YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: August 2023

Fund Rankings Update, 8/25/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed the week mixed with growth stocks outperforming the general markets. The US economy is still resilient and chugging along. University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell a bit in August but the labor market remains strong with the weekly jobless claims coming in at 320000, the lowest level in three weeks. On Friday, all attention turned to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's opening speech at the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium, which offers investors a clue about the Fed's future policy direction. However, no major policy shift was revealed this time as Powell's speech was still hawkish but more balanced. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.82% to 4405 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.45%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.26%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded 0.82% after 3 weeks of sliding and is 2.8% above its 28-week exponential moving average. As we discussed in the blog last week, it will be very interesting to see if the index can stay above the trend line next week or if it will experience a sell-off plunging below the trendline and setting the stage for recovery.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/18/2023

Stocks closed the week broadly lower as positive economic news pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since last October. Retail sales with a significant increase in discretionary spending jumped 0.7% in July, two times higher than the expectation, and Industrial production in July also went up 1%, tripling the consensus estimate. Investors worry that the overheating growth of the economy will force FED to hike the interest rate further to slow it down and keep inflation in check. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.11% to 4369 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.59%.

S&P 500 index continued its pullback for the third week. The last time S&P 500 index went continuing down for 3 weeks was in February. At that time, the index bounced off the 28-week EMA the next week followed by an impulsive selling and a recovery to continue the bull run. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] went down from 50 to 20 after the impulsive selling and bounced right back paving the way for the 5-month-long uptrend from March to July. The index is now 2% above its trend line support and the STO[15,1] is similarly at 53, we will see if the history will repeat itself this time.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/11/2023

Major indices closed the week mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Index managing a gain while S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite index suffered a loss. Investors were puzzled by the conflicting inflation data released on Thursday and Friday: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July went up 0.2 % a tick below the expectation but the Producer Price Index (PPI) in July went up 0.3% a tick above the expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.31% to 4464 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.62%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.9%.

S&P 500 index continued to head towards its 28-week exponential moving average which stood at 4270 this week. The index is 4.5% above its 28-week, bringing it within a more reasonable range. The momentum indicator, STO[15,1], has come down from the overbought and quickly heading downward. Our expectation is that the pullback will continue but the overall uptrend is still intact. An up-trend with digestion and pullback along the way to build support levels is a lot better than a non-stop rise and sharp plunge at the end.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/4/2023

Trading Signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks started the August trading sessions with weak performance due to rising treasury yield and unexpected downgrade of US crediting rating from Fitch Ratings. Economic data released during the week showed the slowdown in labor market and lower manufacturing activities: Nonfarm payroll increased 187000 in July well below the first five month average of 287000. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 46.4 in July below the 46.9 consensus number. PMI below 50 indicates the contraction in manufacturing activities. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.27% to 4478 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.11%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.85%.

A bearish engulfing candle stick pattern shows up in the weekly chart this week. The body of the white candle last week is contained within the larger red candle this week. This bearish engulfing pattern signals the upcoming correction. The index was 8% above its 28-week EMA last week, and will very likely head down to meet the EMA in the next few weeks. The first support from the chart is at 4300 and the next support is at 4200. The bull run will survive if the index can hold above its 28-Week EMA around 4300.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index