YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 8/16/2019

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy IYR.

An inverted yield curve for a short period of time Wednesday stirred up panic about recession and caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging more than 500 points. However, market recovered a bit by the end of the week with positive July retail sales data from US Commerce Department. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2888 down 1.03%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.53% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.79%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index fell below its 28 week moving average intra-week, reaching the low near 2820 and closed above its trend line for the second weeks. As observed in the weekly chart, S&P 500 index has been trading between 2940 and 2820 for two weeks as we have discussed about the strength of these resistance and support in the blog last week. We think the index will still stay between these two levels for the coming couple of weeks. As long as the index closes above its trend line, the general uptrend is still intact.

After trading signal from FEMKX timing system last week, a trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio to move the position from software sector fund, IGV, to real estate fund, IYR, which has been strong in the past few weeks because of the low interest rate environment. We have held IGV for more than 5 months with a gain of 3.5%.

Fund Rankings Update, 8/9/2019

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks slowed its slide this week as trade friction with China dominated the news. Major indices plunged on Monday as China devalued its currency. Investors were afraid that the trade war may expand to a currency war. Stocks recovered mid-week but fell back on Friday as President Trump told reporter that he is not prepare to make deal with China. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2918 down 0.46%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.75% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.56%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index opened with a gap down and went down to 2822, less than 1% above the 2800 support level we talked about last week, at the beginning of the week. The index rebounded strongly mid-week but failed to break the resistance at 2940 level and closed the week at 2918, still lower than the close of the previous week. The price action showed the strong support at 2800, the resistance at 2940 and the indecision of the market after sharp sell-off the previous week. Falling below 2800, the index will test the next support at 2600, while breaking above 2940, the index is expect to reach record high. We think the index will trade between 2800 and 2940 next week or two before it chooses a direction to go.

Notice that our FEMKX timing system has turn negative with a sell signal issued this week. With the sell signal from FEMKX, we will use more caution and trade defensively in managing our portfolio.

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 8/2/2019

Stocks went sharply lower and recorded the worst weekly loss since the beginning of the year. Investors were spooked mainly by concern about Fed's interest rate policy and US-China trade negotiation. President Trump slapped 10% tariffs on another 300 billion Chinese goods highlighting the tension in US-China trade talk. On Wednesday, Fed lower interest rate by 0.25% as expected but closed the door for further easing for the remainder of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2932 down 3.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.6% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.92%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index plunged lower after Fed's announcement of 0.25% interest rate cut on Wednesday, which validated our earlier view in the blog post on 7/12. As observed in the weekly chart, the index is forming a top and the sizes of the candles have increased in the last 4 weeks signaling higher volatility in the market. The index has fallen below the 2940-2950 support level and we expect to see more downward movement in the coming weeks. The next meaningful support level is around 2800. We will see how the index perform from here on and see if it will get to that level.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/26/2019

Stocks reached another record high on better than expected second quarter GDP and company earnings. US second quarter GDP growth slowed down to 2.1% but 0.1% better than economists' expectation. Company earning growth also slowed to single digit on a yearly basis but stronger than street consensus. These economic data did not change the expectation of a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed's meeting next Wednesday. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3025 up 1.65%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.14% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.26% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index looks to be forming a rounded top and stays 5.4% above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is in the overbought region without sign of decreasing. We do not expect much movement from the index before the Fed meeting as this market has been driven by interest cut expectation. We will have clearer picture of the market direction after Fed's announcement next Thursday.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/19/2019

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IAK
Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42627, Buy FCNTX

Stocks experienced higher volatility as companies started to report 2nd quarter earnings. Economic data during the week showed solid retail sale gain in June as well as better than expected growth in manufacturing activities. These positive economic data dampened investors' hope for Fed's rate cut at the end of July from 0.5% to 0.25 %. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2976 down 1.23%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.65% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.19% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

After breaking the 3000 psychological barrier S&P 500 failed to hold the position and closed down below 3000 at 2976 with the next support level at 2950. The pullback lowers the deviation of the index from its 28 week EMA to 4.1% from 5.7% last week. Notice that the index is currently higher than the peak of 2954 at the end of April, while the momentum indicator STO [15,1] currently at 94.5 is lower than the reading of 98 at that time. This divergence shows the taping off of the advancing momentum. While the index still posses an extreme high momentum and may continue its advance, the divergence is something worth to pay attention to.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/12/2019

Stocks advanced to record high encouraged by the dovish testimony from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell in front of House Financial Service Committee. The possibility of a 0.5% rate cut at the Fed's July 30-31 meeting has been greatly increased by his comment. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 3013 up 0.78%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.52% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.01% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index has broken the psychological barrier of 3000 and reached the record high at 3013. On the daily chart (not shown), the index broke the bull flag pattern (a continuation candle stick pattern) and gapped up to reach the new high. I looks like the index will continue to advance higher on a short term basis. However in the weekly chart, the index is 5.7% above its 28 week exponential moving average. Remember the index was 10%, 4,8% and 5.9 % above its 28 week EMA before the respective sell-off in January 2018, October 2018 and May 2019. This rally is fueled by expectation of a rate cut and we may see a shake up once the rate cut is realized at end of July. The so call " Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" may apply in this case.

Fund Rankings Update, 7/5/2019

Markets closed early Wednesday and the whole Thursday in observation of Independence Day. All the major indices still managed to march higher in spite of the light trading volumes. For the week, S&P 500 index closed at 2990 up 1.65%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.21% and technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 1.94% for the week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

S&P 500 index closed solidly above its previous high and stands at 2990. However, the index is again more than 5% above its 28 week exponential moving average. Caution is needed in the next few weeks.