YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: 2024

Fund Rankings Update, 9/13/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed sharply higher recovering the loss from the previous week with help from technology sectors. Core inflation in August released on Wednesday went up 0.3%, a tick higher than expected, while the headline inflation peaked at 2.5%, well below the 2.9% in July. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 4.02%, closing at 5626, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.6%, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.95%.

The S&P 500 index has successfully tested the 100-day EMA support and closed above its 10-day and 20-day EMAs on the daily chart. While the index did not fully test its 28-week EMA support at 5300 on the weekly chart, the price action suggests that it has completed the "W" shape recovery pattern and will likely continue its upward trend. Any dips to the 10-day or 20-day EMAs can be seen as buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/6/2024

Stocks closed sharply lower this week as worries about recession weighed on investors' sentiment. Data released during the week all painted a slowdown in economic growth. The ISM manufacturing PMI released on Tuesday remained firmly in contraction territory in August, and the July job openings reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday fell to 7.67 million, the lowest level since 2021. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the US added only 142K jobs well below the 164K jobs estimation. For the week, The S&P 500 went down 4.25%, closing at 5408, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.93%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.77%.

The S&P 500 index failed to close above its previous high of 5670 and plunged significantly to 5408, near its 28-week exponential moving average of 5309. This development has invalidated our anticipated "V"-shape recovery. Instead, a "W"-shape recovery becomes more probable if the index can find support around 5300 and successfully tested that level. However, the recent price action has formed a double top bearish formation with the neck line support at 5100. If that support was broken, we will see a major down turn which may take the index down to previous high of 4600. Despite this bearish scenario, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in its upcoming meeting on September 17-18 suggests that a "W"-shaped recovery remains a more likely outcome.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/30/2024

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EZA

Stocks closed mixed this week with the tech stocks dragged down by NVIDIA after its widely anticipated earning report. On the economic front, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index released on Friday morning showed prices rising only 0.2% in July and 2.6% year over year. Investors welcomed the data, which confirmed that inflation is easing and increased their confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 0.24%, closing at 5648, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.92%.

The S&P 500 index has approached its previous high of 5670. If the index closes above 5670 next week, a bullish "V" shape formation will be completed in the weekly chart and the index will continue its intermediate upward trend. As discussed before, a potential entry point will be after the index surpasses the previous high and then retraces back to retest the support at 5670.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/23/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IAT

Stocks advanced modestly higher this week with the Fed chair Jerome Powell hinting at a rate cut in September in his speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The economic data released over the week such as Flash manufacturing PMI, Flash service PMI, and existing home sales, all aligned with expectations. However, the non-farm payroll count was revised downward by a significant 818,000, far exceeding forecasts. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 1.45%, closing at 5634, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.27%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.4%.

As the S&P 500 index continues its rally, a bullish "V" shape formation will be completed if the index closes above the previous high of 5670. However, if the index fails to close above its previous high and falls right back, a bearish double-top pattern will be formed which will cause the index to fall back to the trend line support at 5300. For the first scenario, a potential entry point might be after the index surpasses the previous high and then retraces slightly to retest the support. In the second scenario, waiting for a rebound from the trendline support could mark the completion of the W-shaped recovery and offer an entry opportunity.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/16/2024

Stocks advanced broadly higher this week, encouraged by the tamed inflation data and positive economic news. The July core PPI reported on Tuesday by the Labor Department was flat month over month ending three months of increase, and the year-over-year CPI, reported Wednesday, fell to 2.9% for the first time in three years. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 1.0% in July well above the expected 0.4%, bolstering investors' "soft landing" scenario. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 3.93%, closing at 5554. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.29%.

