Fund Rankings Update, 3/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWG, Buy EWC

Better economy news and strong company earnings helped stocks rebound from their support levels. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1313 up 2.70%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3.05%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index increased3.76% for the week.

There was not much change in the sector trend. The energy related sectors still hold top momentum rankings among US domestic sectors, while global regions are still struggling to find a major theme. Our holding of EWG in iETF model portfolio has dropped below 7th rank and is replaced by EWC.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Uncertainty due to Japan's nuclear crisis dragged down the stock market for another week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1279 down 1.92%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.54%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index suffered a loss of 2.65% for the week.

In the last blog post, I pointed out that stock market is due for a technical consolidation or correction. If you look at the weekly chart of S&P 500 index below, you can see that the price is heading down toward the trend line and its momentum (STO[15,1]) is declining fast. Holding at the support will be the key to keep this rally going and we shall see how things develop in the next few weeks.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Market was affected not by economy new but by political development in the middle east and the earthquake and tsunami hitting Japan early Friday morning. Technically, I think the market is due for a consolidation or a correction. Stocks ended this week on the downside, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1304 down 1.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.03%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 2.48% for the week.

While the overall market is heading toward consolidation or maybe even a correction, there was no change in sector leadership and regional leadership. Energy related sectors still dominate the SELECT and sETF ranking tables while Canada and west European countries are still leading the pack in iETF ranking table.

Fund Rankings Update, 3/4/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in ETF model portfolio: Sell IYM, Buy IYE.

Private sectors added more jobs in February and push the employment below 9%. This provides the final indicator that the economy recovery is in a sound footing. However, the unrest in the middle east which push the oil price to the highest level since 2008 may threaten the economy growth. Stocks ended this week almost flat, the S&P 500 index closed this week at 1321 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.33%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.13% for the week.

Energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets due the rising oil prices. In the ETF ranking table, IYM is pushing out of the top 10 ranking and causing our model portfolio to sell the fund and replace it with top ranked IYE. In global regions, Canada and Germany hold the top two momentum rankings.

Here is an update of our FEMKX timing model (I have not done this for a while), which trades only Fidelity Emergent Market Fund, FEMKX. The system will buy FEMKX if its technical momentum indicator, slow STO[15,1], climbs above 50, hold the fund at least for a month, and sell it if its slow STO[15,1] falls below 75. We sold FEMKX on 1/31/2011 and held cash on the side line since then. The STO[15,1] of FEMKX as shown in the chart below, went down to the low of 22 two weeks ago and bounced back afterwards. I am watching closely the price movement of FEMKX as its STO[15,1] currently stands at 40, and we will buy back FEMKX when its STO[15,1] climbs above 50. The trading record for the FEMKX timing model can be found in the "SELECT_Log" page.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/25/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in SELECT model portfolio: Sell FSAVX, Buy FSESX.

Stocks' winning steak came to an end this past week. Unrest in Libya caused big volatility in oil price and sent stocks into the negative territory. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1319 down 1.72%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 2.1%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index lost 1.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors still led the way in the US markets. Oil price has been trending up and exhibited great volatility since "Jasmine revolution" in the middle east. In SELECT ranking table, automotive sector fund, FSAVX has fallen below 7th rank and is replaced with the current top ranked energy service fund, FSESX. Global markets still underperformed US markets. In the iETF ranking table the top ranked fund has been changed hands several times in the past three months, indicating that there is major investment theme in the global market.

This rally has been going on since last September, and it may need to take a break as investors re-assessing their portfolios in lieu of the political development in the middle east. We don't know where the market is heading until we get there. In the meantime, we can stick to our investment strategies and ride this uncertainty out.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/18/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Trading signal occurs in iETF model portfolio: Sell EWT, Buy EWG.

Stocks went up for the third week. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1343 up 1.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.96%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 0.87% for the week.

Small cap, and energy related sectors are leading the way in the US markets, while Korea, and Taiwan lost their shine in global regions and replaced by Germany and Austria. Stocks in global regions still underperformed their US counterparts. Comparing the weekly charts of S&P500 index and FEMKX, we can see that S&P 500 index is still in the up trend with high momentum while FEMKX has been in the consolidation mode with falling momentum since last November.

Fund Rankings Update, 2/11/2011

Weekly Average Momentum Index (AMI) rankings of HSA, SSPP, RSP, SELECT, ETF, iETF, sETF have been posted at http://sites.google.com/site/ycprankings/

Stocks continued their climbing. The S&P 500 index closed this week at 1329 up 1.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.5%, and the technology laden Nasdaq composite index gained 1.45% for the week.