Fund Rankings Update, 2/16/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rebounded sharply after two weeks of deep dives. Volatility receded but still in an elevated state. Technology sectors together with financial and healthcare outperformed the general markets. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2732, up 4.3%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.25% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 5.31%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index redounded from its 28 week moving average as seen in the weekly chart. Large red candles and white candle indicate the elevated volatility. We expect the volatility to continue for another few weeks before the market resume its direction.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/9/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks plunged more than previous week as sell-off continued and volatility reached record high. DJIA had intraday swing of more than 500 points for six days and fell more than 1000 points on Monday and Thursday.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 27622, down 3.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.12% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.53%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell sharply below its 28-week moving average in two weeks and close right at the trend line around 2600 level. The index has plunged 9% from its record high at 2872 two weeks ago. We expect the high fluctuation will continue for another couple of weeks before stocks settle down to a more normal sustainable path. Our trading systems look for intermediate trend and are not that sensitive to the short term abrupt sell-off. Adherent to the trading plan is the best way forward in these kind of situations.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/2/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IAI

Concern about rising interest rate and profit taking handed stocks the biggest weekly drop since January 2016.  Volatility spiked at multi-month high. On Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 600 points. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 27622, down 3.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.12% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.53%.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 still stay above its 28-week trend line with strong momentum.  The index has gained more than 50 % in the past 2 two years with only minor consolidation back to trend line. The index was progressing in a more sustainable uptrend before it went parabolic in mid November.  With the sound economy backdrop, we do not view this as onset of direction change but a getting back to a more normal growth path.  Several round number levels with various strength are waiting to support the index from below, and 2600 looks to be a likely candidate. 

A trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio this week. Concern about rising interest rate pushes down the Home construction index fund (ITB) out the top seven ranked funds while boosted financial related index fund (IAI) to the number one ranked fund in the sETF momentum ranking table.  We have held ITB for only two months with a loss of 0.9%. We will buy into IAI and see how it performs.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/26/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued their winning streak in the new year boosted by strong company earnings and their positive outlook. All major indices reached their new record high.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2872, up 2.23%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.09% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.31%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/19/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in sELECT model portfolio: Sell FSELX, Buy FSRPX
 Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWY, Buy EZA

 Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks went up for the third week with higher daily volatility driven by company earning reports. Most economists agree that the economic growth will continue with interest rate slowly rising while geopolitical tension, and changes in fiscal and trade policies may disrupt the market this year. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2810, up 0.86%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.04% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.04%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

With strong momentum, S&P 500 index is riding higher and higher as seen in the weekly chart. Sector rotation can also be seen in the SELECT AMI ranking table. Retail and Energy Sectors have gained much momentum in recently weeks while utility sector was left behind. Several trading signals were issued this week due to this sector rotation and market strength.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/12/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

 Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGM, Buy EZA

Stocks continued it winning streak boosted by solid retail sales growth in December.  Initial earning reports from financial institutes also provided confidence to investors. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2786, up 1.57%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.01% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.74%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

The technical strength of S&P 500 index remains the same as last week. The index is riding high with great momentum and increased upward speed. The index (and stock markets) is moving higher in a parabolic fashion and that usually ends up in collapse. We have been turning cautious for a while but still stay in the markets according to our systems. As we've discussed last week, when the inevitable comes, make sure to stick to your trading plan. 

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio this week. The momentum rank of IGM (technology index fund), even it is still moving higher, is pushed out of the ranking threshold by other index funds. We have held IGM for 32 days with a gain of 5.7%. IGM is replaced with South Africa Index Fund, EZA.

Fund Rankings Update, 1/5/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks came out of the gate strong in the new year. Strong economic data pushed all major indices to their new high.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2743, up 2.60%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.33% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.38%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Stocks defied gravity and heading drastically higher right at the start of the new year. Carried by its momentum, S&P 500 index reached another new record high and increased the speed of its upward trajectory.  As we are riding with the stocks on the way up and ripping the benefit, one should remain vigilant. No one has the crystal ball to predict the future. The best we can to is to diligently follow through or trading plan/system.