YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: 2023

Fund Rankings Update, 12/29/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed the final trading week of the year with a modest gain despite muted economic data. A sharp decline in the index of Mid-Atlantic manufacturing activity on Wednesday indicated the fastest pace of contraction since February, while an unexpected rise in the weekly jobless claims on Friday added a note of caution. Nevertheless, the major indices finished mostly positive: the S&P 500 edged up 0.32% to 4769, the Dow Jones rose 0.81%, and the Nasdaq inched 0.12% higher.

The S&P 500 capped the week with another round of sideways trading, lingering near its all-time high for the second consecutive week. Notably, the index remains elevated, sitting 7.2% above its 28-week moving average, which typically fluctuates within a 5-6% range. This deviation suggests underlying strength, but we anticipate a potential pullback before the index makes another attempt at challenging its record peak in early 2024.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/22/2023

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FBGRX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy VFTAX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSPCX, Buy FSRBX

Stocks continued to advance higher with Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 index making record highs. Inflation data released on Friday also bolstered the investors' optimism about rate cuts next year: the Commerce Department reported that the core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, rose only 0.1% in November, and the headline PCE index (with food and energy) fell 0.1% in November, marking its first decline in 21 months. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.75% to 4754, Dow Jones climbed 0.22% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.21%.

The S&P 500 took a breather and consolidated sideways this week after a strong advancement the week before. The index is 64 points (1.34%) shy of its record high of 4818. It will be interesting to see if the index can reach an all-time high with 4 trading days left for the year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/15/2023

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAK, Buy ITB

Bullish sentiment propelled stocks higher this week, fueled by anticipation of rate cuts next year. The Fed's hint at three rate cuts in 2024, coupled with unexpectedly strong November retail data, painted a picture of a resilient economy and a potential soft landing. The S&P 500 soared 2.49%, Dow Jones climbed 2.92% and Nasdaq advanced 2.89%.

After three weeks of hovering near 4600, the S&P 500 finally punched through, closing above 4700 on a surge of momentum. This strong run has fueled speculation that the all-time high of 4818 might be within grasp by year-end. However, a word of caution: at 7.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average, the index is stretching beyond its typical 5-6% range. While further gains are possible, this parabolic move suggests proceeding with prudence.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/8/2023

Stocks closed flat to mildly higher this week, buoyed by unexpectedly positive economic data. Friday's jobs report revealed the US added 199,000 jobs in November, significantly exceeding expectations of 180,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7% from 3.9% in October, further highlighting the economy's strength. Consumer sentiment also surged, with the University of Michigan's preliminary December gauge jumping to 69.4, exceeding expectations of 62.4, likely fueled by easing inflation concerns. These positive developments contributed to modest weekly gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.21% to 4604, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.01%, and the Nasdaq composite advancing 0.69%.

The S&P 500 index moved sideways to let its 28-week exponential moving average catch us as shown in the weekly chart below. It has reached and closed above the 4600 resistance level with strong momentum. As discussed in the previous blog, we expect the index to resume its upward trajectory after this short-term consolidation.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/1/2023

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IGV.

Stocks moved higher this week as falling treasury yields boosted investor sentiments. Economy data showed the inflation is subsiding and the economy is slowing down. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.2% in October, a slowdown from September. Weekly jobless claims ticked down, but continuing claims jumped much more than expected to 1.93 million, their highest level since November 2021. For the week, the S&P 500 index climbed 0.77% to 4594, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.42%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 0.38%.

The S&P 500 index maintained its upward momentum, inching closer to the 4600 resistance level, which is currently just six points away. Over the next few weeks, we anticipate a period of sideways consolidation, with a positive bias.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/24/2023

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy MLAIX.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EWZ.

Stocks rose in this holiday-shorten week with growth stocks leading the way. Economic data pointed to a slowing economy. Durable goods orders dropped 5.4% in October and companies shed jobs for the first time since 2020 according to an S&P Global survey. As signs of slowing economic growth appear and inflation fear subsides, treasury bond yields have retreated from their highs, boosting stock prices. For the week, the S&P 500 index climbed 1.0% to 4559, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.27%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 0.89%.