The S&P 500 has rebounded sharply over the past two weeks, surpassing its 28-week exponential moving average. A continued upward trajectory without a pullback to close above its previous peak of 5670 would confirm a V-shaped recovery. In this scenario, a potential buying opportunity could arise after a retest of the 5670 level. However, if the index retraces back to its 20-day EMA (currently at 5400) or 100-day EMA (currently at 5320) on the daily chart, it would form a W-bottom pattern, presenting another buying opportunity. The market's behavior over the next two weeks will determine whether the recovery follows a V-shaped or W-shaped path.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/9/2024

Major indices closed modestly lower as investors continue to worry about economic growth. Stocks opened sharply lower on Monday but quickly found their way back as the week progressed. Positive economic news including the better-than-expected ISM Services PMI released Monday and the unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims on Thursday have eased the investors' recession fear. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.04%, closing at 5344. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.18%.

The S&P 500 opened the week sharply below its 28-week exponential moving average but quickly recovered and closed 2.2% above the trend line on the weekly chart. On the daily time frame, the index has fallen below its 100-day exponential moving average but managed to close above its 10-day exponential moving average. It appears that the index has completed its first leg of the "W" bottom formation. If the S&P 500 continues to rise above its 20-day exponential moving average and subsequently retraces to form the second leg of the "W" pattern within the next few weeks, it could mirror the corrective behavior seen in April and May, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/2/2024

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy ARGFX

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FBGRX, Buy FRESX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy DCZRX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FBIOX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IYR

Major indices closed sharply lower as investors grappled with disappointing economic indicators and mixed earnings from tech giants. Worries about the strength of the economic growth weighed heavily on investors' sentiment. The release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) July manufacturing activity on Thursday fell unexpectedly to 46.6 (Readings below 50.0 indicate contraction.) and the Labor Department reported that the U.S. added only 114,000 jobs in July, well below the expected 176, 000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.3% from 4.1%. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 2.06%, closing at 5346. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged another 3.35%.

The S&P 500 has experienced a sharp three-week decline and currently sits 2.4% above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) of 5219. A short-term rebound is possible next week as the index approaches the critical support level of 5260. However, negative momentum and the need for bottom formation suggest the pullback may extend for another few weeks.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/26/2024

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWN, Buy EWT

Investors continued to take monies out of tech stocks and rotate them into value and small-cap stocks for the second week. Core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index released by the Commerce Department rose 0.2% in June and 2.6% year over year, which enforced economists' expectation for a rate cut in September from the FED. Other economic data released during the week showed a mixed picture of the economic growth: Home sales were down more than expected as well as S&P's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (flash PMI). However, the Commerce Department reported that durable goods orders went up in June and consumer spending rose at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the second quarter, more than expected. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.83%, closing at 5459. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.75%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 2.08%.

The S&P 500 index bounced to 5459 this week after testing the psychological support at 5400. Despite the rebound, weakening momentum suggests the index is heading towards another hurdle: the 28-week exponential moving average around 5460, which also coincides with its previous peak. As we discussed last week, the market’s behavior at this key level could present a potential buying opportunity for the second half of the year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/19/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy IYW

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Investors dumped tech stocks in favor of value and small-cap stocks, leading to a major shift in stock market sectors. Previously hot chip stocks like NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell the most. Economic data showed mixed signals: June retail sales were surprisingly strong, while jobless claims increased. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that keeping interest rates too high for too long could hurt the economy. Economists now fully expect a rate cut in September. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.71%, closing at 5505. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.72%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 3.65%.

The stock market hit a rough patch after reaching a high near our target of 5700. The S&P 500 fell to 5505 after three days of heavy selling in technology stocks. The index is still trading above its 28-week exponential moving average, but some technical indicators (bearish engulfing candle stick pattern and falling momentum) suggest a potential pullback. If the price falls further, a key support level to watch is around 5265 which corresponds to the previous high and the 28-week EMA. This could be a good opportunity to buy, similar to what happened in April. But we will make our determination when we get there.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/12/2024

Stocks continued their rallies broadly this week with small-caps companies leading the way. Investors' sentiments were supported by the positive inflation data. Consumer Price Index released on Thursday by the Labor Department went down 0.1% in June making it the first decline since May 2020. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.87%, closing at 5615. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index went up 0.25%.

