Fund Rankings Update, 4/6/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Fear of trade war with China started to materialized as US and China traded shots at raising tariffs to each other. Stocks eventually yielded to the rising trade tension and plunged more than 570 points on Friday.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2604, down 1.38%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.71% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.1%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

The STO momentum index of S&P 500 index has been falling for 10 weeks and is reaching the over sold region (below 20). The index has closed below its 28 week moving average for 3 weeks and having trouble to break above the resistance in the past two weeks. The index went up parabolically last November which was not sustainable and we are paying the price right now. The economy and company earnings are still growing which provides the support to prevent this become a more severe down trend. The volatility has subsided a bit even though the index has failed to break above its moving average in the past two weeks. We think  STO momentum index of S&P 500 will fall below the threshold of 20 and enter over sold region, stay there for a few weeks before accumulating enough momentum to climb above 20 again creating a buying opportunity. We will monitor closely the behavior of the index below its 28 week moving average, which will tell us more about the underlying market strength. 

Fund Ranking Updates, 3/30/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks recovered a bit from steep loss in the previous week.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2640, up 2.03%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.42% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.01%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/23/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Investors' fear about a global trade war grew larger after Trump administration's announcement to impose tariff on Chinese import. As a result, stocks plunged sharply.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2588, down 5.95%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.67% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 6.54%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

High volatility usually ends up in sharp decline for stock prices, which can be seen in the recent development in weekly chart of S&P 500 index. The index failed to break the short term resistance at 2800 and closed below its 28 week moving average for the first time in more than a year. The momentum index is heading south and we think S&P 500 index may stay below the support line for a few weeks before volatility can go back to normal. 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/16/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks backed down a bit after sharp rise a week before, while worries about trade war still kept the volatility in an elevated state.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2752, down 1.24%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.54% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.04%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

A short term resistance is forming at 2800 from weekly chart of S&P 500 index. Weekly momentum indicator, STO[15,1], of the index stands at a ho-hum 62 in the weekly chart indicating that the index does not have much fuel to climb higher right now. We may see the index trading between 2800 and the 28 week moving average for the next couple of weeks. 

Fund Rankings Update, 3/9/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Markets rebounded sharply this past week with technology sectors and small cap stocks leading the way.  President Trump's exclusion of Canada and Mexico in his  tariffs increase on steel& aluminum imports, and Friday's stronger than expected job report boosted the positive sentiment on Wall Street.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2786, up 3.54%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.25% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.17%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has formed a unsymmetrical "W" bounce above its 28 week moving average. The high volatility can be seen from the large candles in the past few weeks. It seems that the index will go back to its uptrend with slope similar to the period from April 2017 to August 207 (which roughly equals to 16.45% annual growth rate). Hopefully the volatility subsides and we can have a more robust uptrend.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/2/3018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Market volatility remained in a high gear in the past week. Interest rate fear calmed down a bit while worries about trade friction arose.  President Trump's announcement on raising tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raised fear about a trade war that will hurt global economy and plunged the markets.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2691, down 2.04%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.05% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.08%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went back down to briefly test the 28 week moving average during last week while still closed above the trend line as shown in the weekly chart. As we have discussed last week, the index is forming a W shape pattern. We expect the volatility to remains high and the index will test the trend line again. Hope the support is strong enough in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/23/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.

Market volatility remained in a high state as stocks experienced large daily swing.  Worries about higher interest rate pushed down the stock prices while strong economy fundamental moved the markets up.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2747, up 0.55%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.36% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.35%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index advanced modestly higher after closing at 28 week moving average two weeks ago. For a "W" shape recovery, the index will go back down to test the 28 week moving average at 2640. However, the index appears to go higher judging from its daily action in the past week. We should see if this a "V" shape recovery or "W" shape recovery in the next couple weeks.

As the momentum indicator has fallen below the threshold of 75 due to recent volatility, a sell signal was issued in the FEMKX timing system (detail in "Trading Logs" page) to move to cash position. We have held FEMKX for a month with a loss of 2.4%.