The S&P 500 index maintains its upward trajectory, aiming to break through the 4600 resistance level next week. Historical trends suggest that the index could experience a sideways consolidation period for the next two weeks before resuming its ascent toward all-time highs.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/17/2023

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSENX, Buy FSPCX.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks closed broadly higher as the October consumer price index released Tuesday came in lower than expected. Economic data not only showed the moderation of inflation but also the resilience of the economy. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales in October fell 0.1%, better than expected. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 2.24% to 4514, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.94%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 2.37%.

The S&P 500 index continued to march higher surpassing its first resistance at 4500 as we mentioned in the previous blog. The index's momentum indicator has also soared above the overbought threshold of 80. Given the strong momentum, we anticipate that the index will soon surpass its previous swing high and regain its record high of 4800.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/10/2023

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy IAK.

Stocks continued their upward trajectory last week as some tech companies provided positive earnings surprises in the final week of the third quarter earning report season. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 1.31% to 4415, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 2.37%.

The S&P 500 index continued to ascend last week, successfully completing the two steps necessary to confirm the resumption of the up-trend as discussed in our previous blog post. Firstly, it surpassed its 28-week exponential moving average, and secondly, it closed above the previous swing high of 4,394 to break the downward market structure. Overall, the S&P 500 index maintains a positive outlook. As illustrated in the weekly chart below, the next resistance stands at 4500. If it can decisively break above this level, it could potentially reach its all-time high of 4,600 level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/3/2023

Stock markets surged broadly this week after the Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday and Treasury yields fell from 5% to 4.48%. The US economy added 150,000 jobs in October, below expectations, and the August and September data were revised down, indicating a cooling labor market. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 5.85% to 4358, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.07%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 6.61%.

The S&P 500 index rallied for five consecutive days to start November strong, closing 1.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The momentum indicator, STO[15,1], rebounded sharply and crossed back above the 50 midpoint. To confirm the resumption of the uptrend, the index needs to complete two steps: first, close above the 28-week EMA trend line (which it has already done), and second, break the downward lower-highs, lower-lows market structure by closing above the 4394 level (the last swing high) to make a higher-high. It will be interesting to see if the index can accomplish the second step next week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/27/2023

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IYE

Stocks closed sharply lower for the second week as worries about the higher interest rate prevailed. Quarterly corporate earning reports from high-tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, showed decent results meeting most of Wall Street's metrics. However, sentiments were so pessimistic that investors were only focused on the negatives in their reports. On the economic data front, US third quarter GDP went up more than expected at an annual rate of 4.9% due to strong consumer spending. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy costs increased to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in August, and the year-over-year measure ticked down to 3.7% in September from 3.8% in August. It is widely expected that the FED will halt the rate increase in their policy meeting next Wednesday. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 2.53% to 4117, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.14%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 2.62%.

The S&P 500 index went down sharply below its 28-week exponential moving average after failing to hold above the trend line last week. The index is 10.6% below its July high of 4607 and is currently 4.2% below its 28-week EMA. Its momentum indicator STO [15,1] has fallen deeply in the over-sold zone. We may see a minor rebound next week but the widespread negative investor sentiment will keep it under the trendline.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/20/2023

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed the week sharply lower as worries about geopolitical tension, less dovish comments from the FED chairman, and higher long-term treasuries weighed on investor sentiments. Positive economic data such as better-than-expected October retail sales and a lower weekly jobless rate also support keeping the rate “higher for longer” scenario. On Friday, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds reached 5% in intraday trading, the highest level in sixteen years. Higher bond yield pulls away investments for stocks and causes stock price volatility. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 2.39% to 4224, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.61%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 3.16%.

The S&P 500 index went up at the beginning of the week trying to stay above its 28-week exponential moving average. However, it failed to hold up and plunged below the trendline as the week progressed. In addition, the index has experienced two big rejections at the 4400 level in the last two weeks. The index's momentum indicator STO [15,1] has turned south and fallen back below the over-sold threshold of 20. With this new data point, we think the index will stay below the trend line for a few more weeks before it turns around.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/13/2023

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy Cash

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed the week mixed again as investors weighed on higher-than-expected PPI (producer price index and CPI (consumer price index) released during the week. However, dovish statements from FED officials and decreasing treasury yields due to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. For the week, the S&P 500 index went up 0.45% to 4327, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.79%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 0.18%.

