Fund Rankings Update, 6/17/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average finally stopped 6 week of loosing steak but NASDAQ composite index still kept marching downward. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1271 up 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.03%. Fear of the ripple effect from Greece debt crisis and uncertainty about the end of QE2 which will happen at the end of June kept investors on the side line. In this bearish environment, defensive funds such as utility and healthcare have risen in the ranking tables, and some of our model portfolios also have moved to defensive positions to reflect this market correction. We do not know when the market will finish this correction phase and turn around. We can only hope the end of the tunnel is near.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/10/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDSCX, Buy FIUIX

Fear of economy slow down weighed on the markets this week and stocks suffered the sixth week of loss since end of April. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1270 down 2.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.64%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.26%. The weekly chart of S&P 500 index below shows that the index has decisively fallen below its support at 1300, and its momentum is getting worse. As discussed last week, the next support level is around 1220, and this correction will last for a while. Note that, the 1300 level becomes a resistance now.

Withe the correction in progress, the SSPP model portfolio has issued a trading signal. It rotates out of the more aggressive small cap fund, FDSCX, and move to a more defensive utility fund, FIUIX.

While reviewing the ranking tables, I also found that, the fund prices for SSGA REIT index, SSGA mid/small cap index and SSGA emerging market index in the RSP ranking tables are not very up-to-date for the past few weeks. As a result, their AMI rankings may not be very accurate. Since these funds are not public traded, I have no other sources to obtain the quotes other than logging into my 401k plan website to manually retrieve them every week. In a month, more fidelity funds will be phased out in RSP and new private funds will be added due to plan change . Rankings of the new funds will be even more difficult at that time.

Fund Rankings Update, 6/3/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

All the economy data (consumer confidence, manufacturing activities, jobs report, .etc.) came out weak this week suggesting that the economy recovery has hit a soft patch in the month of May. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1300 down 2.32%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 2.29%.

As shown in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, the index is falling right on the trend line and the momentum index is heading downward. It is critical to see if the index can bounce back from this support level. If the current 1300 support fails to hold, the next level will be around 1220.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/27/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Mixed bag of economy data this week provided little direction for stock markets. Stocks drifted lower for the fourth week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1331 down 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.56%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.23% for the week. Weekly chart of S&P 500 index shows that the index is testing the trend line. The concern I have from technical point of view is that the momentum indicator is drifting downward and is showing divergent pattern with the price movement. Anyway, we will know the outcome of this test in a few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/20/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42632 (Small CAP growth), Buy 42627 (REIT index).

Stocks drifted lower this week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1333 down 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.66%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.89% for the week. Stocks are moving side way and it looks like this side way movement will last for another few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/13/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IBB.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy IHF.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX model portfolio: Sell FEMKX, Buy CASH.

With dollar gets stronger, the emergent markets and commodity markets faltered. US stock market, on the other hand, fared better. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1337 down 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.34%, while the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased 0.03% for the week.

This week with the volatility in oil prices, we've seen the money rotated out of the oil related sectors into healthcare/biotech sectors and trading signals were issued in ETF and sETF model protfolios respectively. The stronger dollars also caused the momentum indicator of FEMKX to drop down to 71, below the selling threshold of 75 and a sell signal is issued for FEMKX timing model.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/6/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSESX, Buy FBIOX.

Silver price crashed first and the Oil price followed. Collapes of these commodity prices put pressure on the stock market. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1340 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.34%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index decreased 1.60% for the week.

The months of May and June are usually "cool" months for stock markets, and the action of major indexes in this first week of May kind of validate that. The good company earning news and stronger than expected job growth in April failed to inspired investors. However, I do not see any disruption to the up-trend from technical point of view. Momentum of The S&P 500 index is still high and the prices is still above the trend line as observed in the weekly chart below.

Sharp drop in the oil price triggered the selling signal in our SELECT model portfolio. We will sell energy service sector fund, FSESX and buy the current top rank fund, FBIOX (bio technology).