Fund Rankings Update, 12/14/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYH, Buy IDU
Trading signal occurs in sETF model: portfolio: Sell IHF, Buy IDU

Stocks struggled to rebound from the sharp plunge last week. Fear of global economy slowdown weighed in on market sentiments as weak economic data trickled in from China, Germany and France over the week.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2599 down 1.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.18% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.84%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 turned in an impressive reversal candle stick pattern in the daily chart on Monday. The index initially went down 47 points to 2583, but miraculously reversed itself and ended up 7 points higher at 2637.  However, negative sentiment prevailed and pulled the market down for another week. On the bright side, the index closed this week right at the 2600 support level. Hopefully Santa will bring some optimism to the market to reinforce this support level. 

As market down trend continues, two of our model portfolios have changed their holdings to move to even more defensive positions. With  negative average momentum indices (AMIs), ETF and sETF model portfolios have signaled to sell their current holdings and move to utility index fund, IDU.  

This month is when fund companies distribute their year-end dividend and capital gains. These distributions greatly affect the momentum ranking calculation, and I have tried to take them into account as accurately as I can.  However, these data are not publicly available and not accurate even if they are available. Please noted the rankings may have larger error margin during this time.

Fund Rankings Update, 12/7/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks declined sharply as elevated volatility persisted.  Trade dispute with China and concern about economy slowdown dominate the sentiment of investors.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2633 down 4.60%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.5% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.93%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell sharply after the attempt to break above its resistance this past week. The index is clearly in the bear market with trend line sloping downwards as seen in the weekly chart, and the weekly momentum indicator, STO, going back down toward the oversold region. Holding the support at 2620 level is the best we can hopeful for now. Our market outlook has turned negative since beginning of November when the index failed to close above its 28 week moving average. It will remain negative before the index breaking and closing above its resistance. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/30/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Major indices rebounded from their oversold levels encouraged by positive Thanksgiving sales data and Fed chair's comment about interest rate being close to neutral level.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2760 up 4.85%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.16% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 5.64%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Even with the strong rebound from ~2620 supporting level, the S&P 500 index still close below its 28 week moving average as seen in the weekly chart. The weekly momentum indicator has bounced off the threshold of 20 but is still not out of the wood yet. As the trend line is sloping down and the index has not been able to close above the resistance, we expect S&P 500 index to stay below trading between the trend line resistance and the supporting level for another few weeks. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/23/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VVIAX, Buy Cash

Sell-off in technology sectors drag down the markets for another week. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2632 down 3.79%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.44% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.26%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index went down to 2632 near its 2600 support level as shown in the weekly chart. Itse 28 week moving average has changed its up trend to heading downward and the index has closed below the trend line for six weeks. The index needs to find a level to build its base before turning around. 

All the holdings in our model portfolios have moved to defensive funds due to the sell off in the past few weeks. A trading signal in HSA model portfolio was issued this week to move to cash position because every AMI in the HSA ranking table is below 0. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/16/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks fell as trade tension with China came back to focus and oil prices continued to slide lower.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2736 down 1.61%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.22% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.15%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/9/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks rallied after mid-term election as investors cheers for gridlock government. However oil prices continued to slide lower making investors wondered if a global economy slowdown is on the horizon.  For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 27813 up 2.13%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.84% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.68%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has rebounded for two weeks. The index broke above its resistance mid-week but failed to stay there and ended up close the week below its 28 week moving average. With the failed attempt and weak momentum, it is likely that the index may come down to retest its support at 2600 level again. 

Fund Rankings Update, 11/02/2018

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, and  http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Strong company earnings and better than expected job reports help the markets to recover from sharp plunge a week before. US economy added 250,000 jobs in October well above the forecast.  However, the implication of rising wages and labor shortage have made investors worry about the sustainability of economy growth. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2723 up 2.42%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.36% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.65%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index spent another week below its 28 week moving average in the weekly chart. In the daily chart, we can observe that the index went down to a level near March-April low and rebounded to close the week below its 200 day moving average. It is very likely that the index on a daily basis  will test the low at 2600 level again, and a defensive position is a better choice during this market correction phase.