Even with the pullback due to the higher-than-expected inflation data on Thursday and Friday, The S&P 500 index still closed the week above its 28-week exponential moving average. The momentum indicator STO [15,1] of the index is above the oversold threshold of 20 and heading higher. We would like to see the index climb above the 28-week EMA more to provide us more confidence in the uptrend resumption.

The Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/06/2023

Stocks started the October with mixed results with large-cap and technology stocks outperforming the general markets. This week was heavy on job-related economic data release. On Tuesday, data showed the US opened 9.6 million jobs in August more than the forecasted 8.8 million, while ADP employment data released on Wednesday showed 89000 jobs were created in September, lower than expected. The heavily focused US employment data released Friday showed that the US economy added 336000 jobs in September a lot higher than the 170000 expected by the consensus. The strong job data triggered the investors' fear of another rate hike from the FED and plunged the stocks before the market opened on Friday. However, stocks recovered and climbed higher after opening as investors digested the details of the job reports, and found that the small increase in average hourly earnings and high labor participation rate indicated that supply rather than demand is driving the labor market which is favorable for a low inflation environment. For the week, the S&P 500 index went up 0.48% to 4308, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased by 1.6%.

The S&P 500 index formed a bullish hammer pattern this week and closed only 10 points below its 28-week exponential average (EMA). Notably the index has turned positive after 4 weeks of slide and its momentum indicator STO [15,1] has climbed above the over-sold threshold of 20. The index may go back to its upward path if it can close above the trend line next week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2023

Stocks closed the week mostly lower as concern about the effect of high-interest rates, high oil prices, and the potential government weighed on investor sentiment. However, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index which was released Friday showed an increase of 0.1% in August over July, lower than the 0.2% expected. Year over year, PCE increased 3.9%, the first time in more than 2 years that it dropped below 4%. The reading indicated the moderation of inflation and the effectiveness of FED's high-interest policy. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 0.74% to 4288, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.34%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased by 0.06%.

The S&P 500 index continued to fall and closed below its 28-week exponential moving average as we discussed in the blog last week. The index has fallen continuously for 4 weeks losing 5.2% and making September its worst month of the year so far. September has been a weak month from a seasonality point of view: 7 out of the last 10 years stock performance has been negative for September. We are looking forward to a better performance in October as the momentum indicator of the index has rebounded a bit and trying to climb out of the oversold region. Hopefully, the rebound can continue and the index can soon break above its 28-week EMA which has turned into a resistance now.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/22/2023

Stocks closed sharply lower as the FED announced to keep the interest rate higher and longer. All eyes were on the FED's interest rate decision in its policy meeting Wednesday. The FED did not raise the interest rate but forecasted a higher-than-expected rate estimate for 2024 and 2025. Worries about the impact of UAW strikes and a potential government shutdown if Congress can not pass the funding bills before the deadline also dampen investor sentiment. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 2.93% to 4320, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.89%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 3.62%.

Two weeks ago, we discussed about the similarity of the S&P 500 index's price action in the past few weeks and the correction in February and March. This week, the index gets a sharp drop, a week later than in the Feb-March correction, and closed 2 points below its 28-week EMA. In the last correction, the index went below the 28-week EMA and came right back to resume the up-trend. As the momentum indicator of the index has fallen into the oversold region, we expect the index will fall below the trend line for a couple of weeks before it bounces back.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/15/2023

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSENX.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IEZ.

Stocks closed mixed this week as oil prices rose to $90 a barrel for the first time in 10 months. The slight pickup in CPI data released Wednesday and PPI data released Thursday showed that the road to the Fed's target of 2% inflation is still bumpy ahead. After the CPI and PPI data releases, all focuses are now turned to the Fed's decision to hike or steady the interest rate in the policy meeting next Wednesday, 9/20. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 0.16% to 4450, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.12%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 0.39%.

