Fund Rankings Update, 8/1/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, Buy IYW.

Selective default of Argentina's debt, bank trouble in Portuguese, and geopolitical tension in Ukraine and Gaza handed wall street the largest weekly drop the year.  S&P 500 index fell to 1925, down 2.59%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.75%, and technology loaded Nasdaq composite index decrease 2.18% for the week.   

As stock prices trending higher, they get more vulnerable to outside stimulus. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, we can see the long red candles occurred 3 times this year. The first one in mid January, the second time in end of March and the third time this past week. In each time, the 28 week moving average was successfully tested and the index rebounded in a week of two. Currently, the 28 week moving average is at 1894 which is also the resistance level during March- May consolidation period. This 1890-1900 level should provide firm support to this pull-back and we hope that the market can rebound from there.

After hitting the $100 resistance in mid-June, IEO has been weak and has seen its momentum dropping. Its AMI rank dropped to 10 this past week, and we will replace it with the current number one ranked fund, IYW in the sETF ranking table. We have held IEO for 88 days with a profit of 1.4%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/25/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Volatility due to company earning reports and geopolitical tension in Ukraine and Gaza continued this week. S&P 500 index is essentially flat at 1978, up 0.01%. Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.82%, and technology loaded Nasdaq composite index increase 0.39% for the week.   

Company earnings have been better than analysts' estimates. More than two thirds of the companies that have reported second quarter earnings have beaten Wall street's estimates. However, companies, like Amazon, McDonald's, which reported disappointing earnings were severely punished by investors. Weekly chart shows that S&P 500 index continued to be in a wait and see mode looking for direction. We think this holding pattern may continue for another few weeks as what had happened earlier this year in March to May time frame.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Frund Rankings Update, 7/18/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks experienced higher volatility due to earning season and geopolitical tension in Ukraine and Gaza. Large cap stocks managed to advance while small cap stocks went down.  S&P 500 index closed at 1978, up 0.54%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.92%, and Nasdaq composite increase 0.38% for the week.   

Weekly chart shows that S&P 500 index has been flat for 3 weeks as investors digest the gain and seeking direction. However, that does not tell the whole picture of this consolidation. The large cap and mid cap companies has been holding up quite well during this consolidation, while small cap companies suffered. In the weekly chart of Russel 2000 index which represents small cap companies, the index has come down 5% from its previous high in the last two weeks.  

As for industrial sectors, other than energy sectors, technology sector is coming up strong which also boosted countries like Taiwan, Mexico and other emerging countries in the global arena.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Weekly Chart of Russell 2000 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/11/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWP, Buy INP

Just as we thought the financial crisis is behind us, a major bank in Portuguese failed to pay interest for some of its debt. Investors' worries about the health of European financial system pulled down the market for the week and gave the current rally an opportunity to digest its gain.  S&P 500 index closed at 1967, down 0.9%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.73%, and Nasdaq composite decrease 1.57% for the week.   

Profit taking to reduce exposure of risk before the 2000 physiological level can be seen in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index is also trading at the top of its trending channel with high momentum. We may see another few weeks of consolidation, but at this stage, the pull back is considered a healthy pause to bring the index back to the middle of the trading channel.  

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/4/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.


Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FRESX, Buy FICDX 
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell EZA, Buy IGE 

Boosted by solid economy data and better than expected job report, stocks went up for the short trading week. S&P 500 index closed at 1985, up 1.25%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.28%, and Nasdaq composite increase 2.0% for the week.   

Energy related sectors have been very strong recently due to higher energy prices. Two trading signals were issued this week in SSPP and ETF model portfolios. In both cases,  the current holdings were replaced with energy related funds: FICDX and IGE. We have hold FRESX for 87 days with 5.2% gain and have hold EZA for 52 days with 0.35% profit. 

Stocks continue to trend up with high momentum. No one knows when the party will be over, but we will ride the trend up as long as we can with, of course, caution in mind.  Have a happy Independence Day holiday! 

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/27/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.


Large cap indices retreated a bit at record high levels while technology sectors continued to advance. S&P 500 index closed at 1960, down 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.56%, while Nasdaq composite increase 0.68% for the week.   

Technical pictures for the major indices remain the same. We still expect some selling pressure as S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average are at their record levels and the Nasdaq is at its previous high. The selling pressure looks to be in short term nature with no threat to the current up-trend.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/20/2014

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.


Stocks resume its steady march this past week. S&P 500 index closed at 1962, up 1.38%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.02%, and Nasdaq composite increase 1.33% for the week.   

Although the short term pulled back to support level did not happened this past week and all Major indices advanced to new highs, S&P 500 is a couple of percentage away from its resistance of 2000 and Nasdaq is right at its resistance of 4370.  Consolidation or temporary pause is expected in the next couple of weeks. 

This week is the 10th anniversary of this blog site. The ranking posts started on June 18, 2004 with two AMI ranking tables: SSPP and SELECT, and were originally posted on Yahoo's site. Over the years, the rankings tables were expanded to include HSA, RSP, ETF, sETF and iETF. During this 10 years, we have experienced booming market between 2005 - 2008, great recession in 2008 - 2009, market recovery between 2009 - 2012, and the bull market since 2012. It even surprises me that I have not missed one week of posting. At the end, the performance of SSPP and SELECT hold up pretty well compared with the general market performance. Thanks you all for reading the posts in the past and hope you keep supporting this blog site. 

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 Index: 10 Year Monthly Chart