YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 10/14/2022

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks were mostly lower as volatility continued with the third quarter earnings report season started and worries from persistent high inflation data released during the week. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.55% to 3583, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 3.11%.

S&P 500 index fell to 3491 Thursday and staged a strong comeback surging 5.5 % to closed the day at 3670. However, with the current weak market sentiment, the index could not hold its gain and closed at 3583 the next day after giving back most of its advance. From the weekly chart below, S&P 500 index is still trying to hold on to its support around 3600, which is a difficult task under such extreme negative sentiment and momentum. For the tide to turn, we need to see the inflation coming down and the Fed slowing down its pace to hike the interest rate.

Weekly chart of S$P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 10/7/2022

Stocks started the week with a strong 2 day rebound from its 3600 support, but the rally faded after OPEC+ announcing production cut of 2 million barrel oil a day on Wednesday. The announcement coupled with the positive job report on Friday caused the index to give up most of its gain as investors worried that the economy is not slow enough to bring the inflation down. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.51% to 3639, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.99%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased only 0.73%.

S&P 500 index rebounded strongly from its 3600 support to the high of 3800 in the first two days of the week, however, the selling pressure and negative sentiment weighed in and the index closed at 3639 only a tad above the support level. The index is well below its 28 week exponential moving average and its momentum indicator is at an extremely oversold level. As discussed previously, the index very likely will fall to 3200 level if it can not hold the 3600 level with such low momentum.

Weekly Chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/30/2022

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FIUIX, Buy FDRXX.

Stocks declined again for the third week as economic data showing continuous inflationary pressure despite Fed's interest rate hikes. Weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since April while the ccore (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 4.7% well above the expected 4.4%. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.91% to 3585, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.92%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.69%.

S&P 500 index fell below its previous low of 3636 and closed the week below the 3600 support level as we have discussed last week. Looking down, the next support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 3500 which is close to where we are now, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 3200. To get a rebound or trend reversal, we need to see inflation receding and Fed slowing the pace of its interest rate hike, which may take a longer time than investors' expectation though.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/23/2022

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CLSPX, Buy Cash.
Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash.
Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IDU.

Stocks declined sharply again after Federal Reserve raised the interest rate another 0.75% on Wednesday, brining the FED fund rate to 3.0% - 3.25%. This is the third 0.75% rate hike and fear of recession due to FED's hawkish interest rate policy weighed on investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.65% to 3693, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.0%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.07%.

S&P 500 index reached the 3600 supporting level after declining sharply for two weeks. Even though the index still closed above the previous low of 3636, a rebound next week does not look to be likely with its deteriorating momentum. Support on the downside are 3200 and 3000 if the index can not hold the 3600 support. As this bearish trend was induced by interest rate hikes, we expect the reversal will only come when the FED slows the pace of the hikes or reaches its targeted rate range of 4.0% - 4.5%.

With the current extreme bearish sentiment, three trading signals were issued in our model portfolios this week. HSA, FEMKX and ETF model portfolios will sell their current holdings and move either to cash or defensive utility index fund.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/16/2022

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IBB, Buy IEO.

Stocks declined sharply after August consumer price index ticked higher with core CPI jumped to 6.3% instead of the expected 6.1%. Investors were spooked by the higher inflation data and feared of the aggressive FED policy that will lead to a global recession. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.77% to 3873, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.13%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 5.48%.

As observed from weekly chart below, S&P 500 index briefly reached the 28 week EMA and retreated sharply to close below the low of last week with a big red candle. Its momentum indicator also declined sharply from above 50 last week to close the week at 34, well below the mid point. As its momentum is deteriorating, we expect the index to stay below the trendline for another few weeks. On the down side, there is a support at 3600 while on the upside, the trendline resistance at 4100.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/9/2022

Stocks rebounded sharply after three weeks of relentless selling induced by FED chair, Jerome Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Holes symposium. Stocks rallied Wednesday as FED's “Beige Book” showing moderation of price increase. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 3.65% to 4067, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.66%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.14%.

S&P 500 rebounded from its 3900 short term support with its momentum indicator STO [15,1] climbing above 50. For the index to gain back its upward momentum, it has to break the following three resistance levels: The 28 week EMA trend line resistance at 4128, the stronger midterm resistance at 4200 and the resistance from the previous high at 4325. If the index can successfully reach these targets, we will have a highs lows and higher highs pattern to confirm the bullish trend.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 9/2/2022

Stocks declined sharply for the second week as worries about FED's hawkish monetary policy continues. On the economy front, data showed US added a solid 315,000 jobs in August above the expectation of 300,000. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 3.29% to 3924, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.99%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 4.21%.

S&P 500 index went down substantially for the past three weeks as observed by the 3 long read bearish candles in the weekly chart below. Its momentum indicator, once climbed above 80, has retreated quickly and heading below 50. If the index can not hold at the current 3900 support, it will very likely go down to test the previous low of 3600 as we have discussed last week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index