The S&P 500 index is currently 8.6% above its 28-week exponential moving average and continues to march higher. The index is at an all-time high and any bad news can trigger large swings. Our next target level for the index is 5700, but caution is needed as market corrections can occur without warnings.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/5/2024

The stock market kicked off the second half of the year on a positive note, reaching another record high. This rally was fueled by investor anticipation of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Weaker-than-expected economic data, including manufacturing and service PMI readings on Monday and Wednesday, as well as the soft June jobs report released Friday, pointed to a slowing economy. The S&P 500 climbed 1.95% for the week, closing at 5567. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%, and the Nasdaq composite index surged 3.54%.

The S&P 500 has continued its strong performance, reaching new record highs. This momentum could propel the index toward our next target level of 5700 with ease, but caution is still warranted as market corrections can occur even during bullish trends.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/28/2024

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy IYW

Stock markets remained mostly unchanged this week as investors adjusted their portfolios at the end of the first half of the year. On the economic data front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, which showed that prices excluding food and energy rose 0.1% month over month in May. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. This positive data increased investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.08% to close at 5460, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.08%, while the Nasdaq composite index went up 0.24%.

The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed our target of 5500 on Friday but fell back before closing. Despite this, our forecast for the index remains unchanged from last week. We believe a period of sideways movement or a minor pullback could actually solidify the foundation for the rally to continue in the latter half of the year

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/21/2024

Stock markets hit new highs again this week, with value stocks leading the charge over the growth and tech stocks. Despite weaker consumer spending data, with May retail sales missing expectations, a positive surprise came from the manufacturing sector. The PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.7, indicating continued strength in manufacturing. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.61% to close at 5464, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.45%, and the Nasdaq composite index remained flat.

The S&P 500 index dipped after briefly surpassing our target of 5500 on Thursday, closing lower for two straight days. Despite this short pullback, the index remains in a strong uptrend following a robust 9-week rally. It sits comfortably above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong upward momentum. We anticipate the index to maintain its overall upward trajectory, with potential periods of sideways consolidation.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/14/2024

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CSMUX, Buy MLAIX

US major indices closed mixed with technology and growth stocks outperforming the general markets. Enthusiasm about Artificial Intelligence continued to propped up tech sectors and the favorable inflation data released during the week boosted growth stocks. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that the May CPI (Consumer Price Index) was flat month over month and the core CPI was 0.2% month over month, 0.1% below expectation. On an annual basis, the CPI was 3.3 % year over year which was also 0.1% below expectation. In addition, data released on Thursday by the Labor Department showed that the May core Produce Price Index (PPI) was flat month over month, significantly below the expected 0.3% and the PPI was -0.2%, way below the expected +0.1%. Although these data were released after the Fed's decision to hold the interest rate steady for now and may have only one cut this year, investors hoped the progress in inflation could soften the Fed's future decision. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.58% to 5431, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.54%, and the Nasdaq composite index shot up 3.24%.

The S&P 500 continued its strong run this week, climbing 1.58%. The index remains well above its 28-week exponential moving average, indicating that its upward momentum is strengthening. We are optimistic that the index will hit its next target of 5500 soon.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/7/2024

US major indices closed higher with growth stocks outperforming the value stocks. Data released during the week painted a mixed picture of the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which gauges manufacturing activity fell to 48.7 below the 50.0 growth threshold, while the Labor Department reported US added 272000 jobs in May, well above the expected 182000 jobs. Analysts think that the FED will continue to keep the interest rate steady for the summer under the cooling manufacturing activities and hot labor market economic conditions. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.32% to 5346, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.29%, and the Nasdaq composite index shot up 2.38%.

A divergence between the S&P 500 index and its momentum indicator has started to develop in the weekly chart. The index has made another all-time high while its momentum indicator did not reach its previous high. The slowing momentum suggests that the recent uptrend may have slowly lost steam, and a consolidation period may be on the horizon. The index has continued its up trend after 3 weeks of sideway consolidation and reached our first resistance target of 5340. With the slowing momentum, it is uncertain if the index can reach its second resistance level at 5500.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/31/2024

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, Buy IDU.

