YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: December 2022

Fund Rankings Update, 12/30/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IEV.

Stocks declined modestly again during the light trading week due to the coming New Years day. Economic news were positive as manufacturing activities in mid-Atlantic region turns positive after 8 months while jobless claims rose but in-line with the expectation. However, the positive news pushed the yield of 10-year treasury note higher again and weighed on investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.14% to 3839, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.17%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.3%.

S&P 500 index formed a hammer pattern for the second week indicating a pause in the down trend and an effort to turn around. 2022 turns out to be the worst year for stocks since 2008, the year of great recession, as S&P 500 index lost almost 20%. Without the Santa Claus rally, we are now looking for January effect to to take us out of this drought.

I will be traveling next week and the weekly post will be delayed. As inflation is receding and FED may pause the rate hike in the first half of next year, we are looking forward to the coming of 2023. Happy New Year everyone!

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/23/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FEQIX, Buy FIEUX.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy EWI.

Stocks declined modestly for another week even though the major indices closed mixed. Economic news released during the week were positive in general: The commerce department increased its estimate of 3rd quarter GDP from 2.9% to 3.2%, and the personal income rose 0.4% in November. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased 5.5% year over year, the lowest inflation level in the past year. However, these positive economic news also incurred investors' fear for future rate hikes from the FED. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.2% to 3844, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.86%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.94%.

After S&P 500 index failed to hold above its EMA resistance 3 weeks ago, the index has bounced off the 3800 short term support this week as we have discussed in the blog 3 weeks ago. If we the index can successfully bounce off the support (although with declining momentum) in the next few weeks, we may see the trend slowly turning positive. Santa Claus rally started this past Friday and ends on Dec. 30 this year. We will see if Santa brings investors big gift for this difficult year.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/16/2022

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSENX, Buy FSDAX

Stocks declined sharply again as FED increased the interest rate by 0.5% in its policy meeting Wednesday. As FED chair, Jerome Powell expected that the interest rate will be around 5.1% and stay there for some time in 2023, investors feared the increase likelihood of recession. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.08% to 3852, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.66%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.72%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/09/2022

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, Buy IEZ

Stocks declined sharply giving back the gains from the past two weeks. The surprising uptick in the ISM's (Institute for Supply Management’s) index to 56.5 dampen investors' hope for FED's ending its interest rate hikes sooner (ISM's index greater that 50 means economy is expanding). For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.37% to 3934, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.77%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.99%.

After staying above its 28 week EMA for three weeks, the S&P 500 index turned back to retest its support as we have discussed in the previous blogs. Unfortunately, the test was not successful, and the index closed below its 28 week EMA support. If the index can not mange to climb above its 28 week EMA (now becomes the resistance) next week, we think that the rally since mid October will be over and we will see the index retreats to 3800 first and then 3500 for the worst scenario.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/2/2022

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell CONINC, Buy 05087

Stocks advanced higher for another week as comment from FED chair Jerome Powell indicated slower pace for interest rate hikes going forward. The positive mood was dampen a bit Friday as November employment data showed US added 260K jobs better than the 200K expected by economists, which complicated the FED's effort to slow down the economy and bring inflation lower. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.13% to 4071, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.24%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.09%.

Continuing from last week, S&P 500 index closed above its 28 week EMA with ascending momentum. The 28 week EMA is now acting as a support line instead of resistrance. We think the index will continue heading higher for another few weeks and come back testing the support. A successful retesting will indicate the trend reversal.

Another trading signal was issued this week in RSP model portfolio to move from defensive cash position to LSV large cap value fund. With this trading signal all the model portfolios are out of cash positions.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index