YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: July 2023

Fund Rankings Update, 7/28/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed up broadly after FED hiked the interest rate by 0.25% as expected on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed will pause the rate hike after the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased only 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. In addition, the soft landing scenario is looking firmer with the economic data released during the week: The second quarter GDP showed the US economy growing 2.4% much higher than the expected 1.8%, The durable goods orders increased by 4.7%, and the personal spending also rose by 0.5% in June. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.01% to 4582 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.02%.

The positive technical structure of the S&P 500 index stays the same as last week. The index is 8% above its 28-week EMA with the STO [15,1] momentum indicator in the overbought region. We expect the index to reach an all-time high with some consolidations along the way to bring it closer to the 28-week EMA.

The Weekly Chart of The S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/21/2023

Stocks closed mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for the past ten days while NASDAQ composite index yielded a modest pullback. Economic data released during the week showed the cooling economy and strong labor market. Investors widely expect a 0.25% rate hike in the Fed policy meeting next week and pause for the rest of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.69% to 4536 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.08%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.57%.

S&P 500 continued to march higher and currently stands at 4536, 7.7% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The uptrend for S&P 500 index is still intact and we expect it to reach an all-time high. However, as the index is outside the normal deviation from its 28-week EMA, we will see some digestions along the way.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/14/2023

Stocks advanced broadly higher as the consumer price index released Wednesday rose 0.2% in June below the expectation. The softer inflation data gave investor hope that the Fed will slow down its rate hike or pause the rate hike after July. Investment sentiment was boosted also by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released Friday, which went up above expectation to 72.6 reaching the highest level in 2 years. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.42% to 4505, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.29%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.32%.

S&P 500 broke above the 4300-4450 trading range this week and closed comfortably at 4505. Slowly and steadily the index is heading towards the previous high of 4800 level.

The Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/7/2023

Stocks took a breather in this holiday-shorten week. The market opened for only half a day on Monday and closed the whole day for Tuesday's Fourth of July holiday. Investors' sentiment was weighed on by minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting released on Wednesday, which indicated that the Fed sees more rate hikes coming at a slower pace. However, cooler labor data released on Friday showing the US added 209000 non-farm jobs in June modestly below expectation provided some comfort to investors. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.16% to 4398, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.96%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.92%.

S&P 500 continued to form the flag pattern trading between 4300 and 4450 we discussed last week. As the index is well above its trend line with great momentum, our positive expectation stays the same: The index will reach the previous all-time high of 4800 level once the top of the channel is broken.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/30/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued their advance after a short consolidation the week before. Small-cap and value stocks inverted their roles this week outperforming the growth and large-cap stocks. Inflation data released Friday showed a downside surprise giving investors a boost in sentiment. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in May bringing the year-over-year increase down to 3.8%, the lowest level since April 2021. On the economic growth side, the first quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.0% from the previously estimated 1.3% showing the resilience of the economy and lessening the worries about the prospect of a recession in the second half of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.35% to 4450, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.02%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.19%.

S&P 500 looked to be forming a flag pattern and trading between 4300 to 4450 in the last three weeks. Once the top of the channel is broken, the next resistance levels are the 2022 March high of 4600, and the 4800 all-time high. We expect the index to continue heading higher after completing the flag pattern in the next couple of weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index