US stocks closed lower this week with technology shares leading the way down. Economic data released during the week signals a benign economic environment. The core PCE index, Fed's favorite inflation gauge, went down 0.2% and the unemployment claims came in with 219000, in line with expectation. Despite these positive economic data, all major indexes still finished in the red. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 5277, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.98%, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 1.1%.

A divergence between the S&P 500 index and its momentum indicator has occurred in the weekly chart. The index has made a higher high in the weekly chart while its momentum indicator has made a lower high. This suggests that the recent rally may have run out of steam, and we may see a consolidation period ahead. The index has hovered around the 5300 level for the past 3 weeks after reaching the record high. It remains to be seen whether the index will continue its upward trend or experience a pullback from here.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/24/2024

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks closed mixed for the week with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite index making another all-time high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the worst setback since April. The focus and the major driving factor of the tech stocks is the quarterly earning report from AI-giant NVIDIA on Wednesday after the market close. NVIDIA stock went up more than 9% after reporting a 262% increase in quarterly revenue and a 629% increase in quarterly earnings over last year, handsomely beating Wall Street's expectations. The boost from NVIDIA did not translate into broader markets as economic data showed the economic growth rebound in May which raised the speculation for the Fed to wait longer before cutting the interest rate. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.03% to 5304, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.33% and the Nasdaq composite index advanced 1.41%.

The S&P 500 index closed the week before the long weekend almost flat indicating that it is searching for a direction at this record high junction. We think the index will continue to march higher as the index is 6.6% above its 28-week EMA, within the historical norm, and its momentum indicator is high in the overbought region. The next levels ahead are the 5340, and 5500 from the Fibonacci analysis.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/17/2024

Stocks advanced for the fourth week with the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq, all reaching record highs. The major factor boosting investors' sentiment was the April CPI index released on Wednesday. The CPI index came in lower than expected contrary to the higher-than-expectation PPI index released a day before. The core CPI in April rose 0.3% in line with the expectation while headline CPI rose the same 03% a tick below the expectation. The moderation of the inflation pressure lowered the treasury yields and propped up the major stock prices to all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.54% to 5303, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, breaking the 40000 psychological barrier, increased 1,24% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 2.11%.

As discussed, the S&P 500 index broke the previous high of 5262 without hesitation which signaled the continuation of the bull trend. The index is now in uncharted territory, with each new high being an all-time record making it difficult to predict where the top will be. Using Fibonacci analysis, the potential resistance levels were identified at 5340, 5500, and 5650. Only time will tell how high the index will climb.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/10/2024

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VFTAX, Buy CSMUX

Stocks advanced for the third week with light trading volume as Wednesday's market saw the third lightest trading volume day of the year. Economic calendars were not as busy either with only initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Higher initial jobless claims and lower consumer sentiment all pointed to a slow economy and softer labor markets. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.85% to 5222, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.16% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.14%.

With the strong advance, the S&P 500 index is closing in on its all-time high of 5265. Next week is critical in determining the index's direction: A decisive move above the 5265 and holding there would signal the continuation of the up-trend while a rejection at 5265 could create a double-top bearish formation on the weekly chart.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/3/2024

Stocks nudged upward for the second week under a slew of economy data and company earning reports. The positive reception to Apple's earning report on Thursday and the less-than-expected nonfarm payroll data on Friday morning boosted investor sentiments. The slowdown in the labor market and the monthly wage increase lessened the investors' worries about the inflation pressure. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.55% to 5127, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.14% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.43%.

