YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 6/30/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted in "Rankings", "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks continued their advance after a short consolidation the week before. Small-cap and value stocks inverted their roles this week outperforming the growth and large-cap stocks. Inflation data released Friday showed a downside surprise giving investors a boost in sentiment. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.1% in May bringing the year-over-year increase down to 3.8%, the lowest level since April 2021. On the economic growth side, the first quarter GDP was revised upward to 2.0% from the previously estimated 1.3% showing the resilience of the economy and lessening the worries about the prospect of a recession in the second half of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.35% to 4450, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.02%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.19%.

S&P 500 looked to be forming a flag pattern and trading between 4300 to 4450 in the last three weeks. Once the top of the channel is broken, the next resistance levels are the 2022 March high of 4600, and the 4800 all-time high. We expect the index to continue heading higher after completing the flag pattern in the next couple of weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/23/2023

Major indices took a breather after five weeks of advance this week. Growth and large cap stocks outperformed the value and small cap stocks. Investors turned their focus back to interest rate hikes as Fed chair, Jerome Powell stated that there are hikes coming by the end of year to fight the stubborn inflation during his testimony before congress Wednesday. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.39% to 4348, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.67%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.44%.

S&P 500 made a healthy consolidation this week. It has come down from last week's 7% to this week's 5.3% above its 28 Week EMA. The uptrend is still intact as long as the index stays above its 28 week EMA. The momentum indicator of the index has come down a bit but is still in over bought region. We expect the index to continue heading higher after completing consolidation in the next couple weeks.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/16/2023

Trading Signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell 42626, Buy FDGRX

Major indices continued its advance with Fed's announcement to skip the interest rate hike on Wednesday. Tamed inflation data released over the week also boded well for investment sentiment. Consumer price index increased 4.0% year over year in May which is much lower than the 4.9% in April, and the produce price index has declined 0.3% in May making it the fourth decline in the last 6 months. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.58% to 4409, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.25%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.25%.

S&P 500 has broken its 4300 resistance and closed solidly at 4409 this week. As the index is gaining momentum, we may see it reach the 4500-4600 level in the next couple weeks. However, the index, after five weeks of nonstop advance, is currently 7% above its 28 week EMA, and the odd of a pullback or consolidation is getting higher.

As growth stocks have come back into fashion and gaining momentum, a trading signal was issued in our RSP model portfolio this week to move portfolio holding from 42626 (SS WRLD DEV EXUS IDX) to FDGRX (FID GR CO POOL CL 3). The portfolio has held 42626 for 98 days with a gain of 7.46%.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/9/2023

Major indices closed modestly higher as investors waiting for Fed's rate announcement next Wednesday. US weekly jobless claims went up to 261,000, higher than expected. Data released Tuesday also showed the contraction in service sector and decline in service price, which bolster the expectation that Fed will skip the rate hike in the upcoming meeting. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.39% to 4298, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.34%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 0.14%.

S&P 500 continued its uptrend and closed 2 points below its 4300 psychological resistance. Our technical outlook stay the same as last week: The index may see some consolidation or small pull back here but with the high momentum, it is well on its way towards the next resistance level at 4500-4530.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/2/2023

Major indices advanced solidly higher after debt ceiling agreement was reached, cleared huddles in both houses of congress and signed by Present Biden into law to avoid US default three days before deadline. On the economy front, non-farm payroll report released Friday showed that employers added 390K jobs in May, well above expectation while the unemployment rate also went up to 3.7% above the expected 3.4%. Investors interpreted favorably that the labor market is cooling which is good for the Fed to contain inflation while the economy is still strong enough and will more likely get into a soft landing rather than a recession later in the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.83% to 4282, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.02%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.04%.

S&P 500 jumped higher after closed above 4200 last week. With the index closing above the resistance level two weeks in a row, we can confirm the continuation of the uptrend since October, 2022. The index is currently near a 4280 - 4300 resistance level and may see some consolidation or small pull back. However, with the high momentum, we expect the index to break above the 4300 resistance and continue towards the next resistance level at 4500-4530.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/26/2023

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio, Sell RIGGX, Buy PCRIX

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio, Sell IEV, Buy IYW

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio, Sell EWI, Buy EWW

Major indices closed mixed as US debt ceiling negotiation between Biden administration and Republican congress leaders has not produced an agreement with June 5 deadline approaching fast. Technology sectors again outperformed the general markets with NVIDIA shares jump 24% due to surging AI chip demands . Investors focused more on Debt ceiling negotiation than potential interest rate hikes this week. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, went up a bit above expectation in April with year over year stood at 4.7%, which makes Fed more likely to raise interest rate again in June. However, the news failed to make a dent in traders positive sentiments. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.32% to 4205, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.0%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.51%.

S&P 500 index finally closed above 4200 resistance level after a few weeks of preparation. We will see if the index can stay above 4200 for another week to keep this rally going. As investment sentiment has turned more positive and investors are willing to take on more risk, growth stocks have come back in style. Three trading signals were issued in our model portfolios this week to replace their current holdings with the current number one funds in their respective ranking tables.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/19/2023

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio, Sell FIEUX, Buy FDGRX

Major indices advanced higher with solid gains as progress was made in US debt negotiation between Biden administration and Republican congress leaders but the positive sentiment was dampen a bit by a pause on Friday. Technology sectors outperformed the general markets while defensive health care, and utility sectors lagged. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.29% to 4191, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.38%, and the technology laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.04%.

S&P 500 index broke 4200 resistance intra week and closed a bit lower at 4191. This up trend since the low of last October has been led by Technology sectors as they rebounded from the severe loss due to interest hikes. Among the major index, Dow Jones Industrial Average has only gone up 0.8% since the start of the year, while S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite indices have gone up 9.2% and 20.9% respectively. For the uptrend to continue, we would need the index to close above 4200, and hopefully we can see that next week.

Weekly chart of S&P 500 index