YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: September 2023

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed the week mostly lower as concern about the effect of high-interest rates, high oil prices, and the potential government weighed on investor sentiment. However, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index which was released Friday showed an increase of 0.1% in August over July, lower than the 0.2% expected. Year over year, PCE increased 3.9%, the first time in more than 2 years that it dropped below 4%. The reading indicated the moderation of inflation and the effectiveness of FED's high-interest policy. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 0.74% to 4288, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.34%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased by 0.06%.

The S&P 500 index continued to fall and closed below its 28-week exponential moving average as we discussed in the blog last week. The index has fallen continuously for 4 weeks losing 5.2% and making September its worst month of the year so far. September has been a weak month from a seasonality point of view: 7 out of the last 10 years stock performance has been negative for September. We are looking forward to a better performance in October as the momentum indicator of the index has rebounded a bit and trying to climb out of the oversold region. Hopefully, the rebound can continue and the index can soon break above its 28-week EMA which has turned into a resistance now.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/22/2023

Stocks closed sharply lower as the FED announced to keep the interest rate higher and longer. All eyes were on the FED's interest rate decision in its policy meeting Wednesday. The FED did not raise the interest rate but forecasted a higher-than-expected rate estimate for 2024 and 2025. Worries about the impact of UAW strikes and a potential government shutdown if Congress can not pass the funding bills before the deadline also dampen investor sentiment. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 2.93% to 4320, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.89%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 3.62%.

Two weeks ago, we discussed about the similarity of the S&P 500 index's price action in the past few weeks and the correction in February and March. This week, the index gets a sharp drop, a week later than in the Feb-March correction, and closed 2 points below its 28-week EMA. In the last correction, the index went below the 28-week EMA and came right back to resume the up-trend. As the momentum indicator of the index has fallen into the oversold region, we expect the index will fall below the trend line for a couple of weeks before it bounces back.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/15/2023

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSENX.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IEZ.

Stocks closed mixed this week as oil prices rose to $90 a barrel for the first time in 10 months. The slight pickup in CPI data released Wednesday and PPI data released Thursday showed that the road to the Fed's target of 2% inflation is still bumpy ahead. After the CPI and PPI data releases, all focuses are now turned to the Fed's decision to hike or steady the interest rate in the policy meeting next Wednesday, 9/20. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 0.16% to 4450, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.12%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 0.39%.

The S&P 500 index continued to go sideway and closed a bit lower this week within the range between 4607 and 4335. The index still stays above its 28-week exponential moving average with the momentum indicator at around the midpoint. The market is waiting for FED's interest rate decision next Wednesday. The index's reaction after the decision will give us a clue about the market direction for the rest of the year.

Fund Rankings Update, 9/8/2023

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy IOO.

Stocks closed lower for the holiday-shortened week. Positive economic news in lower weekly jobless claims and unexpectedly higher service sector activity caused concern about FED's hiking interest in their next policy meeting. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 1.29% to 4457, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.75%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 1.93%.

The S&P 500 index closed lower this week after the large advance last week. The index is still hovering above its 28-week exponential moving average while the momentum indicator came back down in the no man's land. As the index goes sideway, we will need it to either close higher than 4607 for confirmation of an up trend or close lower than 4335 for a downtrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/1/2023

Stocks advanced higher to start September and close the losing August. The labor market shows signs of cooling as the unemployment rate climbed from 3.5% to 3.8% in August and new job openings fell by 338,000 in July unexpectedly. In light of these economic data, the expectation that the FED will forgo the interest rate hike for the rest of the year increases giving sentiment a boost. For the week, the S&P 500 index went up 2.50% to 4515, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.43%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased by 3.25%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded higher staying above its 28-week exponential moving average, and its momentum indicator also climbed back to the overbought region. We will need the index to close higher than its previous high of 4607, making a higher high pattern, in the next few weeks to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index