The S&P 500 index started the week on the weak side falling below its 50-day exponential moving average but crawled back above the EMA and ended up a bit higher than its opening price to close the week. The price action formed a hammer candle pattern on the weekly chart which is deemed to be bullish. However, The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of the index sits at 67.43, nestled between the overbought and oversold thresholds suggesting a sideway consolidation may be in store for the next few weeks. May is traditionally a weak month for stock markets as the adage, "Sell in May and go away" goes. It remains to be seen if this adage holds true for the S&P 500 this year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/26/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio, Sell ITB, Buy IEO

Stocks recovered some of the loss ground after three weeks of selloff as investors responded to the positive company earning reports and the buying opportunities created by the recent slump in tech shares. Economy data released later in the week also boosted investors' sentiments. On Thursday, The Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% well below the estimated 2.5%, and on Friday it released the core personal consumption expenditures (core PCE) index of 2.82% month over month in March showing inflation continued its downward trajectory since October last year. For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 2.67% to 5099, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up 0.67% and the Nasdaq composite index rebounded 4.23%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded sharply this week, climbing back above the key psychological level of 5,000. However, momentum indicators are now falling below the overbought threshold of 80, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation period. We're closely watching the 4800 level, which remains critical support based on our previous analysis. The index's behavior around this level will be a key indicator of its near-term direction.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/19/2024

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks pulled back for the third week as tension in the Middle East and concerns of a higher and longer interest environment continued to weigh in on investors' sentiments. On Monday, The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in March went up 0.7% much higher than the expected 0.3%, which increased investors' worries about the Fed putting off the interest rate cut further out of the year. And nn Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated at an economic conference that it will take longer than expected to achieve that confidence to tame the inflation. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 3.05% to 4967, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up 0.01% and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.52%.

The S&P 500 index has declined for three weeks in a row, with a sharp pullback this week that brought it under the key psychological level of 5,000. The gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average has narrowed significantly, going from 9.6% three weeks ago to a modest 2.0%. 4800 will be a critical support level below for the index as it is near trendline support, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous high in January 2022. The behavior of the index at this level will tell us if this is a buying opportunity or the start of a longer downturn.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/12/2024

Stocks pulled back another week as geopolitical tension rose in the Middle East and signs of persistent inflation pressure weighed in on investors' sentiments. The consumer price index rose 0.36% in March and the overall index rose 3.5% on an annual basis while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% in March and 3.8% year-over-year according to the data released on Wednesday by the Labor Department. Both CPI and core CPI are all higher than economists' expectations and essentially destroyed investors' hope for a rate cut in June. Investor sentiments suffered another blow Friday as talk about Iran's preparation for attacking Israel drove oil prices and US dollars significantly higher. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.56% to 5123, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2.37% and the Nasdaq composite index went down 0.46%.

The S&P 500 continued its decline for another week with the gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average narrowing from 9.5% to a more usual 5.4%. It is interesting to see whether the index stays in a sideway consolidation or goes for a sharp pullback toward its 28-week EMA. As discussed last week, this may create an opportunity for rebalancing the portfolio holdings.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/5/2024

Stocks pulled back this week as treasury yields rose in response to positive economic data. The March ISM manufacturing index released Monday came in higher than expected and the job report released Friday indicated that the US added 303000 jobs well above the expected 200,000. These positive economic data have encouraged the Fed to take a wait-and-see attitude toward rate cuts and diminishing the likelihood of a rate cut in June. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.95% to 5024, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2.27% and the Nasdaq composite index went down 0.8%.

The S&P 500 index continued its sideway consolidation this week. The deviation from its 28-week EMA has been reduced to 7.5%. As discussed last week, the side-way consolidation is healthier and preferable than a sharp pull-back toward the trend line. Investors can reenter or take more risk when the trend line catches up with the index.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/29/2024

Stocks closed mixed for the holiday-shortened week. The economic data released during the week were mixed as well The durable goods rose 1.4% in February more than expected while consumer confidence ticked down slightly in March. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.39% to 5254, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.84% while the Nasdaq composite index went down 0.3%.

As the S&P 500 index stays above its 28-week exponential moving average with extreme deviation, it starts to go side way more often. We welcome this healthy side-way consolidation to digest the lofty gain since the beginning of the year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/22/2024

Stocks marched broadly higher after two weeks of pauses. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite both reached new record highs after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday. The Fed still anticipates cutting rates three times by the end of the year. The S&P 500 climbed 2.29% to 5234 for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.97% and the Nasdaq composite index went up 2.85%.