The S&P 500 index continued to go sideway and closed a bit lower this week within the range between 4607 and 4335. The index still stays above its 28-week exponential moving average with the momentum indicator at around the midpoint. The market is waiting for FED's interest rate decision next Wednesday. The index's reaction after the decision will give us a clue about the market direction for the rest of the year.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/8/2023

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy IOO.

Stocks closed lower for the holiday-shortened week. Positive economic news in lower weekly jobless claims and unexpectedly higher service sector activity caused concern about FED's hiking interest in their next policy meeting. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 1.29% to 4457, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.75%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 1.93%.

The S&P 500 index closed lower this week after the large advance last week. The index is still hovering above its 28-week exponential moving average while the momentum indicator came back down in the no man's land. As the index goes sideway, we will need it to either close higher than 4607 for confirmation of an up trend or close lower than 4335 for a downtrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/1/2023

Stocks advanced higher to start September and close the losing August. The labor market shows signs of cooling as the unemployment rate climbed from 3.5% to 3.8% in August and new job openings fell by 338,000 in July unexpectedly. In light of these economic data, the expectation that the FED will forgo the interest rate hike for the rest of the year increases giving sentiment a boost. For the week, the S&P 500 index went up 2.50% to 4515, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.43%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased by 3.25%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded higher staying above its 28-week exponential moving average, and its momentum indicator also climbed back to the overbought region. We will need the index to close higher than its previous high of 4607, making a higher high pattern, in the next few weeks to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/25/2023

Stocks closed the week mixed with growth stocks outperforming the general markets. The US economy is still resilient and chugging along. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell a bit in August but the labor market remains strong with the weekly jobless claims coming in at 320000, the lowest level in three weeks. On Friday, all attention turned to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's opening speech at the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium, which offers investors a clue about the Fed's future policy direction. However, no major policy shift was revealed this time as Powell's speech was still hawkish but more balanced. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.82% to 4405 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.45%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.26%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded 0.82% after 3 weeks of sliding and is 2.8% above its 28-week exponential moving average. As we discussed in the blog last week, it will be very interesting to see if the index can stay above the trend line next week or if it will experience a sell-off plunging below the trendline and setting the stage for recovery.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/18/2023

Stocks closed the week broadly lower as positive economic news pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since last October. Retail sales with a significant increase in discretionary spending jumped 0.7% in July, two times higher than the expectation, and Industrial production in July also went up 1%, tripling the consensus estimate. Investors worry that the overheating growth of the economy will force FED to hike the interest rate further to slow it down and keep inflation in check. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.11% to 4369 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.59%.

S&P 500 index continued its pullback for the third week. The last time S&P 500 index went continuing down for 3 weeks was in February. At that time, the index bounced off the 28-week EMA the next week followed by an impulsive selling and a recovery to continue the bull run. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] went down from 50 to 20 after the impulsive selling and bounced right back paving the way for the 5-month-long uptrend from March to July. The index is now 2% above its trend line support and the STO[15,1] is similarly at 53, we will see if the history will repeat itself this time.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/11/2023

Major indices closed the week mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Index managing a gain while S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite index suffered a loss. Investors were puzzled by the conflicting inflation data released on Thursday and Friday: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July went up 0.2 % a tick below the expectation but the Producer Price Index (PPI) in July went up 0.3% a tick above the expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.31% to 4464 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.62%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.9%.

S&P 500 index continued to head towards its 28-week exponential moving average which stood at 4270 this week. The index is 4.5% above its 28-week, bringing it within a more reasonable range. The momentum indicator, STO[15,1], has come down from the overbought and quickly heading downward. Our expectation is that the pullback will continue but the overall uptrend is still intact. An up-trend with digestion and pullback along the way to build support levels is a lot better than a non-stop rise and sharp plunge at the end.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/4/2023

Trading Signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks started the August trading sessions with weak performance due to rising treasury yield and unexpected downgrade of US crediting rating from Fitch Ratings. Economic data released during the week showed the slowdown in labor market and lower manufacturing activities: Nonfarm payroll increased 187000 in July well below the first five month average of 287000. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 46.4 in July below the 46.9 consensus number. PMI below 50 indicates the contraction in manufacturing activities. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.27% to 4478 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.11%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.85%.

