Fund Rankings Update, 11/13/2105

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 After six weeks of advance, stocks finally took a breather but fail sharply lower.  Worries about a rate hike in December haunted the markets through out the week after strong job report last Friday. Technology sector and retail sector were dragged down the most by negative earning reports from CISCO and Norstrom.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2023, down 3.63%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.71% and Nasdaq composite index fell the most by decreasing 4.26%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A long red candle showed up this week in the weekly chart of S&P 500 index reflecting the overwhelming negative sentiment in the market. In the past two weeks, I have discussed the test of the support level after S&P 500 index breaking above its 28 moving average.  A successful test is needed to keep the momentum going and sustain the up trend. Ideally we would like the pull back to be mild and not as disruptive, but this time the rally on the way up was too fast so the pull back we get is sharp and violent. As the index fell below the support, it is critical to see if it can pick itself up and climb back above its 28 week moving average in the next couple of weeks. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/06/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IGM.
Major indices continued to march higher for the sixth week.  Job report Friday showed US economy added more than 270,000 jobs in October far better than the expected 185,000. The job report not only provided evidence that US economy growth is still on track, it also provided ammunition  for FED to raise interest rate in December. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2099, up 0.95%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 1.85%

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 Three weeks ago, S&P 500 index climbed above it 28 week moving average and its STO went higher than 50 signaling the close of the 9 week correction phase. The next question is whether the index can maintain its momentum and resume the up trend is had before the correction. In the last two blogs, I have said that the rally has been very strong and the index has move up very fast. It will be healthier if the index can take a pause for a couple of weeks to digest its gain and move higher afterwards.  At the same time, the index is approaching the resistance of previous high in 2125 area so some consolidation action are expected. 

Another model portfolio move from the cash position to long equity position. sETF model portfolio has met its 30 day holding threshold for cash position and move to buy the current number 1 rank fund, IGM, in the sETF table. With this change, only two model portfolios, HSA and RSP, are left to hold more defensive funds.


 

Fund Rankings Update, 10/30/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy FRESX.
Trading signal occurs inETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy IGM.

Major indices took a breather after 4 weeks of strong rally.  Stock price movement during the week were mostly affected by the mixed company earning reports.   For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2079, up 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 0.43%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

As seen in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has gone up more than 200 points from the low of 1875 in five weeks.  The weekly momentum index, STO, stands at 74  and is approaching the overbought area above 80.  As the index breaks above the resistance line for the first time, it will usually comes back down to test it as the resistance level becomes the support level.  If the test is succesfully, the index will then continue to move higher.

Two tradings signals occurred in our model portfolio this week due the strong rally and relief of the holding period. In the SSP model portfolio, the trading signal called for buying real estate fund, FRESX after holding cash position for 60 days.  In the ETF model portfolio, trading signal asks for moving out of cash position and move into technology index fund, IGM.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/23/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EWY.
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy EWY.

Encouraged by European Central Bank's announcement to buy back debt and China's rate cut, stocks continued to head higher for the third week.  Technology sector provided the biggest gain among the industrial sectors as big tech companies, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet (Google), all reported better than expected quarterly earnings.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2075, up 2.07%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.97%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has risen 2% above its 28 moving average with the momentum indicator, STO, above the 50 mark. With these condition, the correction phase since mid August has concluded. The development is about one to two weeks ahead of our prediction. With the index rising so fast, we may see the index consolidate above the moving average or even retest the support in the coming weeks.

 As the general market wen up strong for three weeks, the timing indicators in our ranking tables have switched to a more bullish stance. In the iETF ranking table, Korean index fund has turned green and a trading signal was issued to move out of the cash position and move to EWY.  For FEMKX timing model, we use the momentum indicator, STO, as the timing signal. FEMKX timing model has been on the sideline since the end of May and has turned bullish this week as its STO has risen above 50.  After this week, we still have SSPP, ETF, and sETF model potfolios holding the cash positions either due to holding period threshold or negative AMI. As the market condition improves, we expected these model portfolios to move away from the cash position in as well.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 10/16/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Drops in the consumer price index and weekly jobless claim couple with a rise of consumer sentiment help stocks maintaining their upward momentum following last week's strong gain. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2033, up 0.9%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.77% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 1.16%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 All major indices have rise up to touch their 28 week moving average. In the weekly chart of S&P 500 index, the index has climbed up above the first peak of "W" bottom at 2020 and closed up just a bit above its 28 week moving average. The momentum indicator, STO, has reached 50 from below. If this upward momentum continues for another 2-3 weeks, the correction phase will complete just as we have discussed in the past blogs.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/09/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued marching higher as Alcoa kicked off third quarter earning report season and investors' hope of Fed not raising interest rate this year arised. For the week S&P 500 index closed at 2014, up 3.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.72% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 2.61%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

 S&P 500 index formed a double bottom on its weekly chart and closed in on its 28 week moving average. Weekly Momentum indicator is slowly rising but STO is still below 50. The correction phase should complete in another 3 - 4 weeks and we will see how the index behaves afterwards.

Fund Rankings Update, 10/02/2015

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy Cash.

Stocks opened the week with a sell-off and spent the rest of the week climbing back due to bargain hunting and short covering by investors.  For the week S&P 500 index closed at 1951, up 1.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.97% and Nasdaq composite index ended up higher by increasing 0.75%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 remained in the correction zone trading below its 28 week moving average. A reversal pattern showed up this week indicating that the 1867 low reached five weeks ago may be the bottom of this correction. The index has fallen to this level twice and each time it climbed back and ended up higher. In terms of timing, we still expect the correction to last another four to five weeks such that the volatility subsides and the moving average comes down to 2000 level to meet the index. 

As the correction phase continues, one more model portfolio issue the trading signal to move to side line. This week the AMI of the top rank fund, ITB turned negative and a trading signal was issued to sell ITB and move to Cash.