Fund Rankings Update, 6/15/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Stocks continue their technical rebound the second week. SP 500 index closed this week at 1342, up 1.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.7%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 0.5%. 


In the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has closed above its 28 week moving average, and the momentum has come out of the oversold area. An encouraging sign that the index is slowly turning around. However, investors are nervously waiting for Greece election outcome Sunday. I expect that we will see high volatility in the stock markets Monday. Whether Greek people select a pro-bailout government, stocks will have short term violent move one way or the other. The worst outcome in my opinion is that they still fail to form a majority government. In that case, uncertainty lingers and we all know how  much stock markets dislike uncertainty.  

Fund Rankings Update, 6/8/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in Select model portfolio: Sell FSHOX, Buy FSUTX.
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy CASH.


Technical rebound occurred again at the important 200 day moving average for all the three major indexes.  SP 500 index closed this week at 1325, up 3.73%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.59%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 4.04%. 


After briefly fell below their 200 day MA, it is encouraging to see all the three major stock indexes get right back to stay above their 200 day moving averages and their daily momentum gaining traction.  While the S&P 500 index is still below the 28 week MA in the weekly chart, its momentum indicator has reversed its downward direction. This gives us some hope that we may have seen the short term bottom and will see the start of consolidation and hopefully the reversal. 


After nine weeks of downtrend, we have another two trading signals this week. In SELECT model portfolio, we are moving away from construction and housing sector and get into more conservative utility sector. We have held FSHOX for 6 months with a gain of 19%. In the iETF, we are selling EWS and move to cash because of negative AMI in the first rank. Global regions have under-performed  comparing to US stock markets because of European debt crisis and slowdown in China economy. The trades have not been profitable in the past 2 years for iETF model portfolio. With the way Europe is handling its problem, we see the situation will last for a while. 

  

Fund rankings update, 6/1/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Stocks suffered the worst day of the year Friday due to continuing worries about European debt crisis and worst than expected US employment report. SP 500 index closed this week at 1278, down 3.02%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7 % and Nasdaq composite index decreased 3.17%. 


The technical rebound last week unfortunately did not materialized. The sharp drop on Friday made S&P 500 index fell below its 200 day moving average. If the index can not get right back above the support, we will have a long summer to endure. This pessimism outlook can be observed from the weekly chart as well. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index has closed below its 28 week moving average for 3 weeks, the momentum is below 20 in the oversold territory, and no sign of market reversal. Some good economy news are needed to excite this market.

Fund Rankings Update, 5/25/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell FKASX, Buy IUTIX.


Technical rebound occurred at the important 200 day moving average for all the three major indexes.  SP 500 index closed this week at 1317, up 1.74%. Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.69%, and Nasdaq composite index increased 2.11%. 


It is encouraging to see all the three major stock indexes managed to stay above their 200 day moving averages in the daily charts. We should see some short term rebound in the coming weeks to relieve the excess selling pressure. However, the momentum index of S&P 500 index is just about to enter the oversold area in its weekly chart. Longer term, we may see the index stay below or around its 28 week moving average for a few more weeks or a couple of more months before the index turns around.

Daily Chart of S&P500 index

Weekly Chart of S&P500 index

Fund rankings update, 5/18/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDGRX, Buy FRESX.


Concern about European's debt crisis and the pace of US economy growth plunged the stock markets again. SP 500 index closed this week at 1295, down 4.3%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.52%, and Nasdaq composite index dropped 5.28%. 


S&P 500 index has fallen below the support level of 1300 that I mentioned last week, and there is no letting up of the selling pressure.  Price movement of the index looks pretty similar to the sell-off in August last year. The index looks to be heading lower for another couple of weeks before it stabilizes. Looking back, the sell signal from our FEMKX timing system two weeks ago proves to be the right call. 

In this sell-off environment, patient is virtue. Markets tend to overshoot in both ends, and this may create some buying opportunities. For example, let's look at APPLE. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Apple can be bought at $550 as a riskier trade or at the price where it meets its 28 week moving average for a safer trade. Apple closed this week at $530 and its 28 week moving average is at $490. With the current bearish market sentiment, we may have the opportunity to buy Apple at around $500 or even below when the price meets the 28 week moving average. 

Fund Rankings Update, 5/11/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Weak confidence and European's voters revolt on austerity measures plunged the global stock markets. SP 500 index closed this week at 1353, down 1.15%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.67%, and Nasdaq composite index dropped 0.76%.


S&P 500 index has fallen to intra-week low of 1343, bounced back and closed at 1353. I have pointed it out that there is a short term support at 1340 - 1350. With the declining daily and weekly momenta, it now looks like the index will come down further to the next support at 1300.  

    

Fund Rankings Update, 5/4/2012

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings


Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio, Sell 050587 (LSV LGE CP VALUE EQ), Buy 42627  (SSGA REIT INDEX).
Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, Sell EWG, Buy EWS.


Friday's US job report showed that the economy only created 115,000 jobs in April, well below Wall Street's expectation of 170,000. Investors feared that the slowdown in US economy will cause a repeat of stocks' performance last year, and started dumping stocks. SP 500 index closed this week at 1369, down 2.44%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.44%, and Nasdaq composite index dropped 3.68%.    


Weekly chart of S&P500 index shows that the index has been in a consolidation mode trading between 1370 and 1410 for the past four weeks, and the Stochastic indicator shows that its momentum is deteriorating and heading downward. Will the index continue its consolidation to digest the lofty gain from this rally and wait for the 28 week moving average to catch up, or will the index fall to the short term support at 1340 - 1350 level in the coming weeks meeting the rising 28 week moving average and bounce from there?  It will be interesting to see how this one play out.