A bearish engulfing candle stick pattern shows up in the weekly chart this week. The body of the white candle last week is contained within the larger red candle this week. This bearish engulfing pattern signals the upcoming correction. The index was 8% above its 28-week EMA last week, and will very likely head down to meet the EMA in the next few weeks. The first support from the chart is at 4300 and the next support is at 4200. The bull run will survive if the index can hold above its 28-Week EMA around 4300.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/28/2023

Stocks closed up broadly after FED hiked the interest rate by 0.25% as expected on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed will pause the rate hike after the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased only 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. In addition, the soft landing scenario is looking firmer with the economic data released during the week: The second quarter GDP showed the US economy growing 2.4% much higher than the expected 1.8%, The durable goods orders increased by 4.7%, and the personal spending also rose by 0.5% in June. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.01% to 4582 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.02%.

The positive technical structure of the S&P 500 index stays the same as last week. The index is 8% above its 28-week EMA with the STO [15,1] momentum indicator in the overbought region. We expect the index to reach an all-time high with some consolidations along the way to bring it closer to the 28-week EMA.

The Weekly Chart of The S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/21/2023

Stocks closed mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for the past ten days while NASDAQ composite index yielded a modest pullback. Economic data released during the week showed the cooling economy and strong labor market. Investors widely expect a 0.25% rate hike in the Fed policy meeting next week and pause for the rest of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.69% to 4536 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.08%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.57%.

S&P 500 continued to march higher and currently stands at 4536, 7.7% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The uptrend for S&P 500 index is still intact and we expect it to reach an all-time high. However, as the index is outside the normal deviation from its 28-week EMA, we will see some digestions along the way.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/14/2023

Stocks advanced broadly higher as the consumer price index released Wednesday rose 0.2% in June below the expectation. The softer inflation data gave investor hope that the Fed will slow down its rate hike or pause the rate hike after July. Investment sentiment was boosted also by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released Friday, which went up above expectation to 72.6 reaching the highest level in 2 years. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.42% to 4505, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.29%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.32%.

S&P 500 broke above the 4300-4450 trading range this week and closed comfortably at 4505. Slowly and steadily the index is heading towards the previous high of 4800 level.

The Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/7/2023

Stocks took a breather in this holiday-shorten week. The market opened for only half a day on Monday and closed the whole day for Tuesday's Fourth of July holiday. Investors' sentiment was weighed on by minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting released on Wednesday, which indicated that the Fed sees more rate hikes coming at a slower pace. However, cooler labor data released on Friday showing the US added 209000 non-farm jobs in June modestly below expectation provided some comfort to investors. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.16% to 4398, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.96%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.92%.

S&P 500 continued to form the flag pattern trading between 4300 and 4450 we discussed last week. As the index is well above its trend line with great momentum, our positive expectation stays the same: The index will reach the previous all-time high of 4800 level once the top of the channel is broken.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/30/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued their advance after a short consolidation the week before. Small-cap and value stocks inverted their roles this week outperforming the growth and large-cap stocks. Inflation data released Friday showed a downside surprise giving investors a boost in sentiment. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in May bringing the year-over-year increase down to 3.8%, the lowest level since April 2021. On the economic growth side, the first quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.0% from the previously estimated 1.3% showing the resilience of the economy and lessening the worries about the prospect of a recession in the second half of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.35% to 4450, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.02%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.19%.

S&P 500 looked to be forming a flag pattern and trading between 4300 to 4450 in the last three weeks. Once the top of the channel is broken, the next resistance levels are the 2022 March high of 4600, and the 4800 all-time high. We expect the index to continue heading higher after completing the flag pattern in the next couple of weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/23/2023

Major indices took a breather after five weeks of advance this week. Growth and large cap stocks outperformed the value and small cap stocks. Investors turned their focus back to interest rate hikes as Fed chair, Jerome Powell stated that there are hikes coming by the end of year to fight the stubborn inflation during his testimony before congress Wednesday. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.39% to 4348, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.67%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.44%.

