Fund Rankings Update, 4/25/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Major indices advanced higher as news of de-escalation of trade tension between US and China were reported, along with likely trading agreements with other countries.  President Trump's clarification of not firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell also provided support to investors' positive sentiment.   For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 4.59%, closing at 5525, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite shot up 6.73%.

The S&P 500 index began the week with a decline but found its footing at the round-number 5100 support level, staging a strong four-day rally. The index closed at 5525, slightly breaching the 5500 resistance mark. Should the S&P 500 maintain levels above 5500, the 28-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 5686 emerges as the next resistance. It's worth noting that the index already faced rejection once at this EMA during the week of March 24, as seen on the weekly chart. Given that the S&P 500 remains below this significant EMA, our outlook remains bearish, anticipating a potential rejection at the EMA and a subsequent retest of the previous low around 5000.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/17/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IXG, Buy IYK

Trading signal occurs in the iETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWP

Major indices closed the holiday-shortened week lower as tariff concerns lingered. President Trump escalated the trade war with China by increasing the tariffs to 245% on Chinese goods and adding new restrictions on AI chips exporting to China, which greatly impacted Nvidia and AMD.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, closing at 5282, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite gave up 2.62%.

Following a strong bounce, the S&P 500 has settled above the midpoint of its prior trading range. However, the index remains firmly within a bearish trend, trading considerably below its 28-week exponential moving average. Furthermore, its momentum indicator continues to register below the neutral 50 level. As we highlighted in last week's blog, it's wise to remain patient and await crucial buy signals, specifically a "W" bottom formation and a break above the EMA resistance. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 4/11/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed the volatile week higher as President Trump announced a pause of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days at the last minute on Wednesday to allow for negotiations.  However, the trade war with China escalated as China retaliated with 125% tariff on US goods against US's 145%.  The inflation data for March also provided comfort to investors. The core CPI rose 0.1% from February, the lowest in nine months.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, closing at 5363, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 4.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.29%.

The S&P 500 experienced a sharp rebound after hitting a low of 4835, closing the week at 5363. This followed a two-stage decline from 6147 (first leg to 5504, second leg to 4835). The index's close above the key 5000 support level, along with its momentum indicator exiting oversold territory, suggests potential trading within the 5000-5500 range. Aligning with last week's analysis, a "W" bottom formation and a break above EMA resistance will be key signals for long-term buying opportunities.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Updatge, 4/4/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FCNTX, Buy FIEUX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FBMPX, Buy FSTCX

Stocks closed sharply lower as President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs against the world on Wednesday.  The harsher-than-expected move triggered fears of retaliation from other countries, as well as higher inflation and economic recession.  While Wall Street is now looking for the Fed's help to counter the impact of tariffs by lowering the interest rates, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, still wants to wait for more clarity before adjusting the money policy.  For the week, the S&P 500 gave up 9.08%, closing at 5074, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 7.86%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 10.02%.

The S&P 500 index plunged Thursday and Friday after President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, after the market closed.   In the weekly chart below, the index closed below its 28-week exponential moving average the week of March 3 and rebounded before reaching the low of 5504. The index tested the EMA resistance of 5787 during the rebound last week (week of March 24) and experienced severe rejection. The index then fell sharply lower after breaking the the previous low of 5504.  As investors quite oftern overreact to the panic selling, the index may continue to fall to the previous high support at 4600 if it can not hold the current 5000 pyshological support.  From past experience, it is better  to wait before taking trading action at this juncture: Wait for rebound and sell when the index receives rejection at EMA resistance, or wait for "W" shape bottom and breaking above EMA resistance to buy into the market.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index