YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings: August 2024

Fund Rankings Update, 8/30/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EZA

Stocks closed mixed this week with the tech stocks dragged down by NVIDIA after its widely anticipated earning report. On the economic front, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index released on Friday morning showed prices rising only 0.2% in July and 2.6% year over year. Investors welcomed the data, which confirmed that inflation is easing and increased their confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 0.24%, closing at 5648, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.92%.

The S&P 500 index has approached its previous high of 5670. If the index closes above 5670 next week, a bullish "V" shape formation will be completed in the weekly chart and the index will continue its intermediate upward trend. As discussed before, a potential entry point will be after the index surpasses the previous high and then retraces back to retest the support at 5670.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/23/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IAT

Stocks advanced modestly higher this week with the Fed chair Jerome Powell hinting at a rate cut in September in his speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The economic data released over the week such as Flash manufacturing PMI, Flash service PMI, and existing home sales, all aligned with expectations. However, the non-farm payroll count was revised downward by a significant 818,000, far exceeding forecasts. For the week, The S&P 500 went up 1.45%, closing at 5634, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.27%, and the Nasdaq composite index increased 1.4%.

As the S&P 500 index continues its rally, a bullish "V" shape formation will be completed if the index closes above the previous high of 5670. However, if the index fails to close above its previous high and falls right back, a bearish double-top pattern will be formed which will cause the index to fall back to the trend line support at 5300. For the first scenario, a potential entry point might be after the index surpasses the previous high and then retraces slightly to retest the support. In the second scenario, waiting for a rebound from the trendline support could mark the completion of the W-shaped recovery and offer an entry opportunity.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/16/2024

Stocks advanced broadly higher this week, encouraged by the tamed inflation data and positive economic news. The July core PPI reported on Tuesday by the Labor Department was flat month over month ending three months of increase, and the year-over-year CPI, reported Wednesday, fell to 2.9% for the first time in three years. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 1.0% in July well above the expected 0.4%, bolstering investors' "soft landing" scenario. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 3.93%, closing at 5554. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.94%, and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 5.29%.

The S&P 500 has rebounded sharply over the past two weeks, surpassing its 28-week exponential moving average. A continued upward trajectory without a pullback to close above its previous peak of 5670 would confirm a V-shaped recovery. In this scenario, a potential buying opportunity could arise after a retest of the 5670 level. However, if the index retraces back to its 20-day EMA (currently at 5400) or 100-day EMA (currently at 5320) on the daily chart, it would form a W-bottom pattern, presenting another buying opportunity. The market's behavior over the next two weeks will determine whether the recovery follows a V-shaped or W-shaped path.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/9/2024

Major indices closed modestly lower as investors continue to worry about economic growth. Stocks opened sharply lower on Monday but quickly found their way back as the week progressed. Positive economic news including the better-than-expected ISM Services PMI released Monday and the unexpected drop in weekly jobless claims on Thursday have eased the investors' recession fear. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.04%, closing at 5344. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.18%.

The S&P 500 opened the week sharply below its 28-week exponential moving average but quickly recovered and closed 2.2% above the trend line on the weekly chart. On the daily time frame, the index has fallen below its 100-day exponential moving average but managed to close above its 10-day exponential moving average. It appears that the index has completed its first leg of the "W" bottom formation. If the S&P 500 continues to rise above its 20-day exponential moving average and subsequently retraces to form the second leg of the "W" pattern within the next few weeks, it could mirror the corrective behavior seen in April and May, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The daily chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/2/2024

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy ARGFX

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FBGRX, Buy FRESX

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy DCZRX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FBIOX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYW, Buy IYR

Major indices closed sharply lower as investors grappled with disappointing economic indicators and mixed earnings from tech giants. Worries about the strength of the economic growth weighed heavily on investors' sentiment. The release of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) July manufacturing activity on Thursday fell unexpectedly to 46.6 (Readings below 50.0 indicate contraction.) and the Labor Department reported that the U.S. added only 114,000 jobs in July, well below the expected 176, 000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.3% from 4.1%. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 2.06%, closing at 5346. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged another 3.35%.

The S&P 500 has experienced a sharp three-week decline and currently sits 2.4% above its 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) of 5219. A short-term rebound is possible next week as the index approaches the critical support level of 5260. However, negative momentum and the need for bottom formation suggest the pullback may extend for another few weeks.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index