YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: October 2023

Fund Rankings Update, 10/27/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IYE

Stocks closed sharply lower for the second week as worries about the higher interest rate prevailed. Quarterly corporate earning reports from high-tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, showed decent results meeting most of Wall Street's metrics. However, sentiments were so pessimistic that investors were only focused on the negatives in their reports. On the economic data front, US third quarter GDP went up more than expected at an annual rate of 4.9% due to strong consumer spending. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy costs increased to 0.3% in September from 0.1% in August, and the year-over-year measure ticked down to 3.7% in September from 3.8% in August. It is widely expected that the FED will halt the rate increase in their policy meeting next Wednesday. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 2.53% to 4117, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.14%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 2.62%.

The S&P 500 index went down sharply below its 28-week exponential moving average after failing to hold above the trend line last week. The index is 10.6% below its July high of 4607 and is currently 4.2% below its 28-week EMA. Its momentum indicator STO [15,1] has fallen deeply in the over-sold zone. We may see a minor rebound next week but the widespread negative investor sentiment will keep it under the trendline.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/20/2023

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed the week sharply lower as worries about geopolitical tension, less dovish comments from the FED chairman, and higher long-term treasuries weighed on investor sentiments. Positive economic data such as better-than-expected October retail sales and a lower weekly jobless rate also support keeping the rate “higher for longer” scenario. On Friday, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds reached 5% in intraday trading, the highest level in sixteen years. Higher bond yield pulls away investments for stocks and causes stock price volatility. For the week, the S&P 500 index went down 2.39% to 4224, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.61%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 3.16%.

The S&P 500 index went up at the beginning of the week trying to stay above its 28-week exponential moving average. However, it failed to hold up and plunged below the trendline as the week progressed. In addition, the index has experienced two big rejections at the 4400 level in the last two weeks. The index's momentum indicator STO [15,1] has turned south and fallen back below the over-sold threshold of 20. With this new data point, we think the index will stay below the trend line for a few more weeks before it turns around.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/13/2023

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell IOO, Buy Cash

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed the week mixed again as investors weighed on higher-than-expected PPI (producer price index and CPI (consumer price index) released during the week. However, dovish statements from FED officials and decreasing treasury yields due to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. For the week, the S&P 500 index went up 0.45% to 4327, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.79%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased by 0.18%.

Even with the pullback due to the higher-than-expected inflation data on Thursday and Friday, The S&P 500 index still closed the week above its 28-week exponential moving average. The momentum indicator STO [15,1] of the index is above the oversold threshold of 20 and heading higher. We would like to see the index climb above the 28-week EMA more to provide us more confidence in the uptrend resumption.

The Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/06/2023

Stocks started the October with mixed results with large-cap and technology stocks outperforming the general markets. This week was heavy on job-related economic data release. On Tuesday, data showed the US opened 9.6 million jobs in August more than the forecasted 8.8 million, while ADP employment data released on Wednesday showed 89000 jobs were created in September, lower than expected. The heavily focused US employment data released Friday showed that the US economy added 336000 jobs in September a lot higher than the 170000 expected by the consensus. The strong job data triggered the investors' fear of another rate hike from the FED and plunged the stocks before the market opened on Friday. However, stocks recovered and climbed higher after opening as investors digested the details of the job reports, and found that the small increase in average hourly earnings and high labor participation rate indicated that supply rather than demand is driving the labor market which is favorable for a low inflation environment. For the week, the S&P 500 index went up 0.48% to 4308, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased by 1.6%.

The S&P 500 index formed a bullish hammer pattern this week and closed only 10 points below its 28-week exponential average (EMA). Notably the index has turned positive after 4 weeks of slide and its momentum indicator STO [15,1] has climbed above the over-sold threshold of 20. The index may go back to its upward path if it can close above the trend line next week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index