YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 8/18/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Stocks closed the week broadly lower as positive economic news pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since last October. Retail sales with a significant increase in discretionary spending jumped 0.7% in July, two times higher than the expectation, and Industrial production in July also went up 1%, tripling the consensus estimate. Investors worry that the overheating growth of the economy will force FED to hike the interest rate further to slow it down and keep inflation in check. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.11% to 4369 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.21%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.59%.

S&P 500 index continued its pullback for the third week. The last time S&P 500 index went continuing down for 3 weeks was in February. At that time, the index bounced off the 28-week EMA the next week followed by an impulsive selling and a recovery to continue the bull run. The momentum indicator STO[15,1] went down from 50 to 20 after the impulsive selling and bounced right back paving the way for the 5-month-long uptrend from March to July. The index is now 2% above its trend line support and the STO[15,1] is similarly at 53, we will see if the history will repeat itself this time.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/11/2023

Major indices closed the week mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Index managing a gain while S&P 500 index and NASDAQ composite index suffered a loss. Investors were puzzled by the conflicting inflation data released on Thursday and Friday: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July went up 0.2 % a tick below the expectation but the Producer Price Index (PPI) in July went up 0.3% a tick above the expectation. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 0.31% to 4464 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.62%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 1.9%.

S&P 500 index continued to head towards its 28-week exponential moving average which stood at 4270 this week. The index is 4.5% above its 28-week, bringing it within a more reasonable range. The momentum indicator, STO[15,1], has come down from the overbought and quickly heading downward. Our expectation is that the pullback will continue but the overall uptrend is still intact. An up-trend with digestion and pullback along the way to build support levels is a lot better than a non-stop rise and sharp plunge at the end.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 8/4/2023

Trading Signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks started the August trading sessions with weak performance due to rising treasury yield and unexpected downgrade of US crediting rating from Fitch Ratings. Economic data released during the week showed the slowdown in labor market and lower manufacturing activities: Nonfarm payroll increased 187000 in July well below the first five month average of 287000. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at 46.4 in July below the 46.9 consensus number. PMI below 50 indicates the contraction in manufacturing activities. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 2.27% to 4478 Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.11%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 2.85%.

A bearish engulfing candle stick pattern shows up in the weekly chart this week. The body of the white candle last week is contained within the larger red candle this week. This bearish engulfing pattern signals the upcoming correction. The index was 8% above its 28-week EMA last week, and will very likely head down to meet the EMA in the next few weeks. The first support from the chart is at 4300 and the next support is at 4200. The bull run will survive if the index can hold above its 28-Week EMA around 4300.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/28/2023

Stocks closed up broadly after FED hiked the interest rate by 0.25% as expected on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed will pause the rate hike after the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased only 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. In addition, the soft landing scenario is looking firmer with the economic data released during the week: The second quarter GDP showed the US economy growing 2.4% much higher than the expected 1.8%, The durable goods orders increased by 4.7%, and the personal spending also rose by 0.5% in June. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 1.01% to 4582 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 2.02%.

The positive technical structure of the S&P 500 index stays the same as last week. The index is 8% above its 28-week EMA with the STO [15,1] momentum indicator in the overbought region. We expect the index to reach an all-time high with some consolidations along the way to bring it closer to the 28-week EMA.

The Weekly Chart of The S&P 500 Index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/21/2023

Stocks closed mixed with Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for the past ten days while NASDAQ composite index yielded a modest pullback. Economic data released during the week showed the cooling economy and strong labor market. Investors widely expect a 0.25% rate hike in the Fed policy meeting next week and pause for the rest of the year. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 0.69% to 4536 Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.08%, while the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.57%.

S&P 500 continued to march higher and currently stands at 4536, 7.7% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The uptrend for S&P 500 index is still intact and we expect it to reach an all-time high. However, as the index is outside the normal deviation from its 28-week EMA, we will see some digestions along the way.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/14/2023

Stocks advanced broadly higher as the consumer price index released Wednesday rose 0.2% in June below the expectation. The softer inflation data gave investor hope that the Fed will slow down its rate hike or pause the rate hike after July. Investment sentiment was boosted also by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released Friday, which went up above expectation to 72.6 reaching the highest level in 2 years. For the week, S&P 500 index went up 2.42% to 4505, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.29%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index increased 3.32%.

S&P 500 broke above the 4300-4450 trading range this week and closed comfortably at 4505. Slowly and steadily the index is heading towards the previous high of 4800 level.

The Weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/7/2023

Stocks took a breather in this holiday-shorten week. The market opened for only half a day on Monday and closed the whole day for Tuesday's Fourth of July holiday. Investors' sentiment was weighed on by minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting released on Wednesday, which indicated that the Fed sees more rate hikes coming at a slower pace. However, cooler labor data released on Friday showing the US added 209000 non-farm jobs in June modestly below expectation provided some comfort to investors. For the week, S&P 500 index went down 1.16% to 4398, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.96%, and the technology-laden NASDAQ composite index decreased 0.92%.

S&P 500 continued to form the flag pattern trading between 4300 and 4450 we discussed last week. As the index is well above its trend line with great momentum, our positive expectation stays the same: The index will reach the previous all-time high of 4800 level once the top of the channel is broken.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index