YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 5/31/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in the sETF model portfolio: Sell IEO, Buy IDU.

US stocks closed lower this week with technology shares leading the way down. Economic data released during the week signals a benign economic environment. The core PCE index, Fed's favorite inflation gauge, went down 0.2% and the unemployment claims came in with 219000, in line with expectation. Despite these positive economic data, all major indexes still finished in the red. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 5277, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.98%, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 1.1%.

A divergence between the S&P 500 index and its momentum indicator has occurred in the weekly chart. The index has made a higher high in the weekly chart while its momentum indicator has made a lower high. This suggests that the recent rally may have run out of steam, and we may see a consolidation period ahead. The index has hovered around the 5300 level for the past 3 weeks after reaching the record high. It remains to be seen whether the index will continue its upward trend or experience a pullback from here.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/24/2024

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX.

Stocks closed mixed for the week with the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite index making another all-time high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered the worst setback since April. The focus and the major driving factor of the tech stocks is the quarterly earning report from AI-giant NVIDIA on Wednesday after the market close. NVIDIA stock went up more than 9% after reporting a 262% increase in quarterly revenue and a 629% increase in quarterly earnings over last year, handsomely beating Wall Street's expectations. The boost from NVIDIA did not translate into broader markets as economic data showed the economic growth rebound in May which raised the speculation for the Fed to wait longer before cutting the interest rate. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.03% to 5304, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.33% and the Nasdaq composite index advanced 1.41%.

The S&P 500 index closed the week before the long weekend almost flat indicating that it is searching for a direction at this record high junction. We think the index will continue to march higher as the index is 6.6% above its 28-week EMA, within the historical norm, and its momentum indicator is high in the overbought region. The next levels ahead are the 5340, and 5500 from the Fibonacci analysis.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/17/2024

Stocks advanced for the fourth week with the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq, all reaching record highs. The major factor boosting investors' sentiment was the April CPI index released on Wednesday. The CPI index came in lower than expected contrary to the higher-than-expectation PPI index released a day before. The core CPI in April rose 0.3% in line with the expectation while headline CPI rose the same 03% a tick below the expectation. The moderation of the inflation pressure lowered the treasury yields and propped up the major stock prices to all-time highs. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.54% to 5303, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, breaking the 40000 psychological barrier, increased 1,24% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 2.11%.

As discussed, the S&P 500 index broke the previous high of 5262 without hesitation which signaled the continuation of the bull trend. The index is now in uncharted territory, with each new high being an all-time record making it difficult to predict where the top will be. Using Fibonacci analysis, the potential resistance levels were identified at 5340, 5500, and 5650. Only time will tell how high the index will climb.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/10/2024

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell VFTAX, Buy CSMUX

Stocks advanced for the third week with light trading volume as Wednesday's market saw the third lightest trading volume day of the year. Economic calendars were not as busy either with only initial jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Higher initial jobless claims and lower consumer sentiment all pointed to a slow economy and softer labor markets. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 1.85% to 5222, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.16% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.14%.

With the strong advance, the S&P 500 index is closing in on its all-time high of 5265. Next week is critical in determining the index's direction: A decisive move above the 5265 and holding there would signal the continuation of the up-trend while a rejection at 5265 could create a double-top bearish formation on the weekly chart.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 5/3/2024

Stocks nudged upward for the second week under a slew of economy data and company earning reports. The positive reception to Apple's earning report on Thursday and the less-than-expected nonfarm payroll data on Friday morning boosted investor sentiments. The slowdown in the labor market and the monthly wage increase lessened the investors' worries about the inflation pressure. For the week, the S&P 500 went up 0.55% to 5127, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.14% and the Nasdaq composite index jumped 1.43%.

The S&P 500 index started the week on the weak side falling below its 50-day exponential moving average but crawled back above the EMA and ended up a bit higher than its opening price to close the week. The price action formed a hammer candle pattern on the weekly chart which is deemed to be bullish. However, The momentum indicator STO[15,1] of the index sits at 67.43, nestled between the overbought and oversold thresholds suggesting a sideway consolidation may be in store for the next few weeks. May is traditionally a weak month for stock markets as the adage, "Sell in May and go away" goes. It remains to be seen if this adage holds true for the S&P 500 this year.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/26/2024

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio, Sell ITB, Buy IEO

Stocks recovered some of the loss ground after three weeks of selloff as investors responded to the positive company earning reports and the buying opportunities created by the recent slump in tech shares. Economy data released later in the week also boosted investors' sentiments. On Thursday, The Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% well below the estimated 2.5%, and on Friday it released the core personal consumption expenditures (core PCE) index of 2.82% month over month in March showing inflation continued its downward trajectory since October last year. For the week, the S&P 500 jumped 2.67% to 5099, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up 0.67% and the Nasdaq composite index rebounded 4.23%.

The S&P 500 index rebounded sharply this week, climbing back above the key psychological level of 5,000. However, momentum indicators are now falling below the overbought threshold of 80, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation period. We're closely watching the 4800 level, which remains critical support based on our previous analysis. The index's behavior around this level will be a key indicator of its near-term direction.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 4/19/2024

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system, Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Stocks pulled back for the third week as tension in the Middle East and concerns of a higher and longer interest environment continued to weigh in on investors' sentiments. On Monday, The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in March went up 0.7% much higher than the expected 0.3%, which increased investors' worries about the Fed putting off the interest rate cut further out of the year. And nn Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated at an economic conference that it will take longer than expected to achieve that confidence to tame the inflation. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 3.05% to 4967, the Dow Jones Industrial Average nudged up 0.01% and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.52%.

The S&P 500 index has declined for three weeks in a row, with a sharp pullback this week that brought it under the key psychological level of 5,000. The gap between the index and its 28-week exponential moving average has narrowed significantly, going from 9.6% three weeks ago to a modest 2.0%. 4800 will be a critical support level below for the index as it is near trendline support, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and the previous high in January 2022. The behavior of the index at this level will tell us if this is a buying opportunity or the start of a longer downturn.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index