YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: January 2024

Fund Rankings Update, 1/26/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued to march higher with the S&P 500 index reaching another record high as preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP grew at a pace of 3.3% far exceeding the estimation of 2%. Data released Friday showed the tamed inflation market condition with the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rising 2.0% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations and the Fed’s long-term target. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.06%, closing at 4890. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.65%, and the Nasdaq went up 0.94%.

The S&P 500 index continued its rally reaching 4890 which is 7.8% above its 28-week exponential moving average. Although the index may keep marching higher toward 5000 (a psychological price target), the high deviation from the trend line warrants caution at this level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/19/2024

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWZ, Buy EWW

Stocks continued to march higher with S&P 500 index reaching a record high, the second one among the three major indices. The advance was narrow though focused on semiconductor sectors and artificial intelligence-related sectors. Data released during the week support the resilience of the economy but diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in March. The retail sales jumped 0.6% in October well above the expectation and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reached the highest level in three years. For the week, the S&P 500 surged 1.17%, closing at 4839. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.72%, and the Nasdaq shot up 2.26%.

The S&P 500 index broke the resistance and rocked to an all-time high of 4839 which is 7.3% above its 28-week exponential moving average. Given the index's significant deviation above its typical 5-6% trendline range, we anticipate sideways movement or even a slight pullback to consolidate recent gains in the coming weeks.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/12/2024

Stocks recovered from the loss last week with the tech sector leading the way. Inflation appears to be under control even though data released Thursday showed inflation is still stubbornly on the high side with the December consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.3% higher than the expected 0.2%. However, the producer price index (PPI) released Friday showed a drop of 0.1% in December making the core PPI with 1.8% for the whole year of 2023, which is within the Fed's target of 2%. Markets were also propelled by the health of the labor market as job data released Thursday showed 202000 people filed for initial jobless claims less than the expected 210,000. For the week, the S&P 500 surged 1.84%, closing at 4783. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.34%, and the Nasdaq shot up 3.09%.

The S&P 500 index recovered from last week's loss and stayed 6.6% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The index may consolidate sideway for the trend line to catch up in the coming weeks. However, with the impressive high momentum and the index's proximity to its all-time high (just 0.7% away), we think it is very likely that the index will achieve a record high in the next two weeks.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 01052024

Investors kicked off the year with a cautious attitude, sending stocks lower for the week despite signs of economic resilience. Data released throughout the week painted a picture of a surprisingly robust economy, with factory activity exceeding expectations according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing gauge. The December jobs report further fueled this perception, as employers added a hefty 216,000 jobs, significantly surpassing forecasts of 170,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, defying expectations for a slight increase. However, this robust data doused hopes for an imminent interest rate cut, driving investors towards a more defensive stance. Consequently, the S&P 500 shed 1.52%, closing at 46,979. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.59%, while the Nasdaq tumbled 3.25%.

The S&P 500's winning streak snapped this week, painting the first red candle after nine consecutive green ones, as investors adopted a more cautious stance. The index is now 5.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average down from 7.2% last week. With the elevated price and the slowing momentum, we think the pullback will continue in the coming weeks to digest the lofty gains in the past 9 weeks. Looking down, the first support will be the 4550-4600 previous high level and the second support is at the past resistance 4300 level. We shall see how this consolidation plays out.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index