S&P 500 made a healthy consolidation this week. It has come down from last week's 7% to this week's 5.3% above its 28 Week EMA. The uptrend is still intact as long as the index stays above its 28 week EMA. The momentum indicator of the index has come down a bit but is still in over bought region. We expect the index to continue heading higher after completing consolidation in the next couple weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/16/2023

Trading Signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42626, Buy FDGRX

Major indices continued its advance with Fed's announcement to skip the interest rate hike on Wednesday. Tamed inflation data released over the week also boded well for investment sentiment. Consumer price index increased 4.0% year over year in May which is much lower than the 4.9% in April, and the produce price index has declined 0.3% in May making it the fourth decline in the last 6 months. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.58% to 4409, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.25%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.25%.

S&P 500 has broken its 4300 resistance and closed solidly at 4409 this week. As the index is gaining momentum, we may see it reach the 4500-4600 level in the next couple weeks. However, the index, after five weeks of nonstop advance, is currently 7% above its 28 week EMA, and the odd of a pullback or consolidation is getting higher.

As growth stocks have come back into fashion and gaining momentum, a trading signal was issued in our RSP model portfolio this week to move portfolio holding from 42626 (SS WRLD DEV EXUS IDX) to FDGRX (FID GR CO POOL CL 3). The portfolio has held 42626 for 98 days with a gain of 7.46%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/9/2023

Major indices closed modestly higher as investors waiting for Fed's rate announcement next Wednesday. US weekly jobless claims went up to 261,000, higher than expected. Data released Tuesday also showed the contraction in service sector and decline in service price, which bolster the expectation that Fed will skip the rate hike in the upcoming meeting. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.39% to 4298, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.34%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.14%.

S&P 500 continued its uptrend and closed 2 points below its 4300 psychological resistance. Our technical outlook stay the same as last week: The index may see some consolidation or small pull back here but with the high momentum, it is well on its way towards the next resistance level at 4500-4530.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/2/2023

Major indices advanced solidly higher after debt ceiling agreement was reached, cleared huddles in both houses of congress and signed by Present Biden into law to avoid US default three days before deadline. On the economy front, non-farm payroll report released Friday showed that employers added 390K jobs in May, well above expectation while the unemployment rate also went up to 3.7% above the expected 3.4%. Investors interpreted favorably that the labor market is cooling which is good for the Fed to contain inflation while the economy is still strong enough and will more likely get into a soft landing rather than a recession later in the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.83% to 4282, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.02%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.04%.

S&P 500 jumped higher after closed above 4200 last week. With the index closing above the resistance level two weeks in a row, we can confirm the continuation of the uptrend since October, 2022. The index is currently near a 4280 - 4300 resistance level and may see some consolidation or small pull back. However, with the high momentum, we expect the index to break above the 4300 resistance and continue towards the next resistance level at 4500-4530.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/26/2023

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio, Sell RIGGX, Buy PCRIX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio, Sell IEV, Buy IYW

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, Sell EWI, Buy EWW

Major indices closed mixed as US debt ceiling negotiation between Biden administration and Republican congress leaders has not produced an agreement with June 5 deadline approaching fast. Technology sectors again outperformed the general markets with NVIDIA shares jump 24% due to surging AI chip demands . Investors focused more on Debt ceiling negotiation than potential interest rate hikes this week. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, went up a bit above expectation in April with year over year stood at 4.7%, which makes Fed more likely to raise interest rate again in June. However, the news failed to make a dent in traders positive sentiments. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.32% to 4205, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.51%.

S&P 500 index finally closed above 4200 resistance level after a few weeks of preparation. We will see if the index can stay above 4200 for another week to keep this rally going. As investment sentiment has turned more positive and investors are willing to take on more risk, growth stocks have come back in style. Three trading signals were issued in our model portfolios this week to replace their current holdings with the current number one funds in their respective ranking tables.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/19/2023

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio, Sell FIEUX, Buy FDGRX

Major indices advanced higher with solid gains as progress was made in US debt negotiation between Biden administration and Republican congress leaders but the positive sentiment was dampen a bit by a pause on Friday. Technology sectors outperformed the general markets while defensive health care, and utility sectors lagged. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.29% to 4191, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.38%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.04%.

