the FED is willing to slow down the pace of rate hikes. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.53% to 4026, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.78%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.72%.

S&P 500 index broke above the 4000 psychological barrier and closed above its 28 week EMA for the thirdd week. Its momentum indicator is above the mid point and climbing higher. As we have discussed last week, the index has a good chance to continue trending higher if it manages to stay above its 28 week EMA.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/18/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDRXX, Buy FEQIX.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy CSVYX.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EWW.

Stocks declined slightly after strong gains the week before. October core produce price index released on Wednesday provided another evidence that the inflation is slowing down, while the jobless claims for the previous week remained steady in the same range as in September. On the company earning front, Target announced disappointed earning and weak sales outlook causing sharp plunge in its stock price while Walmart, Footlocker reported better-than-expected results and positive forecasts for the upcoming holiday season. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.69% to 3965, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.01%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.57%.

After strong advance the week before, S&P 500 index forms an indecision candle stick pattern with a short body in the middle of the trading range. Even though the index closed the week on the down note, it still manages to closed above its 28 week EMA. The price action of the index in the next couple of weeks will be critical to see if it can hold above its support and continue to march higher.

With strength of the recent rally, three trading signals were issued to move out of their cash positions: SSPP model portfolio to FEQIX, HSA model portfolio to CSVYX, and iETF model portfolio to EWW. After going over the funds in the new HSA line up, I decided to discard the old ranking table and start the HSA rankings from ground up as most of the funds are newly added to the family. Because of the new AMI calculation, the HSA ranking data may take a few weeks to stabilize.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/11/2022

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks advanced strongly this week as the released consumer price index showed signs of receding inflation and rekindled investors' hope for ease of rate hikes from the FED. Growth stocks especially rate sensitive tech stocks outperformed general markets in a big margin. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 5.9% to 3992, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.154%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 8.1%.

With the strong rally, S&P 500 index has completed the first step of the trend reversal by closing above its 28 week EMA and push its momentum indicator, STO[15,1] above the mid-point of 50. We should see the index continue to go up and come back to test its 28 week EMA (now becomes the support) in the next few weeks. A failed test, like the ones in March and mid August, will take the index further down to 3200, while a successful test will signal the beginning of the uptrend just like the one in June 2020.

The fund compositions in HSA ranking family has undergone a drastic change. Five funds have been replaced with new ones and fifteen funds were soft closed which means the current fund owners can still keep the fund but can no longer invest in it further. For example, FKAIX is being replaced with LMOIX, while CLSPX has been soft closed. Owner of the CLSPX can still hold the fund but can not invest it further in the future. I will update the HSA ranking table with the new fund lineup next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/4/2022

Stocks fell this week as FED increased the short term interest by 0.75% as expected. Fed Chair's hawkish stand at the press conference after the meeting weighed on investors sentiment for a pause or slower pace rate hikes. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.35% to 3770, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.4%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.65%.

As the bear market continues, the S&P 500 index retreated under the resistance of 28 week EMA as seen in the weekly chart below. The momentum indicator of the index also failed to break the mid-point and heading south. The downtrend is expected to continue for a while with weak momentum and negative sentiment.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index