YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 1/22/2021

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks advanced to new high mid week on the hope of a larger stimulus package from the new Biden administration. Netflix's surprising strong quarterly earnings also boosted big tech's stock prices. Communication sectors outperformed the market while energy related sectors underperformed due to increase in US's oil inventories. On the economy front, the weekly jobless claim fell down a bit but still at a high level around 900,000, while the January manufacturing activities surprised economist on the upside. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.94% to 3841, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.59%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.19%.

S&P 500 continued its upward advance within the tight trading channel that we mentioned last week. The index is well above its 28 week moving average with strong momentum. The march will continue until the index falls below the tight trading channel.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/15/2021

Political tension weighed on investors' sentiment this week while incoming President Biden unveiled his ambitious 1.9 Trillion stimulus package for Codv-19 relief. Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, more than expected, and the jobless claims jumped to 965K, the highest since August. Earning season also started on Friday with banking sector reported Q4 earnings first. Consensus estimates see the quarterly earnings of S&P 500 companies to decline 6.8% on a year to year basis. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.48% to 3768, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.91%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.54%.

S&P 500 fell back below 3800 and tested the short term support at 3750. As long as the 3750 support holds, the index has a good change to break 3800 and heads toward 3900 in the near term. If the index fails to stay above 3750, the next support level is 3600 - 3650. The index has been trending up in a tight trading channel since November as seen in the weekly chart below. The chart pattern is very similar to what had happened in the late 2019. S&P 500 index was in a tight trading range for three months from October 2019 to the end of 2019. The index started to experience higher volatility in January 2020 and plunged in late February. Our cautious outlook of the market stays the same. While we see the index goes higher in the short term because of its high momentum and strong short term supports, the risk levels increase as the index marching higher.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/8/2021

Major indices continued their upward advance, reaching another all time high this week. Investors look past the civil unrest encouraged by the outgoing president Trump and anticipate the next round of fiscal stimulus and the spending plan on infrastructure, new energies, and health care under incoming President Biden and Democrat controlled House and Senate. Small caps and value stocks outperformed large caps and growth stocks. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.83% to 3824, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.61% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.43%.

After breaking the resistance at 3700, S&P 500 quickly advanced above 3800 without hesitation. The index is 10.1% above its 28 week EMA. With the extreme high momentum, the index will climb higher as we have predicted but the risk level is getting higher and higher. It is prudent to review and balance the portfolio allocation to reduce the risk exposure.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/1/2021

Happy New Year! Major indices reached all time high in this holiday shorten week to close the year 2020. Investors' sentiment were boosted by President Trump's signing of stimulus bill after reluctance for a few days. The surprised decline in weekly jobless claim also helped the market advance further. Health care sectors outperformed the market while big tech companies, which were strong the previous week, lost its momentum. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.43% to 3756, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.35% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.65%.

S&P 500 broke and solidly closed above 3700 after four weeks of tight range consolidation. The index is 9% above its 28 week EMA. It seems that the index is heading toward 3800 or even 3900 in the short term before its inevitable correction.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/25/2020

News about new variant of Codv-19 virus identified in England pushed down investors sentiment while the passage of stimulus bill pulled up the stock markets. Stocks ends up almost flat with big Tech and small cap leading the way in this holiday shorted trading week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.17% to 3703, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.38%.

S&P 500 hovered around 3700 for the fourth week and stays 8.2% above its 28 week EMA. Its momentum indicator is in the extreme overbought region and showing sign of slow down. It is possible that the index will push a bit higher before the correction to the trend line.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/18/2020

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy NSVAX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy ILF

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYT, Buy IEZ

Signs of progress in congress to reach an agreement on stimulus bill and rollout of Codv-19 vaccine pushed the major indices to record high while discouraging economy data in unemployment and retail sales indicated the slow down of economy recovery by the second wave of the pandemic. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.25% to 3709, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.44% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.05%.

S&P 500 index finally closed above the psychological barrier of 3700, and stays 9% above its 28 week EMA. Our market outlook stays the same: The index will likely marching higher into early next year due to positive seasonality but caution is warranted as it is too far away from its trendline.

Three trading signals occur in our model portfolios this week due to the recent surge in small cap stocks and energy sectors. So far this year, our SSPP, SELECT, FEMKX, and RSP model portfolios have handily beaten the 14.8% of S&P 500 index. Wish everyone a Happy Holiday and looking forward to another profitable year next year!

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/11/2020

News on imminent vaccine approval from FDA was out-shadowed by the uncertainty of stimulus bill from congress. Weekly jobless claims jumped from 720k to 850k due to the recent wave of infection also weighed in on investor sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.96% to 3663, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.57% , and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.69%.

S&P 500 index closed below 3700 for the second week and stays 8.3% above its 28 week moving average. Its momentum indicator is still heading higher in the overbought region due to positive seasonality effect. Our cautious outlook remains the same as index is marching higher.

Mutual funds and ETF funds started to distribute year-end capital gains and dividends. In some cases, they even split the fund prices to attract more investors. These information are difficult to obtain and process ahead of the time for momentum ranking calculation. Please keep in mind that with these large fund prices adjustments, the rankings in the momentum ranking tables won't be very reliable in December.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index