Fund Rankings Update, 5/30/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSTCX, Buy FSDAX.

Trading signal occurs in the ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy EWW.

Stocks closed modestly higher as investors grappled with uncertainty surrounding the enforcement of President Trump's tariff policy. This confusion stemmed from a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and the administration's subsequent appeal.  On the economic front, consumers received some good news as inflation eased in April. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation gauge, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in March. Adding to the positive sentiment, the Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant jump in May, climbing 12.3 points to 98. Separately, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment remained flat in April, putting an end to four consecutive months of steep declines.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.88% to close at 5911, the Dow Jones gained 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.01%.

The S&P 500 index formed an inside bar candle stick pattern this week above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong momentum.   The underlying bullish trend remains intact as the index has consolidated side way for three weeks above its critical support level following the recent sharp rebound. The current technical setup leans towards continued strength after this period of consolidation.  A breakout above the high of this week's inside bar and subsequently the previous high of 5968 would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially lead to a new all-time high.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/23/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings" and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IYK, Buy ITA

Stocks took a breather after a big surge last week.  Investors' sentiment was weighed on as the yields of US treasuries shot up after a downgrade from the credit agency Moody at the end of the prior week. President Trump's announcement to slap a 50% tariff on goods from the EU also added to the slide of the stock market. The S&P 500 lost 2.61% to close at 5802, the Dow Jones fell 2.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.47% for the week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/16/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in the HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy RIGGX.

Stocks surged this week, fueled by news of a 90-day tariff rollback agreement between the U.S. and China.  Adding to the positive sentiment, the BLS reported lower-than-expected April inflation, with core CPI at 0.2% and CPI rising 2.3% year-over-year. The PPI also unexpectedly declined, raising investor hopes for a more accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy. Consequently, the S&P 500 soared 5.277% to close at 5958, the Dow Jones gained 3.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite leaped 7.15% for the week.

The S&P 500 index shot up and closed well above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong momentum, signaling the resumption of its uptrend.  With the upward and strong momentum, the index may continue its advance with the resistance levels at 6000 (the psychological resistance) and 6150 (the previous high). However, the index has rebounded more than a thousand points in a short six-week period and may be due for a pullback to digest its lofty gains.  Should a pullback occur, the support level to watch is the 28-week exponential moving average at  5703.  Continue monitoring support and resistance levels will be crucial in determining the index's next direction. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/9/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks took a breather this week, with major indices closing the week flat. Signs of the trade de-escalation emerged as US and Chinese representatives plan to meet in Switzerland this weekend for trade discussions. On Thursday, the Trump administration also announced the first trade deal under "reciprocal tariffs" with the United Kingdom, signaling more deals will come.  On Wednesday, the Fed announced that it will keep the interest rate steady and continue its wait-and-see attitude, citing the uncertainty of the economic outlook from higher tariffs.    For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.47% to close at 5659, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite notched down 0.27%.

The S&P 500 index ended the past week marginally lower, settling beneath its critical 28-week exponential moving average at 5684 and forming an indecisive weekly candle.  The behavior of the index is being closely monitored as a breakout and hold above this critical EMA would signal a resumption of the uptrend, whereas a failure to overcome it could precipitate a sharp downward move.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/2/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42626, Buy 05069.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Fueled by ongoing trade war de-escalation and strong tech earnings, major indices climbed for a second consecutive week. Despite a 0.3% contraction in Q1 US GDP—the first since 2022, driven by decreased consumer and government spending—the economy showed resilience with April's robust job growth of 177,000, exceeding the anticipated 135,000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 2.92% to close at 5686, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.42%.

Having closed the week at 5686, the S&P 500 finds itself precisely at its critical 28-week exponential moving average. As previously highlighted, this level represents a significant resistance point that will likely dictate the index's near-term trajectory. Notably, the S&P 500 experienced rejection at this same EMA during the week of March 24th. Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, a decisive break and sustained trading above 5686 could signal the end of the recent bearish pullback and the potential resumption of a bullish trend. Conversely, another rejection at this EMA could lead to a downward move, with a potential retest of the 5000 support level. The behavior of the index around this key moving average will be closely monitored over the coming two weeks for directional clues.   

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index