YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 12/4/2020

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in iETF, Sell EWD, Buy EWY.

Prospect of new economic stimulus package coupled with positive vaccine news for approval and availability pushed all major indices further into record territories. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.67% to 3699, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.03% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.12%.

S&P 500 index broke above the top of flag formation and closed at 3699, one point below the psychological resistance of 3700. As it broke the bull flag pattern, the index looks to go higher in the next few weeks with positive seasonality. However, it is prudent to start reducing the market exposure as the index is 10.1% above its 28 week EMA. Looking back in August and February, S&P 500 index were 13.6% and 7.6% above its 28 week EMA right before the correction respectively. Remember that the index always come back down to its average after extended run. Investors should prepare for the coming corrections/consolidations when the index is more than 6% above its 28 week moving average.

A trading signal occurs in our iETF model portfolio this week. Momentum ranking of our current holding, EWD has been pushed below the number 7 threshold and warrants a position change. EWD (Sweden index fund) will be replaced with the number one ranked fund, EWY (Korea index fund).

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/27/2020

Another positive vaccine news from University of Oxford and AstraZeneca ignited the hope for reopening the economy, and on the political front, uncertainty was removed with General Service Administration started the formal transition of power from Trump to Biden. Stocks advanced higher with Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 30,000 mark the first time in the history. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.27% to 3638, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.21% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.96%.

S&P 500 index consolidated between 3550 to 3650 for another week. The index appears to be forming a bull flag patter on the weekly chart, and the year-end period usually is favorable for stocks to go higher. However, our view remains cautious as the index is 9% above its 28 week EMA.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/20/2020

Positive vaccine effectiveness news from Pfizer and Moderna were offset by concern about the economic impact from local lockdown and restriction across the country due to rising confirmed Codv-19 cases and fatality. Rising weekly jobless claim from 711K to 742K and lower than expected retail sales in October also provide evidence of economic slowdown. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.77% to 3557, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.73% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.22%.

S&P 500 index consolidated around 3600 level for the second week. Our view remains cautious as the current momentum of S&P 500 index is less powerful than it had in the July-September period and the index is abnormally higher above its trendline. The short term support from the weekly chart is at 3500, and the next support level is at the trendline support of 3300. The best scenario is for the index to go side way with reduced volatility between 3500 to 3600 for a while before breaking out on the upside. We have only six weeks left to close the book for 2020. In 20218, S&P 500 index plunged lower before bouncing back during the final few weeks of the year, while last year, it robustly moved higher. It will be interesting to see how the index behaves this time around.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/13/2020

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell MLAIX, Buy CLSPX.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell ITB, Buy IYT.

With the encouraging vaccine effectiveness news announced from Pfizer, stocks went up sharply at the start of the week before settling down with a modest gain. The positive vaccine news boosted the performance of traveling, leisure sectors, and energy sectors as investors rotating out of the "stay-at-home" stocks. rebounded higher this past week amid post-election rally. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.16% to 3585, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.08% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.55%.

S&P 500 broke through the 3500 resistance, climbed above 3600 right out of the gate and closed at 3585. The index is 8.8% above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart more than the 7% last week. In the weekly chart, the momentum indicator, STO, shows a lower high pattern as its momentum is waning while the index is showing a higher high. The divergence between momentum and price movement in addition to the high deviation between the index and its trend line is a sign for caution going forward.

Trading signals were issued in the HSA and sETF model portfolio due to the recent sector rotation. In HSA model portfolio, mid-cap growth fund, CLSPX, took over the large cap fund, MLAIX. We have held MLAIX for 161 days with a profit of 19%. In sETF model portfolio, home construction sector fund, IYB, is replaced with transport index fund, IYT. we have held IYB for 109 days with a profit of 7%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/6/2020

Stocks rebounded higher this past week amid post-election rally. Even though the winner of the election is still yet to be called, investors were encouraged that as no Democrat "blue wave" occurred there will not be dramatic economic and fiscal policy changes from the congress. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 7.32% to 3509, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.87% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 9.01%.

After closed near the strong trend line support at 3200 a week ago, S&P 500 index rebounded strongly back to the 3500 resistance level. The index is again 7% above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart. Going forward, we would like to see the index consolidate around 3500 level to keep the uptrend more robust.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/30/2020

Stocks suffered the worst weekly loss since March as US election is only 4 days away. Resurgent of the corona virus pandemic, uncertainty about the election outcome and the pessimism about the deal for a 3rd stimulus package even after the election. Defensive sectors like utilities held up better in this broad based decline while information technology sectors suffered the most. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 5.64% to 3269, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 6.47% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.51%.

S&P 500 index plunged to 3200 and bounced back up above the 28 week exponential moving average at 3253. The 7% deviation of the index above its 28 week EMA in the weekly chart last week has been reduced to 0.4% this week. Due the the large sell-off, we may see a small rebound next week. It is critical for the index to stay above the 28 week EMA to keep the uptrend intact. Last week, we mentioned that the best scenario is for the index to move side way and wait for the 28 week EMA to catch up. Instead, we got the worst scenario: The index plunged back to 28 week EMA. In the next few weeks, we would like to see the index consolidate above the 28 week EMA similar to what it did in June-July period before taking off. On the downside, the next support level is 3000, if the current strong 3200 support level can not be successfully tested.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/23/2020

Stocks declined modestly this week largely influenced by the negotiation of the third economic stimulus package. 91 companies reported their quarterly earnings during the week with 84% of the companies reported earning so far have beaten the estimates. Companies, like Netflix, and Intel, with disappointing earnings have seen their stock prices punished by investors. Technology sectors underperform the markets this week while internet stocks outperformed. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.53% to 3465, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.95% , while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.06%.

S&P 500 index consolidated around the phycological resistance of 3500 after the run up from 3200 four weeks ago, and looks to be forming a bull flag patter. As November 3 election is approaching, we don't expect much movement in the price action before the election. The best scenario is for the index to consolidate between 3500 and 3400 for another two or 3 weeks such that the 28 week EMA can catch up.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index