Following two weeks of sideways consolidation, the S&P 500 index surged higher, decisively breaking above the previously discussed 5170 resistance level. The next resistance level is 5340, 2% above where it is right now. With the high momentum, the index appears poised to continue its upward climb.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/15/2024

Fund rankings and trading logs will not be available this week due to my travel with limited internet access.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/8/2024

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy IGM.

Stocks took a pause ending the week where it began while reaching another new all-time high during the week. For the week, the S&P 500 index retreated 0.26% to 5123. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.93%, and the Nasdaq went down 1.17%.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/1/2024

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWW, Buy EWN.

Stocks marched upwards for another week as NASDAQ composite index reached a new record high. All eyes were on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index released Thursday. The index went up 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year, which aligned with expectations from Wall Street. For the week, the S&P 500 index advanced 0.95% to 5137. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.11%, and the Nasdaq went up 1.74%.

The S&P 500 index continued to rally higher stepping closer to the potential resistance at 5200 level. The deviation to its 28-week exponential moving average has also grown to 9.5%. The rally has been very strong as the momentum indicator stayed at the extreme highs for weeks. We don't know how long the rally will last but historical trends suggest that the index will eventually return to its trendline so enjoy the rally while you can but be aware of the potential risk and trade accordingly.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/23/2024

Stocks surged ahead on the back of the strong earning reports from the AI chipmaker, NVIDIA. On the economic data front, the initial jobless claims came in below expectation and S&P Global's purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) rose respectively to 51.5, the highest in 17 months. The tight labor market and the strength of the economy have prompted the FED to take a wait-and-see stance in cutting interest rates. For the week, the S&P 500 index advanced 1.66% to 5088. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.3%, and the Nasdaq went up 1.4%.

The S&P 500 index continued to rally higher after taking a short pause last week. The deviation to its 28-week exponential moving average has grown back to 9.2%. As the index continues to make new highs, it is difficult to estimate where the next resistance level will be. Applying Fibonacci retracement suggests a potential resistance level at 5164. However, uncertainty remains in the market's future trajectory.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/16/2024

Stocks went sideway as higher than expected consumer price index released on Tuesday weighed on investors' sentiments. The January CPI went up 0.3% higher than the 0.2% expected by economists and the core CPI went up 0.4% in January making it 3.9% year-over-year, far above the Fed's 2% target. The high inflation data have dashed investors' hope for a rate cut in March. For the week, the S&P 500 index retreated 0.42% to 5005. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.11%, and the Nasdaq went down 1.34%.

The S&P 500 index took a break this week after surging 5 consecutive weeks. The index dipped 0.42% below last week's close but still closed above the 5000 mark. This consolidation has helped narrow the gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average, from 9.3% to 8.2%. As the index still possesses extremely high momentum, we hope the index to continue its sideway consolidation to bring the deviation back to the historical norm and then make the next leg up, instead of a quick and deep pullback to its trend line.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/9/2024

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSRBX, Buy FSELX.

Stocks advanced higher again with the S&P 500 index reaching above the psychological target of 5000. This week was relatively quiet in terms of economic news. The January ISM service index released on Monday and the weekly jobless claims releases on Thursday all met the expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 index advanced 1.37% to 5026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.04%, and the Nasdaq went up 2.31%.

The S&P 500 index has reached above its 5000 psychological price target. The deviation from its 28-week exponential moving average is at 9.3%. As the index continues to move higher and the deviation from its trend line grows larger, we are taking a cautious outlook going forward. We do not know when the pullback or correction will come but when it comes it will be severe and swift.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/2/2024

Stocks continued to march higher amid the busiest week of company earning reports. The advance was narrowly focused on a handful of companies though. Microsoft, Google, and AMD saw their stock prices get hammered after weak guidance while Amazon and Meta saw their stock prices rocket higher after strong performances. On Wednesday, the FED left the interest rate unchanged as expected in its policy meeting. However, the FED chair stated that it is unlikely to lower the interest rate in March during his post meeting conference. His views were reinforced after the report released Friday that the US added 353,000 jobs in January significantly higher than the 185,000 expected. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.38%, closing at 4958. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.43%, and the Nasdaq went up 1.12%.