S&P 500 index broke 4200 resistance intra week and closed a bit lower at 4191. This up trend since the low of last October has been led by Technology sectors as they rebounded from the severe loss due to interest hikes. Among the major index, Dow Jones Industrial Average has only gone up 0.8% since the start of the year, while S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite indices have gone up 9.2% and 20.9% respectively. For the uptrend to continue, we would need the index to close above 4200, and hopefully we can see that next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/12/2023

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Major indices closed mixed for the week as quarterly earning report season come to an end. Technology stocks outperformed the general markets while financial sector underperformed. Weaker than expected April consumer price which rose 4.9% failed to boot investor sentiment as concern about health of reginal banks and US debt ceiling negotiation between Biden administration and congressional leaders prevailed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.29% to 4124, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.11%, whiled the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.4%.

S&P 500 index formed a directionless doji pattern as it closed a bit below where it stated at the beginning of the week. The index is still consolidating above its 28 week EMA with strong momentum. May and June are seasonally weak months for stocks and this year is no exception. We just have to be patient and wait for some cartelists to provide conviction to the market.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/5/2023

Stocks closed lower with renewed worries about regional banks and after raising interest by 0.25% on Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell commented that cutting rates might not occurs as early as market had hoped for. Uneasiness about US reaching its debt ceiling on June 1 also weighted on investor sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.8% to 4136, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.24%, whiled the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.07%.

S&P 500 index formed another bullish pinbar candle stick pattern this week as shown in the weekly chart below. In the pin bar formation this week and last week, the wicks of the candles have successfully tested the 28 week EMA, and the short candle bodies above the trendline indicating that investors were willing to push the price higher. We are still looking forward to a break of 4200 for the index next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/28/2023

Stocks closed higher amid the busiest week of corporate earning reports. Investors were encouraged by better than expected quarterly earnings announced after market close on Wednesday and Thursday from large tech companies such as Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft. On the economy front, the estimated first quarter GDP came in 1.1% well below the expected 2.0% growth, durable goods order excluding aircraft and defense went down 0.4% in March, while retail inventories rose more than expected which further confirm the economy slow down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.87% to 4169, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.86%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.28%.

S&P 500 index continues to inch higher with increasing momentum. We are looking forward to a break of 4200 next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/21/2023

Stocks closed flat with negative bias as investors turned their attention to corporate earnings and economy growth. Analysts expect that overall earnings for S&P 500 index will decline for the second quarter and a mild recession is likely to come in the second half of this year. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.1% to 4133, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.23%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index decreased 0.42%.

Technical picture for S&P 500 index stays the same as the index still stays above its 28 week EMA with high momentum. A break of 4200 next week will ensure the continuation of the uptrend since October last year.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/14/2023

Stocks closed higher this week encouraged by the inflation data released Wednesday showing March consumer price index rose only 0.1%, below estimation. With the moderation of inflation, investors now expect Fed will stop hiking interest rate after the final raise by 0.25% in May. Investor sentiments were also boosted by positive quarterly earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.79% to 4137, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index increased 0.29%.

S&P 500 closed above its 28 week EMA for the third week and gaining momentum. Our positive outlook for the next few weeks remains the same.

Weekly chart of S&P 500

Fund Rankings Update, 4/7/2023

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed mixed in this holiday-shortened week. Investors turned their attention to economy growth as February job openings declined more than expected from the Labor department's report on Tuesday. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.1% to 4105, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.63%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index decreased 1.1%.

S&P 500 index took a break from the recent rally and formed a neutral doji candle stick pattern. The index is still above its 28 week exponential moving average and with great momentum. We think the momentum can still carry the index higher in the next few weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/31/2023

Stocks advanced for the third week with all major indices posted solid weekly gains. Investors were relieved as the bank turmoil receded and the inflation appeared to cool down as personal consumption expenditure price index for February coming in at 4.6% below the expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.48% to 41090, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.22%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index increased 3.37%.

From weekly chart below, S&P 500 index has solidly closed above its 28 week exponential moving average as well as the psychological resistance level of 4000. Its momentum indicator has turned positive and heading higher. As the index has formed a higher low formation, we expect it to continue marching higher to form a higher higher bullish pattern in the next few weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index