YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 3/10/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio, Sell 05087, buy 42626

Stocks fell sharply this week as negative sentiment prevailed from the beginning of the week. On Tuesday, Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, commented that with the current inflation trajectory, Fed may increase the pace of rate hikes and the terminal rate may be higher than expected. Friday's better than expected job data also spooked investors that the inflationary pressure has failed to be reduced so far. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 4.55% to 3861, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 4.44%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index decreased 4.71%.

After bouncing back above its 28 week EMA last week, S&P 500 index fell solidly below its trend line. A weaker support of 3600 is waiting nearby and a stronger support of 3400 is not far away either.

A trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio this week due to the recent weakness in US equity market. We will sell the holding in LSV large cap value fund (05087) and replace it with the current number one rank fund, State Street World Development Index fund (42626), in the RSP ranking table.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 3/3/2023

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, buy Cash

Stocks regained some ground from the sharp losses a week ago. Economic data released during the week were mixed as January manufacturer durable goods order fell 4.5% but the new home sales saw it jump 8.1% in January. Investors sentiment were bolstered by Atlanta Federal Reserve President's remark that Fed could pause the rate hike by mid to late summer. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.9% to 4045, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.75%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index increased 2.58%.

S&P 500 index bounced right back above its 28 week EMA indicating a continuation of the rally going forward. We will watch the market closely next week to see if the index can keep its momentum up and continue to stay above its trend line.

The whiplash of the stock price action has caused the momentum indicator of FEMKX to dipped below 50 and closed at 63.41 this week. Even though it bounced back above its trendline, a sell signal was issued according to the trading rule. We will move out of FEMKX and move into Cash for at least one month.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Weekly chart of FEMKX

Fund Rankings Update, 2/24/2023

Stocks closed sharply lower this week as investors were spooked by the higher than expected core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index which jumped 0.6% in January. The resurgent of inflation led investors to raise the timing and extent of the coming rate hikes from Federal Reserve. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.67% to 3970, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.99%, while the technology laden NASDA composite index decreased 3.33%.

S&P 500 index closed a bit below its 28 week EMA with diminished momentum. If the index can not quickly bounce back above the support next week, we may see it retreated to retest its low of 3600.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/17/2023

Stocks closed mixed this week as investors were surprised by the big jump in January produce price index, which offset the positive sentiment from strong retail sales and company earnings. Investors worried that the 0.7% jump in January produce price index may force the Fed to pickup the pace of interest rate hikes again. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.28% to 4079, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13%, while the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.59%.

S&P 500 index continues to consolidate in a tight range above its 28 week EMA. Again, as long as the index stays above its 28 week EMA, we expect the uptrend to continue.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/10/2023

Stocks took a breather as major indices closed down. Energy sectors outperformed the general market while communication sectors lagged behind. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.11% to 4090, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.17%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.41%.

S&P 500 index consolidated to digest the recent quick gains as we have discussed in last week's blog. The index is still above its 28 week exponential moving average (EMA) with high momentum. As long as the index stays above its 28 week EMA, we expect the uptrend to continue.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rakings Update, 2/3/2023

Stocks rallied for another week but major indices closed mixed. S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite index closed with solid gains while narrowed Dow Jones Industrial Average index lagged the rest and showed a 0.15% loss. Investors were encouraged by Fed's 0.25% interest rate hike and its acknowledgment of slowdown in inflation. Better-than-expected earnings from Facebook, GM, UPS also boosted investors' sentiment. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.62% to 4136, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.15%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.31%.

S&P 500 index climbed higher reaching 4195 on Thursday, quickly retreated and ended up above its previous-high resistance (now the support) of 4100. The index has formed a higher high and higher low patter on the weekly chart indicating an onset of a bull trend. We expect that the index will go higher with the next resistance at 4325. However, with the index rising so fast, we may see some consolidation before it goes higher

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/27/2023

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash Buy FEMKX

Stocks marched higher as tamed inflation data and positive annual GDP gave hope for soft landing to investors. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 4.4% year over year which is at the slowest pace in over a year and the US Commerce Department released the GDP data that showed U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% than the 2.6% expected. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.47% to 4070, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 4.32%.

S&P 500 index broke the 4000 psychological resistance while retreated at the 4100 previous high resistance. The technical picture of S&P 500 index remains the same: As the index is gaining momentum shown in the weekly chart below, it is likely that the index will climb higher above its previous high resistance of 4100 in the next few weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index