The S&P 500 index continued to march toward the 5000 psychological price target. Its deviation from the 28-week exponential moving average has reached 8.5%. We have signaled our caution in the last couple of blogs as the price will eventually come back to meet its trendline. Portfolio asset rebalance to take some profit and reduce risk should be a wise move at this juncture.

The weekly chart of the S$P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/26/2024

Stocks continued to march higher with the S&P 500 index reaching another record high as preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP grew at a pace of 3.3% far exceeding the estimation of 2%. Data released Friday showed the tamed inflation market condition with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rising 2.0% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations and the Fed’s long-term target. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.06%, closing at 4890. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.65%, and the Nasdaq went up 0.94%.

The S&P 500 index continued its rally reaching 4890 which is 7.8% above its 28-week exponential moving average. Although the index may keep marching higher toward 5000 (a psychological price target), the high deviation from the trend line warrants caution at this level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/19/2024

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWZ, Buy EWW

Stocks continued to march higher with S&P 500 index reaching a record high, the second one among the three major indices. The advance was narrow though focused on semiconductor sectors and artificial intelligence-related sectors. Data released during the week support the resilience of the economy but diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in March. The retail sales jumped 0.6% in October well above the expectation and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reached the highest level in three years. For the week, the S&P 500 surged 1.17%, closing at 4839. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.72%, and the Nasdaq shot up 2.26%.

The S&P 500 index broke the resistance and rocked to an all-time high of 4839 which is 7.3% above its 28-week exponential moving average. Given the index's significant deviation above its typical 5-6% trendline range, we anticipate sideways movement or even a slight pullback to consolidate recent gains in the coming weeks.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/12/2024

Stocks recovered from the loss last week with the tech sector leading the way. Inflation appears to be under control even though data released Thursday showed inflation is still stubbornly on the high side with the December consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.3% higher than the expected 0.2%. However, the producer price index (PPI) released Friday showed a drop of 0.1% in December making the core PPI with 1.8% for the whole year of 2023, which is within the Fed's target of 2%. Markets were also propelled by the health of the labor market as job data released Thursday showed 202000 people filed for initial jobless claims less than the expected 210,000. For the week, the S&P 500 surged 1.84%, closing at 4783. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.34%, and the Nasdaq shot up 3.09%.

The S&P 500 index recovered from last week's loss and stayed 6.6% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The index may consolidate sideway for the trend line to catch up in the coming weeks. However, with the impressive high momentum and the index's proximity to its all-time high (just 0.7% away), we think it is very likely that the index will achieve a record high in the next two weeks.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 01052024

Investors kicked off the year with a cautious attitude, sending stocks lower for the week despite signs of economic resilience. Data released throughout the week painted a picture of a surprisingly robust economy, with factory activity exceeding expectations according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing gauge. The December jobs report further fueled this perception, as employers added a hefty 216,000 jobs, significantly surpassing forecasts of 170,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, defying expectations for a slight increase. However, this robust data doused hopes for an imminent interest rate cut, driving investors towards a more defensive stance. Consequently, the S&P 500 shed 1.52%, closing at 46,979. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.59%, while the Nasdaq tumbled 3.25%.

The S&P 500's winning streak snapped this week, painting the first red candle after nine consecutive green ones, as investors adopted a more cautious stance. The index is now 5.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average down from 7.2% last week. With the elevated price and the slowing momentum, we think the pullback will continue in the coming weeks to digest the lofty gains in the past 9 weeks. Looking down, the first support will be the 4550-4600 previous high level and the second support is at the past resistance 4300 level. We shall see how this consolidation plays out.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index