Fund Rankings Update, 3/7/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Ongoing tariff concerns significantly impacted investor sentiment, leading to a third consecutive week of stock market declines. Trade policy uncertainties remained central, particularly following the implementation of 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on Chinese imports. Although the Trump administration later announced a series of exemptions, the resulting volatility and unpredictability negatively affected investor confidence.  For the week, the S&P 500 dropped by 3.1%, closing at 5,770. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a decrease of 2.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite experienced a substantial decline of 3.45%.   

The S&P 500's close at 5770 this week confirms an ongoing correction phase, as it dipped below both its 28-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 5848 and its previous low of 5773. While temporary relief rallies are possible, the index is now in a clear downtrend. Investors should closely monitor its behavior at key support and resistance levels. On the weekly chart, the first support level lies around 5600, followed by a stronger support near 5200. Conversely, the 28-week EMA, previously a support, now acts as the initial resistance at 5848, and the previous high around 6100 provides a stronger second resistance.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

 

Fund Rankings Update, 2/28/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in SSPP model portfolio: Sell FDEGX, Buy FCNTX

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSLBX, Buy FBMPXX

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWS, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell FEMKXS, Buy Cash

Most stocks declined over the week, with the tech stocks experiencing the most loss. Ongoing concerns about tariffs and slowing economic growth continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Economic data further fueled these concerns, with jobless claims rising by 22,000 to 242,000—the highest level since October 2024—and consumer confidence dropping seven points in February, the sharpest monthly decline in three years. The S&P 500 fell 0.98% for the week, closing at 5,954. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.95%, while the Nasdaq composite index plummeted by 3.47%.    

The S&P 500 tested the 5850 trend line support this week, rebounding to close at 5954, above the 28-week exponential moving average.  Maintaining this trend line support is critical.  As previously noted, the index remains in a consolidation phase between 5850 and 6090.  A drop below 5850, particularly with a close below the prior low of 5773, would confirm a correction.  The index's performance in the coming week will be pivotal in determining its future trajectory.  

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/21/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IGV, Buy FXI

Trading signal occurs in RSP model portfolio: Sell ARGFX, Buy FCNTX

Stocks closed lower as President Trump announced his intention for additional 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and chips.  Economic data suggesting a slowing economy further dampened investor confidence. The S&P Global flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached a 17-month low of 50.4, with the service PMI at 49.7 (readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction).  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.66%, closing at 6013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite index both decreased by 2.51%.    

The S&P 500 pulled back below the 6090 resistance level after briefly reaching a record high of 6147. Crucially, the index failed to close above 6128, a level needed to confirm a continued uptrend.  The index remains in a sideways consolidation pattern, bounded by support at 5850 and resistance at 6090.  A breakout above the resistance or below the support will determine the index's future direction. 

The Weekly Chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/14/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Stocks closed higher with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Investors were relieved that President Trump did not immediately introduce the global reciprocal tariffs but signed an order to postpone it until April 1 after further study, which leaves room for country-by-country negotiations.  On the economic front, all eyes were on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Produce Price Index (PPI), which were released on Wednesday and Thursday.  The CPI came in 0.5% month over month in January and 3.0% year over year.  The PPI advanced 0.4% in January also higher than the expectation. The hotter-than-expected inflation data have prompted Fed Chair Jerome Powell to make the comment that the Fed will keep the policy restrive for longer to bring down the inflation in front of the Senate Banking Committee. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.47%, closing at 6114, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.55%,    and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index jumped 2.58%. 

The S&P 500 finished the week above the 6090 resistance level signaling an attempt to break out of its recent consolidation pattern on the weekly chart.  A confirmed breakout, and a continuation of the uptrend, would be signaled by a close above the previous high of 6128, completing a higher-high formation.  Current momentum suggests a positive outlook, and we remain bullish on the S&P 500's potential for further gains. 

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 2/7/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in sETF model portfolio: Sell IYZ, Buy IAI

Stocks recovered from a large sell-off at the start of the week as President Trump's imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico received a postponement for 30 days.  Positive company earnings also helped investors' sentiment.  77% of the companies that have reported quarterly earnings so far have met or exceeded the expectations. Economic indicators presented a mixed picture. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) demonstrated growth in the manufacturing sector during January. However, job growth figures fell short of projections, raising concerns about a potential weakening in the labor market.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, closing at 6025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average went down 0.54%,    and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index declined 0.53%. 

The S&P 500 index is clearly in a side-way consolidation around 6000, as seen in the weekly chart. The long-term upward trend remains intact, with the index staying above its 28-week exponential average. However, it's important to note that the index is currently testing a resistance level around 6090. A successful break above this level could end the consolidation phase and pave the way for a renewed upward trend.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/31/2025

The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Major indices closed mixed this week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the only index to see gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both ended the week in the red.  Several factors influenced investor sentiment this week. Positive earnings reports from tech giants Meta and Apple provided some optimism, while in-line core inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation may be working. However, concerns about tariffs and the emergence of a lower-cost AI model from China led to a sell-off in tech stocks.  For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.0%, closing at 6040, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27%, while the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index declined 1.64%. 

The S&P 500 pulled back from the key resistance level of 6100. This follows a significant recovery after a Deep Seek AI related sell-off earlier in the week, with the index now stabilizing around 6000.  As seen on the weekly chart, this period of consolidation has been ongoing for the past three months. With the index maintaining its upward trend and strong momentum, a breakout toward the 6220-6300 price range is expected once this consolidation phase concludes.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

Fund Rankings Update, 1/24/2025

 The Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, and sETF have been posted on the "Rankings", and "Trading Logs" pages.

Trading signal occurs in FEMKX timing system: Sell Cash, Buy FEMKX

Stocks closed higher as Wall Street celebrated President Trump's inauguration. Investors' sentiment was also helped by Trump's decision not to impose new tariffs on day one, as he promised during the campaign trail. Instead, he ordered federal agencies to review U.S. trade policies to determine the impact of potential future tariffs. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 1.74%, closing at 6101, a new record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.15%, and the technology-laden Nasdaq composite index advanced 1.66%. 

The S&P 500 Index has made a new record high, which confirms the renewal of the upward trend. The weekly chart shows the higher high and higher low patterns. Given the high upward momentum, we expect the index to march higher toward the 6220-6300 level.

The weekly chart of the S&P 500 index

The weekly chart of the FEMKX