YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 12/15/2023

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IAK, Buy ITB

Bullish sentiment propelled stocks higher this week, fueled by anticipation of rate cuts next year. The Fed's hint at three rate cuts in 2024, coupled with unexpectedly strong November retail data, painted a picture of a resilient economy and a potential soft landing. The S&P 500 soared 2.49%, Dow Jones climbed 2.92% and Nasdaq advanced 2.89%.

After three weeks of hovering near 4600, the S&P 500 finally punched through, closing above 4700 on a surge of momentum. This strong run has fueled speculation that the all-time high of 4818 might be within grasp by year-end. However, a word of caution: at 7.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average, the index is stretching beyond its typical 5-6% range. While further gains are possible, this parabolic move suggests proceeding with prudence.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/8/2023

Stocks closed flat to mildly higher this week, buoyed by unexpectedly positive economic data. Friday's jobs report revealed the US added 199,000 jobs in November, significantly exceeding expectations of 180,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7% from 3.9% in October, further highlighting the economy's strength. Consumer sentiment also surged, with the University of Michigan's preliminary December gauge jumping to 69.4, exceeding expectations of 62.4, likely fueled by easing inflation concerns. These positive developments contributed to modest weekly gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.21% to 4604, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.01%, and the Nasdaq composite advancing 0.69%.

The S&P 500 index moved sideways to let its 28-week exponential moving average catch us as shown in the weekly chart below. It has reached and closed above the 4600 resistance level with strong momentum. As discussed in the previous blog, we expect the index to resume its upward trajectory after this short-term consolidation.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 12/1/2023

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYE, Buy IGV.

Stocks moved higher this week as falling treasury yields boosted investor sentiments. Economy data showed the inflation is subsiding and the economy is slowing down. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.2% in October, a slowdown from September. Weekly jobless claims ticked down, but continuing claims jumped much more than expected to 1.93 million, their highest level since November 2021. For the week, the S&P 500 index climbed 0.77% to 4594, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.42%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 0.38%.

The S&P 500 index maintained its upward momentum, inching closer to the 4600 resistance level, which is currently just six points away. Over the next few weeks, we anticipate a period of sideways consolidation, with a positive bias.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/24/2023

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell PCRIX, Buy MLAIX.

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell Cash, Buy EWZ.

Stocks rose in this holiday-shorten week with growth stocks leading the way. Economic data pointed to a slowing economy. Durable goods orders dropped 5.4% in October and companies shed jobs for the first time since 2020 according to an S&P Global survey. As signs of slowing economic growth appear and inflation fear subsides, treasury bond yields have retreated from their highs, boosting stock prices. For the week, the S&P 500 index climbed 1.0% to 4559, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.27%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 0.89%.

The S&P 500 index maintains its upward trajectory, aiming to break through the 4600 resistance level next week. Historical trends suggest that the index could experience a sideways consolidation period for the next two weeks before resuming its ascent toward all-time highs.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/17/2023

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSENX, Buy FSPCX.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing model: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks closed broadly higher as the October consumer price index released Tuesday came in lower than expected. Economic data not only showed the moderation of inflation but also the resilience of the economy. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales in October fell 0.1%, better than expected. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 2.24% to 4514, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.94%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 2.37%.

The S&P 500 index continued to march higher surpassing its first resistance at 4500 as we mentioned in the previous blog. The index's momentum indicator has also soared above the overbought threshold of 80. Given the strong momentum, we anticipate that the index will soon surpass its previous swing high and regain its record high of 4800.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/10/2023

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IEZ, Buy IAK.

Stocks continued their upward trajectory last week as some tech companies provided positive earnings surprises in the final week of the third quarter earning report season. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 1.31% to 4415, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 2.37%.

The S&P 500 index continued to ascend last week, successfully completing the two steps necessary to confirm the resumption of the up-trend as discussed in our previous blog post. Firstly, it surpassed its 28-week exponential moving average, and secondly, it closed above the previous swing high of 4,394 to break the downward market structure. Overall, the S&P 500 index maintains a positive outlook. As illustrated in the weekly chart below, the next resistance stands at 4500. If it can decisively break above this level, it could potentially reach its all-time high of 4,600 level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 11/3/2023

Stock markets surged broadly this week after the Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday and Treasury yields fell from 5% to 4.48%. The US economy added 150,000 jobs in October, below expectations, and the August and September data were revised down, indicating a cooling labor market. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 5.85% to 4358, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 5.07%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index increased by 6.61%.

The S&P 500 index rallied for five consecutive days to start November strong, closing 1.2% above its 28-week exponential moving average. The momentum indicator, STO[15,1], rebounded sharply and crossed back above the 50 midpoint. To confirm the resumption of the uptrend, the index needs to complete two steps: first, close above the 28-week EMA trend line (which it has already done), and second, break the downward lower-highs, lower-lows market structure by closing above the 4394 level (the last swing high) to make a higher-high. It will be interesting to see if the index can accomplish the second step next week.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index