YCP ETF and Mutual Fund Rankings

Fund Rankings Update, 7/19/2024

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages, as well as in http://ycprankings.awardspace.us/RankingTables.htm.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IDU, Buy IYW

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKX, Buy Cash

Investors dumped tech stocks in favor of value and small-cap stocks, leading to a major shift in stock market sectors. Previously hot chip stocks like NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing fell the most. Economic data showed mixed signals: June retail sales were surprisingly strong, while jobless claims increased. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that keeping interest rates too high for too long could hurt the economy. Economists now fully expect a rate cut in September. For the week, the S&P 500 went down 0.71%, closing at 5505. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.72%, and the Nasdaq composite index plunged 3.65%.

The stock market hit a rough patch after reaching a high near our target of 5700. The S&P 500 fell to 5505 after three days of heavy selling in technology stocks. The index is still trading above its 28-week exponential moving average, but some technical indicators (bearish engulfing candle stick pattern and falling momentum) suggest a potential pullback. If the price falls further, a key support level to watch is around 5265 which corresponds to the previous high and the 28-week EMA. This could be a good opportunity to buy, similar to what happened in April. But we will make our determination when we get there.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/12/2024

Stocks continued their rallies broadly this week with small-caps companies leading the way. Investors' sentiments were supported by the positive inflation data. Consumer Price Index released on Thursday by the Labor Department went down 0.1% in June making it the first decline since May 2020. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 0.87%, closing at 5615. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.59%, and the Nasdaq composite index went up 0.25%.

The S&P 500 index is currently 8.6% above its 28-week exponential moving average and continues to march higher. The index is at an all-time high and any bad news can trigger large swings. Our next target level for the index is 5700, but caution is needed as market corrections can occur without warnings.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 7/5/2024

The stock market kicked off the second half of the year on a positive note, reaching another record high. This rally was fueled by investor anticipation of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Weaker-than-expected economic data, including manufacturing and service PMI readings on Monday and Wednesday, as well as the soft June jobs report released Friday, pointed to a slowing economy. The S&P 500 climbed 1.95% for the week, closing at 5567. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.66%, and the Nasdaq composite index surged 3.54%.

The S&P 500 has continued its strong performance, reaching new record highs. This momentum could propel the index toward our next target level of 5700 with ease, but caution is still warranted as market corrections can occur even during bullish trends.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/28/2024

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell FXI, Buy IYW

Stock markets remained mostly unchanged this week as investors adjusted their portfolios at the end of the first half of the year. On the economic data front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, which showed that prices excluding food and energy rose 0.1% month over month in May. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. This positive data increased investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.08% to close at 5460, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.08%, while the Nasdaq composite index went up 0.24%.

The S&P 500 index briefly surpassed our target of 5500 on Friday but fell back before closing. Despite this, our forecast for the index remains unchanged from last week. We believe a period of sideways movement or a minor pullback could actually solidify the foundation for the rally to continue in the latter half of the year

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/21/2024

Stock markets hit new highs again this week, with value stocks leading the charge over the growth and tech stocks. Despite weaker consumer spending data, with May retail sales missing expectations, a positive surprise came from the manufacturing sector. The PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.7, indicating continued strength in manufacturing. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.61% to close at 5464, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.45%, and the Nasdaq composite index remained flat.

The S&P 500 index dipped after briefly surpassing our target of 5500 on Thursday, closing lower for two straight days. Despite this short pullback, the index remains in a strong uptrend following a robust 9-week rally. It sits comfortably above its 28-week exponential moving average with strong upward momentum. We anticipate the index to maintain its overall upward trajectory, with potential periods of sideways consolidation.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/14/2024

Trading signal occurs in HSA model portfolio: Sell CSMUX, Buy MLAIX

US major indices closed mixed with technology and growth stocks outperforming the general markets. Enthusiasm about Artificial Intelligence continued to propped up tech sectors and the favorable inflation data released during the week boosted growth stocks. On Wednesday, the Labor Department reported that the May CPI (Consumer Price Index) was flat month over month and the core CPI was 0.2% month over month, 0.1% below expectation. On an annual basis, the CPI was 3.3 % year over year which was also 0.1% below expectation. In addition, data released on Thursday by the Labor Department showed that the May core Produce Price Index (PPI) was flat month over month, significantly below the expected 0.3% and the PPI was -0.2%, way below the expected +0.1%. Although these data were released after the Fed's decision to hold the interest rate steady for now and may have only one cut this year, investors hoped the progress in inflation could soften the Fed's future decision. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.58% to 5431, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.54%, and the Nasdaq composite index shot up 3.24%.

The S&P 500 continued its strong run this week, climbing 1.58%. The index remains well above its 28-week exponential moving average, indicating that its upward momentum is strengthening. We are optimistic that the index will hit its next target of 5500 soon.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 6/7/2024

US major indices closed higher with growth stocks outperforming the value stocks. Data released during the week painted a mixed picture of the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which gauges manufacturing activity fell to 48.7 below the 50.0 growth threshold, while the Labor Department reported US added 272000 jobs in May, well above the expected 182000 jobs. Analysts think that the FED will continue to keep the interest rate steady for the summer under the cooling manufacturing activities and hot labor market economic conditions. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.32% to 5346, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.29%, and the Nasdaq composite index shot up 2.38%.

A divergence between the S&P 500 index and its momentum indicator has started to develop in the weekly chart. The index has made another all-time high while its momentum indicator did not reach its previous high. The slowing momentum suggests that the recent uptrend may have slowly lost steam, and a consolidation period may be on the horizon. The index has continued its up trend after 3 weeks of sideway consolidation and reached our first resistance target of 5340. With the slowing momentum, it is uncertain if the index can reach its second resistance level at 5500.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index